How Many 2021 Garbage Pail Kids OS 4 Chrome Cards Were Produced?

After the very successful return of Chrome to the GPK brand with 2020 Chrome OS 3, it was a no brainer that Topps would continue the line. Covid had other ideas. Printer and paper stock shortages caused the set to be delayed, and collectors had a 20 month gap between chrome sets. That hasn’t deterred Topps from increasing the print run for Chrome 4 dramatically. As you will soon see, production is huge for this release. The only silver lining? Chrome 4 is less than Boom Worms, ending the consecutive streak of set over set increases. Let’s take a look and see just how much 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 is out there.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

Chrome is a unique product that is dominated by numbered parallels. Because of that, Topps has done most of the work for us. Therefore, we can get all the production info done in one article. Not only that, but Topps has made it super simple to figure out production numbers. After eliminating Fat Packs from the Chrome line, it leaves us with just two box types. Each box type has exclusive numbered parallels, so we can easily determine total print run and the print run of each box type.

There are three exclusive numbered parallels inserted into Hobby boxes. Let’s start by taking a look at those.

  • Orange borders – 100 cards in set * 75 made per card = 7,500 total Orange borders * 131 odds = 982,500 total Hobby packs
  • Black Wave – 100 cards in set * 99 made per card = 9900 total BW borders * 100 odds = 990.000 total Hobby packs
  • Red borders – 100 cards in set * 5 made per card = 500 total Red borders * 1,951 odds = 975,500 total Hobby packs

Well all those numbers are pretty darn close to each other. Let’s go with the one in the middle, and use 982,500 as the total Hobby pack production. Woah! Almost one million hobby packs!!! Wow! Topps has dramatically increased the hobby production in Chrome 4. Now let’s take a look at Retail Blaster production. We can look at the two different numbered parallels inserted into Blaster packs.

  • Black borders – 100 cards in set * 99 made per card = 9900 total Black borders * 84 odds = 832,500 total Blaster packs
  • Gold borders – 100 cards in set * 50 made per card = 5,000 total Gold borders * 166 odds = 830,000 total Blaster packs

Once again those numbers are really close. Let’s use the round number of 830,000 as the total Blaster pack production. Once again, we see that production is increased for Retail packs over Chrome 3, although not quite as big of an increase compared to Hobby packs.

Well that was easy! Thanks Topps, this may be the easiest they’ve ever made it to figure out production numbers. Let’s take a look at how production compares to previous Chrome releases.

  • Total Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 1,096,370
    • Chrome OS 2 – 513,260
    • Chrome OS 3 – 1,310,000
    • Chrome OS 4 – 1,812,500
  • Hobby Pack Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 407,000
    • Chrome OS 2 – 71,500
    • Chrome OS 3 – 560,000
    • Chrome OS 4 – 982,500 (40,937 boxes/3,411 cases)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 689,370
    • Chrome OS 2 – 441,760
    • Chrome OS 3 – 750,000
    • Chrome OS 4 – 830,000 (138,333 boxes/3,358 cases)

The thing that stands out first is the huge increase in the Hobby pack production numbers. Over 400k more hobby packs than Chrome 3. Over double the hobby packs of Chrome 1. Retail is certainly up as well, but not by as much as Hobby. Since I’ve been looking at production numbers, Chrome 4 is the first time that Hobby production is higher than Retail production. The demand from distributors, hobby stores, and online retailers was off the charts for this release.

Next, let’s take a look at the production for the few unnumbered card types in the set. Refractors, Atomic Refractors, and C Name cards are all unnumbered. With Chrome 3, I had to do some math gymnastics to come to a reasonable number for these card types. Topps however made it easy for us this time.

  • C Name Variation – 1,812,500 total packs / 100 odds = 18,125 total C cards / 48 cards in set = 377 each C Name Variation.
  • Refractors – 1,812,500 total packs / 3 odds  = 604,166 Total Refractors / 100 cards in set = 6,041 each regular Refractor
  • Atomic Refractors – 830,000 total Blaster packs / 2 odds = 415,000 total Atomics / 100 cards in set = 4,150 each Atomic Refractor.

The production of the unnumbered parallels above certainly match the increased pack numbers we saw earlier. More Atomics, Refractors, and C Names than any other Chrome set to date.

With Chrome 4 Topps couldn’t make things completely perfect for us. Everything has been so easy to figure out so far because Topps gave us all the info we need. However, what happens if Topps supplies the incorrect odds on the pack? Topps did just that with Printing Plates and Autos on Chrome 4 packs. Blaster packs show both Plate and Auto odds to be 1:915, and Hobby packs have the Auto odds as 1:915. Someone at Topps loves the number 915, but it isn’t correct. How do we know? By using the pack production numbers and the odds applied it’s impossible for the odds to be correct. For example using the auto odds supplied it comes out to just under 2000 autos in the set. That’s a neat trick considering there are only (23 auto cards * /50 each) 1,150 autos in the product. Using the Plate odds results in a similar problem. So can we figure out what the odds really are for Printing Plates and Autos? I think we can, buts it’s going to take some assumptions and a leap of faith on our part. Let’s work on Printing Plates first. Topps actually showed the Plate odds on Hobby packs as 1:3,202. I believe those odds are correct. Not only because it’s not the number 915, but because the math works out.

  • Plates Hobby – 982,500 / 3,201 Hobby plate odds = 306 Printing Plates in Hobby.
  • Plates Blaster – 830,000 / 96 plates in blasters = 1:8,645 Blaster Printing Plate Odds

We know there are 400 plates inserted in the set. If we assume the Hobby plate odds are correct, that’s gives us 306 in Hobby, leaving just 94 plates in Blaster packs. Why do I believe this is correct? Thanks to the excellent work of GPK collector Jason Tipps. He calculated that there is just over 23% of each parallel type inserted in Blasters. The numbers are consistent for every numbered parallel that’s in both Blasters and Hobby packs. As luck would have it 94 plates in Blasters is 24% of 400! That right there is consistent with the numbers Tipps calculated. Therefore, I’m fairly confident in saying the Plate odds on hobby packs is correct and the Blaster Plate odds should be right around 1:8,645. How about Artist Autos? What if we use the same 23% theory on the Autos? 23% of the autos inserted would be 264 autos in Blasters, leaving 886 in Hobby packs. The odds would look like this.

  • Blaster autos – 830,000 packs / 264 autos in blasters = 1:3,143 Blaster Auto Odds
  • Hobby autos – 982,500 packs / 886 autos in Hobby = 1:1,108 Hobby Auto Odds

Ok, so with autos we are taking a few liberties and assumptions that I’m not comfortable in saying these are the accurate Auto odds. But given the 23% theory, this is a great guess at what the actual auto odds look like in the set.

It’s clear the demand for GPKs has increased quite dramatically over the last two years. With every set release we see production numbers keep rising. Chrome 4 is the highest produced chrome set by far. It’s also is the second highest modern set produced, since 2010, behind Book Worms. Collecting GPKs has changed over the past few years. That can easily be seen with the influx of new collectors and money into the hobby. The question now is, how long can Topps retain this demand for GPKs?

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! I feel safe using 3.5 base cards per pack as a good number. Just over half the hobby packs per box has 3 cards. Many blaster packs seem to have 5 cards, which makes up for a higher percent of packs having a parallel. So we are going to use 3.5 base cards per pack.

Base Cards – 1,812,500 total packs * 3.5 base cards per pack = 6,343,750 Total Base Cards produced / 100 cards per set = 63,437 Total of each base card.

That’s 18,000 more base sets possible compared to Chrome 3!!! That’s a lot of shiny cards!

2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 Explained

After months of delays GPK Chrome fanatics finally get their wish with the release of 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4. Sure collectors didn’t have to wait as long as they did between Chrome 2 and Chrome 3, but a 20 month wait between releases was tough for some! The newest Chrome release highlights the Original Series 4 set from 1986. The complete base set features 100 cards. All 84 original cards, (125a/b – 166a/b), appear in the set. Topps also included the four original name changes they made half way through printing. The four are additional “b” cards for cards 125b, 149a, 158b, and 164b. (Even though 149a was the replaced card, Topps numbered it 149b in this Chrome series.) The name changes were made to try to avoid potential lawsuits from companies and celebrities who weren’t pleased with being a GPK. There are also 12 all new cards, 6 new paintings with a/b versions, (AN1a/b – AN6a/b). Artists David Gross, Brent Engstrom, and Joe Simko all did two paintings each for the set. In a welcomed change from Chrome 3, Topps used the original back card art for this set. Engstrom did the back art for the new cards. Once again, the the base cards feature a silver border.

It wouldn’t be chrome without a whole lot of parallels. This set continues that tradition. There are 19 different parallel versions collectors can chase for this release. Each box type has three exclusive parallels. Hobby exclusive parallels are Black Wave, Orange, and Red, while Blaster box exclusive parallels are Black, Gold, and Atomic. Once again, there are also not many inserts to collect, only “C” name and Artist Autographs. It also wouldn’t be Topps if there wasn’t a slew of errors made within the set. In addition to the weird numbering choice on the 149b name variation, Topps also decided to add an e to the end of the name of card #137a. What is suppose to be Max Axe, is instead Maxe Axe. The error looks to be uncorrected as all versions are the same. Topps also left out an “l” on card 127a. Travellin’ Travis is instead Travelin’ Travis. Artist Autographs also were the victim of a printing error. All New cards done by David Gross and Joe Simko are not autographed, only Engstrom autos made the cut for the set. Topps was also only able to get former artist Tom Bunk to sign cards for the set. Finally, the odds on both Hobby and Blaster packs for autos, and Blaster packs for Printing Plates are incorrect. Based on production numbers the odds don’t work for the actual number of autos and plates inserted into the set. I’ll have more on this in a production article in the coming days.

Based on an early look at the odds, production is up quite a bit from Chrome 3. The odds on some parallels and autos will make for some very tough pulls for collectors. I will have articles in the coming days going over production numbers. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find and where you can find it in 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set –  (100 Cards).
    • OS 4 125a/b – 165a/b (84 Cards)
    • Name Change Variations 125b, 149b, 158b, and 164b (4 Cards)
    • New Art AN1a/b – AN6a/b (12 Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different color border or background pattern.
    • Refractor – 1:3 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
    • Atomic Refractor – 1:2 Blaster (100)
    • Green Refractor /299 – 1:120 – Blaster Pack, 1:43 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Green Wave Refractor /299 – 1:120 – Blaster Pack, 1:43 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Yellow Refractor /275 – 1:130 – Blaster Pack, 1:47 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Yellow Wave Refractor /275 – 1:130 – Blaster Pack, 1:47 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Purple Refractor /250 – 1:143 – Blaster Pack, 1:52 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Purple Wave Refractor /250 – 1:143 – Blaster Pack, 1:52 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Prism Refractor /199 – 1:180 – Blaster Pack, 1:65 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Prism Aqua Refractor /199 – 1:180 – Blaster Pack, 1:65 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • X-Fractor /150 – 1:238 – Blaster Pack, 1:86 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Black Refractor /99 – 1:84 – Blaster (100 Cards)
    • Black Wave Refractor /99 – 1:100 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Gold Refractor /50 – 1:166 – Blaster (100 Cards)
    • Rose Gold Refractor /25 –1:1,430 – Blaster Pack, 1:512 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Orange Refractor /75 – 1:131 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Red Refractor /5 – 1:1,951 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Superfractor 1/1 – 1:40,165 – Blaster Pack, 1:12,834 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:915(Incorrect) – Blaster Pack, 1:3,201 – Hobby (400 Total Plates – 4 per card A & B)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • C Name Variations – 1:100 Hobby/Blaster (48 Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /50 – 1:915(Incorrect) Hobby/Blaster (23 Cards – 141a/b, 148a/b, 150a/b, 151a/b, 152a/b, 154a/b, 155a/b, 156a/b, 158a/b/b, AN1a/b, AN2a/b)

2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 Hobby Odds

GPK Chrome collectors just can’t wait for release day, as hobby box odds have begin showing up for 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4. Thanks to collector Castdown Jenkins for sending along pictures of the hobby pack odds. There isn’t a lot of mystery with this release as Topps is limiting it to only two box types. While retail Blaster production was up slight over Chrome 3, an early look at the Hobby shows double the hobby packs over Chrome 3. In fact it appears there are more Hobby packs than Blaster packs. Like with the Blaster odds, it appears the odds listed for Artist Autographs are incorrect. Based on initial production the odds don’t work for the number of autos inserted into packs. I’ll have much more with a details production article in the coming days. Here are the Hobby pack odds for 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4.

2021 GPK Chrome OS 4 Hobby Pack Odds

  • Refractor 1:3
  • Green Refractor 1:43
  • Green Wave Refractor 1:43
  • Yellow Refractor 1:47
  • Yellow Wave Refractor 1:47
  • Purple Refractor 1:52
  • Purple Wave Refractor 1:52
  • Prism Refractor 1:65
  • Prism Aqua Refractor 1:65
  • X-Fractor 1:86
  • Black Wave Refractor 1:100
  • Orange Refractor 1:131
  • Rose Gold Refractor 1:512
  • Red Refractor 1:1,951
  • Superfractor 1:12,834
  • Printing Plate 1:3,201
  • Artist Autograph 1:915 (Incorrect)
  • C Name Variation 1:100

Topps Reveals Checklist for 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4

We are just one week away from the next chrome GPK release. Today, Topps revealed the checklist for 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4. The set was originally suppose to launch in Nov. 2021, but was delayed like many other Topps sets the last two years. Like previous Chrome releases, this set reprints the OS 4 set in shiny thicker card stock. The base checklist consists of 100 cards, 88 from OS 4 (42 originals with a/b versions) and 12 new cards (6 new pieces with a/b versions). Artists Joe Simko, David Gross, and Brent Engstrom each did two new paintings for the set. In a bit of a surprise cards 125b, 149a, 158b, and 164b, are listed twice on the checklist. Both the original “famous” name, and the changed name versions will be in the set. There are also 48 “C” name cards, one for each painting in the set, that will be randomly inserted into packs. These feature brand new names for the existing artwork.

Chrome sets are primarily known for their numerous parallel cards of the base sets instead of insert sets. This release is no exception as there are no new insert sets to collect. However, the popular artist autographs return. There are a total of 23 autographs in the set. Original series artists Tom Bunk signed all the “a” and “b” names for the 9 cards he painted for the set (158b has autos for both name versions). Artists John Pound and David Burke did not sign cards for the set. Due to a printing error by Topps, the only new cards have autos are the two pieces by Brent Engstrom. You can check out the complete checklist here. 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 is set to be released 8/24/22. 

Topps Shares Box Art for Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4

Haven’t completed your Book Worms set yet? Well hurry up! The next retail GPK set is just on the horizon. After a nine month delay, Topps is set to release 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4. Topps has shared with GPKNews images of the box art for the upcoming set. There are only two box/pack types being offered for this set, a 24 pack Hobby box, and a 6 pack Value (Blaster) Box. The hobby boxes feature Adam Bomb with a yellow and Orange color scheme. The box advertises collectors can find a variety of exclusive colored chrome parallels inside. As expected, the Blaster boxes, that collectors will be able to find at Target and Walmart, advertise each box contains 3 exclusive Atomic Refractor cards. The Blaster box also features Adam Bomb and the same color scheme, but in addition has Bony Tony and Mouth Phil on the top and side of the box. All you crazy chrome collectors get ready, Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 is set to release 8/24/22.

Garbage Pail Kids Release Date Updates

Topps today sent out their regular email to update distributors on release dates for sets through October of this year. There are plenty of GPK updates to share!

First, updates on what didn’t change. 2022S1 Book Worms and 2021 Chrome OS 4, remain with their current set release dates. Book Worms should be shipping from Topps, and remains with a 7/27/22 release date. Chrome OS 4 also remains with the 8/24/22 release date. Now for what did change. 2021S2 GPK Vacation has been updated to “TBD Sept.” Sticker stock shortages have continuing to cause future retail releases to slip.

The big news from this week’s email was the addition of 2022S2 GPK. That set has not officially been announced by Topps yet. The set is listed with a release date of 10/26/22. Artists have recently completed artwork for the set. So more GPK sets are on the horizon as Topps tried to get back on the regular release schedule.

Topps Delays Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4

Two weeks ago Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 finally got a release date from Topps after months of being “TBD”. Today however, Topps has delayed the set by a couple of weeks. The set still has a release date, but now is scheduled for 8/24/22. Collectors will need a little more patience until they get their Chrome fix.

In other release date news 2022S1 GPK Book Worms remains with a 7/27/22 release date. In this week’s update Topps also moved 2021S2 GPK Vacation to “Aug. TBD”. It’s expected to be a few months still until Vacation releases.

2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 Gets Release Date from Topps

GPK Chrome collectors rejoice, we now have a release date. In today’s email to distributors, Topps has given 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 4 a release date of 8/5/22. GPK Chrome has been listed as TBD for months after being originally scheduled for a Nov. 2021 release. The product was delayed as printer and card shortages shortages have ravaged the trading card industry.

2022S1 GPK Book Worms remains with a 7/27/22 release date on the calendar. Word begin coming down yesterday that distributors were informed of Book Worms impending release and the cancellation of Blasters. GPKNews has heard from additional sources today that have confirmed the same information being shared with them as well. It would appear collectors will be getting two sets  very close together.

Meanwhile, 2021S2 GPK Vacation remains July TBD on the calendar. GPKNews has heard from multiple sources that the set will continue to be delayed due to shortage of sticker card stock, with delays anticipated for months.

As always, collectors shouldn’t trust release date updates on online sellers websites as they generally use placeholder dates until official updates from Topps are released.

2022S1 GPK Book Worms Releasing First, Blasters Cancelled

GPK collectors might have some hope a retail set will be releasing soon! At least one retail distributor was told today from Topps upcoming shipping plans for 2022 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Book Worms. Topps is planning on releasing Book Worms first. However, the popular Value Boxes (Blasters) are being cancelled. Topps told the distributor this was due to lack of available sticker stock. GPKNews had heard a few weeks back Topps was having trouble getting sticker card stock to print GPK sets. They will still be shipping the 24 pack Retail Display Boxes. There is no update on the planned Wal-Mart exclusive Mega Boxes. The distributor told GPKNews that orders for display boxes could not be increased, only original allocations would be honored. The distributor was told shipping from Topps would occur in the next 10-15 days. GPKNews does not have an update on Collector boxes as we have not heard any updates from Hobby Distributors.

Word of cancelling of Blasters is not surprising, as shortly after sketch artists received sketch blanks from Topps for Book Worms they were told to not sketch the panoramic or loaded puzzle sketch cards. Both those types are found exclusively in Blasters.

There is no update yet on what will happen to the GPK Gets Graphic Insert cards or Yellow parallels that are usually exclusive to Blasters.  There are also no official release date updates from Topps yet. GPKNews has reached out to Topps for official comment, but has not heard back. As for 2021S2 Vacation, GPKNews also asked Topps for a status of that set. GPKNews continues to hear that work continues on the Vacation set. More than likely Topps had a contract with Walmart for the exclusive Mega Boxes that they had to meet, which would explain Book Worms releasing first.

Oh yeah, the distributor was also told Topps is trying to get 2021 Chrome Blasters shipped by mid-July. More info as we get it!

This Week’s Release Date Changes from Topps for GPK Retail Sets

Last week’s release calendar update from Topps brought some hope to collectors when 2021 GPK Chrome was moved to July TBD, while 2021S2 Vacation remained with a June TBD date. However, that hope was dashed with today’s newest update to distributors from Topps as 2021S2 GPK Vacation was updated to July TBD. With this week’s updates, both GPK sets are now the last remaining sets with a TBD on the calendar. 2022S1 Book Worms remained with a 7/27/22 release date. Collectors should not trust online sellers release dates as the companies usually use the last Wednesday of the month as a placeholder date.