Tag Archives: Odds

Collector’s heads might be spinning a bit after the latest GPK release, 2025 Worst of Garbage Pail Kids 40th Anniversary Edition. After more than a decade of massive overproduction of retail sets, Topps pulled a 180, with a much smaller print run. The product being Hobby only, coupled with a complete restructure of the set structure, puts this set in a whole new realm. Can production be compared to past sets? Is it bigger than recent online releases? Bigger than Sapphire? Let take a look and see just where the 40th anniversary set fits in.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think it’s dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

Being a Hobby only release makes this exercise really easy. There is only one set of odds to deal with. As long as there is at least one numbered card type, and the odds Topps printed are correct, it’s a piece of cake. Luckily, Topps loves their parallels. For the most part, the odds do seem to be accurate based on case breaks, with a handful of exceptions we will go over below. We have a couple of dozen examples we can use to figure out total production. Let’s take a look at a few and see what that gives us.

• Gold A Parallel – 100 cards in set * 50 made per card = 5,000 total Gold A * 42 odds = 210,000 total Hobby packs
• Foilfractor A Parallel – 100 cards in set * 1 made per card = 100 total Foilfractor A * 2,101 odds = 210,100 total Hobby packs
• C Cards Orange Parallel – 23 cards in set * 25 made per card = 575 total C Oranges * 365 odds = 209,875 total Hobby packs
• Global Takeover Gold Parallel – 20 cards in set * 50 made per card = 1000 total Takeover Golds * 209 odds = 209,000 total Hobby packs

As I mentioned above, easy. All four of the numbers above are within 1,100 of each other. You can look at any of the other odds printed and come up with similar results. The variation is due to Topps rounding odds, but everything is really close. So, we are going to go with 210,000 total packs produced. That works out to 26,250 boxes, or 2,625 cases. We’ve never seen a retail set produced that small.

How do these numbers compare to recent releases? Let’s take a look at the most recent Chrome, Sapphire, retail, and online packed out release.

• 40th Anniversary – 210,000
• 2024 Sapphire – 45,000
• Chrome 7 – 1,612,000
• Valentine’s Day – 12,150
• Kids At Play – 2,085,000

It’s kind of hilarious to look at the numbers above and compare recent releases. However, you can clearly see 40th anniversary is much, much less than the last retail releases, Chrome 7 and Kids At Play. However, the release is much bigger than online releases like Sapphire and Valentine’s Day. The big question going forward is, if Topps will continue this structure and production with the next retail release.

Now that we know the pack production we can review how many of the various inserts and parallels were made of each type. While the set has dozens of numbered card types, there are still a few we can look at.

Usually, base cards are saved for the end of the production articles. Since Topps flipped this set upside down, let’s do that here. It’s almost like the base cards are the “hits” in the product! Here’s our first mistake collectors found on the odds sheet. Base “a” name cards were listed as 1:1, however collectors have been pulling anywhere from 16-19 per box. It’s just over 2 per pack. From hands on experience, the majority of boxes have 17 per box. We will use 17 per box for our calculations. Let’s also look at the Short Print “b” name, and Super Short Print “c” name cards.

• Base “a” cards – 17 per box * 26,250 boxes = 4,462 of each Base “a” card.
• “B” Name SP – 210,000 packs / 2 odds = 105,000 total B cards / 100 in set =‘1,050 of each B card.
• “C” Name SSP – 210,000 packs / 121 odds = 1,735 total C cards / 23 in set = 75 of each C card.

If you’re a set collector, you aren’t happy with these numbers. While 4000 base sets is possible, the actual number that gets made will be much, much less. Collectors wanting a base set might have a tougher time finding one. Want the short printed B name set? Well that one is very tough. Will take 4+ cases to just complete one b name set. How about C names? These are even rarer, according to the odds. However, it appears Topps found a way to make it impossible to collect a C set. After seeing results from 50+ cases, no base C name cards have surfaced. It looks like those didn’t make it into the product for some reason. Next, let’s look at the unnumbered parallels and common inserts.

• Green Parallel – 210,000 packs / 1 odds sheet = 210,000 total green cards / 100 in set = 2,100 of each green parallel.
• Crumpled Parallel – 210,000 packs / 120 odds sheet = 1,750 total Crumpled cards  / 100 in set = 17 of each Crumpled parallel.
• Takeover/Eras Insert – 210,000 packs / 4 odds = 52,500 total Takeover/Eras cards / 20 in set = 2,625 of each Takeover/Eras cards.
• Wacky Packages Insert – 210,000 packs / 8 odds = 26,250 total Wackys / 8 in set = 3,281 of each Wacky Packages card.

Based on what we’ve already seen, those numbers fall right in line as expected. Once again, not a huge number of insert sets out there. Set collectors are looking at one insert set in a full case. One thing that does stand out is how rare the Crumpled parallel is. At just 17 copies, those will be very tough for collectors to find. Now let’s look at the other inserts and autographs. 

• Adam Bomb Homage – 210,000 packs / 40 odds = 5,250 total Homage cards / 40 cards in set = 131 of each Homage card
• AB Homage Auto – 210,000 packs /  27 odds = 7,777 total Homage autos / 30 cards in set = 259 of each AB Homage Auto
• Artist Auto – 210,000 packs / 108 odds = 1,944 total autos / 12 cards in set = 162 of each artist auto
• OS Buybacks – 210,000 Hobby packs / 217 odds = 967 total OS Buybacks

Yes, you’re reading that right, it’s easier to pull an Adam Bomb Homage auto than it is to pull an Adam Bomb Homage insert card. Have you ever seen that before? There’s an easy explanation for this. With Topps guaranteeing an auto, sketch, or plate per box, they had to drastically raise the number of autos. 250 is a lot for a base auto. On the flip side, collectors will have a tough time putting together the regular AB Homage set with just over 100 of each available. The other strange thing on here is Buybacks. On the odds sheet Topps listed Buyback odds as 1:8. Topps confirmed with GPKNews that the odds for Buybacks and the GPK Yourself cards were inadvertently switched on the odds sheet. While Topps wouldn’t reveal which buybacks were inserted into the product, they told GPKNews it was a random assortment of OS cards. So far the ones surfaced have been stamped anywhere from 1/1 to #/7.

Worst of GPK 40th Anniversary is truly a set that might be the beginning of a new era for Garbage Pail Kids. After massively overproducing retail GPK sets for over a decade, it’s clear Topps sat down and made the decision to flip the brand on its head. How will this be received by collectors? So far due to the very limited print run, box prices are soaring. How will this set affect the brand? A limited production and high price point does not serve to bring new collectors into hobby. So the big questions is, what will Topps do going forward? We will have to wait until next year’s 2026 GPK Universe set to find out.

Finally, we usually end the production articles by looking at the most common card type in the retail sets, base cards. We covered base cards earlier, so we might as well look at the most common card in this set, GPK Yourself. As we mentioned above, Topps switched the odds on the GPK Yourself and Buyback cards. That means the real odds on the GPK Yourself contest cards is 1:8 or one per box. That means there are 26,250 total GPK Yourself cards out there! Plenty for everyone! Enter often, you might just find yourself as a Garbage Pail Kid in the next retail set. That is, if Topps can fix their code entry website…

2025 marks the 40th anniversary of Garbage Pail Kids. It’s also is the year of change for the franchise. Topps is marking the milestone with the release of 2025 Worst of Garbage Pail Kids 40th Anniversary Edition that completely changes what collectors are used to in distribution, set structure, and content.

Distribution: For the first time Topps offered a pre-order on their website one month prior to release. This has been the new Topps method for releasing products for months now, but the first time they’ve gone the route with GPK. When Fanatics purchased Topps, one of their stated missions was to eliminate the middle man, and this is one of the ways they accomplish that. Additionally, Topps held a sale on launch day, although charges $10 more per box.. Ordering directly from Topps was the only way to get boxes at MSRP. Large online box sellers and some direct stores were also able to get product, but prices quickly increased. This was a hobby only release, which means no blasters in big box retailers like Target/Walmart. After many over produced GPK releases by Topps the word is Target and Walmart are not interested in carrying non-chrome GPK sets.

Set Structure: Forget everything you know about a GPK release. It’s all different with this set. Think a Sapphire set, crossed with an online set, with some Chrome 7 sprinkled in. Gone are 24 pack boxes. Instead this Hobby only box contains just eight 5-card packs. 40 total cards per box, 400 in a 10 box case. With previous retail sets you would cross 400 cards in the third box. Gone are stickers, the cards are all on the new thicker card stock used for recent online sets like Dressed to Grotesque and MLB cards.  Topps decided to make a product that is focused on inserts, parallels, and “hits”. Set collectors will not be pleased with this one. Unlike most GPK sets, the base set is just the “a” names. Boxes are yielding 16-17 base “a” cards per box. It will take a case or more just to make a base set. Collectors who want the “b” names will need to bust 3-4 cases to make a short printed b name set. Don’t even think about C names, as those are very rare. Additionally, for some reason, after over producing GPK retail sets for years, Topps did a complete 180 with this print run. It’s larger than an online or Sapphire set, but much, much smaller than any retail sets from the last 10+ years. Topps could have easily sold out double the print run of this release. GPKNews will have a production article coming soon.

Content: If all that change wasn’t enough for collectors to digest, Topps decided to forsake new artwork and make the product a reprint set. The 100 card base set is all reprints. Instead of reprinting the best of the last 40 years, the base set is comprised of 97 OS cards, 2 ANS cards, and 1 BNS card. Most of the insert sets also use reprinted artwork. The only new artwork is in the Wacky Packages GPK Boxes, and the Adam Bomb Homage to Garbahj insert sets. After advertising the Adam Bomb set would feature 40 versions of Adam from 40 different artists, Topps limited it to 20 artists doing the 40 cards. GPKNews has learned there were many more Adam Bomb paintings submitted that went unused by Topps for an unknown reason.

The one thing Topps didn’t change was some odds being incorrect. There are a handful of mistakes collectors have noticed. Base “a” cards were advertised as 1 per pack, however they are falling 2 per pack. OS Buyback cards were shown as one per box, however they are much rarer. Meanwhile, the GPK Yourself contest cards were advertised as 1:217, however they are actually one per box. GPKNews has confirmed with Topps that the odds were inadvertently switched on the odds sheet with the Buybacks and GPK Yourself cards. Buybacks are an assortment of OS cards, some are 1/1, but others could be multiples. Topps also confirmed with GPKnews that there are printing plates for B and C cards, but no odds were listed on the odds sheet. The remaining odds look to be accurate. you can find the official checklist here. For now here is everything that can be found in 2025 Worst of GPK 40th Anniversary Edition.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base “a” Set –  (100 Cards).

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different color border or background pattern.
  • Booger Green – 1:1 (100 Cards)
  • Crumpled Garbage – 1:120 (100 Cards)
  • Purple /199 – 1:11 (100 Cards)
  • Drool Blue /99 – 1:22 (100 Cards)
  • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:42 (100 Cards)
  • 40th Anniversary Ruby /40– 1:53 (100 Cards)
  • Sour Orange /25 – 1:94 (100 Cards)
  • Bruised Black /10 – 1:209 (100 Cards)
  • Bloody Red /5 – 1:419 (100 Cards)
  • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)
  • Printing Plates 1/1
    • Cyan – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)
    • Magenta – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)
    • Yellow – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)
    • Black – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.

• • B-Name Short Print –  1:2 (100 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:22 (100 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:42 (100 Cards)
    • 40th Anniversary Ruby /40 – 1:53 (100 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:84 (100 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:209 (100 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:419 (100 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:2,101 (100 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1 – Unknown (100 cards – 4 colors)
  • C-Name Super Short Print –  1:121 (23 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:182 (23 Cards)
    • 40th Anniversary Ruby /40 – 1:228 (23 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:385 (23 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:917 (23 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:1,851 (23 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:10,084 (23 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1 – Unknown (23 cards – 4 colors)
  • Global Takeover –  1:4 (20 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:106 (20 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:209 (20 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:419 (20 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:1,045 (20 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:2,101 (20 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Black – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
  • GPK Eras –  1:4 (20 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:106 (20 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:209 (20 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:419 (20 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:1,045 (20 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:2,101 (20 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
      • Black – 1:11,864 (20 Cards)
  • Wacky Packages GPK Boxes –  1:8 (8 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:264 (8 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:523 (8 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:1,045 (8 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:2,654 (8 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:5,451 (8 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:25,204 (8Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:25,204 (8 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:25,204 (8 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:25,204 (8 Cards)
      • Black – 1:25,204 (8 Cards)
  • Homage to Garbahj –  1:40 (40 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:53 (40 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:105 (40 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:209 (40 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:523 (40 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:1,045 (40 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:5,451 (40 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:5,451 (40 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:5,451 (40 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:5,451 (40Cards)
      • Black – 1:5,451 (40 Cards)

• Autographs/Sketches/Others
  • Homage to Garbahj Autos –  1:27 (30 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:70 (30 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:140 (30 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:280 (30 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:702 (30 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:1,390 (30 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:6,952 (30 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:6,952 (30 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:6,952 (30 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:6,952 (30 Cards)
      • Black – 1:6,952 (30 Cards
  • Artist Autographs –  1:108 (12 Cards)
    • Drool Blue /99 – 1:178 (12 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold /50 – 1:351 (12 Cards)
    • Sour Orange /25 – 1:727 (12 Cards)
    • Bruised Black /10 – 1:1,738 (12 Cards)
    • Bloody Red /5 – 1:3,537 (12 Cards)
    • Foilfractor 1/1 – 1:18,330 (12 Cards)
    • Printing Plates 1/1
      • Cyan – 1:18,330 (12 Cards)
      • Magenta – 1:18,330 (12 Cards)
      • Yellow – 1:18,330 (12 Cards)
      • Black – 1:18,330 (12 Cards)
  • OG Artist Sketch Cards (? Artists)
  • Sketch Cards (? artists within 4 Tiers)
    • Green Sketch Card – 1:46
    • Silver Sketch Card – 1:143
    • Gold Sketch Card – 1:356
    • Black Sketch Card – 1:698
  • Original Series Buybacks 1:8 (Odds incorrect, correct odds 1:217)
  • GPK Yourself 1:217 (Odds Incorrect, correct odds 1:8/1 Card)