Tag Archives: Odds

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2018S2 GPK Oh the Horror-ible. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2018S2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

• Total Production – 440,000 Packs
• Collector – 60,000 Collector Packs or about 2,500 Hobby Boxes or about 312 Collector Cases
• Retail/Hobby – 380,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figure it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Spit /99, Bloody /75, and Fool’s Gold /50 for the parallels, and Patches /50 and Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Still there are some things we just can’t determine. Topps has made it tough on us in recent releases. They no longer share a lot of information on the sell sheets for insertion numbers. This means we can not figure out each different retail pack type. Therefore, there are many retail items that we are unable to determine the production on. For example, the Yellow Phlegm borders. Since there is no way to break out the number of gravity feed packs from the other retail packs, we can not determine how many Phlegm borders were made. Same scenario applies to the new Jelly Purple parallels. This also true for the various retail bonus sets; Classic Monsters (Fat Pack Insert Set), Trick or Treat (Hobby/Retail Insert Set) and Bathroom Buddies (Blasters). Production is slightly up, and Topps increased the Blaster and Fat Packs to make up for the removal of Gravity Feeds. This means the number of yellows out there could be different than previous releases. The lack of retail breakdown also means we can not determine how many Loaded Sketches or Panoramic Sketches were inserted into packs.

Let’s discuss what we can figure out.

While we can’t figure out the Yellow Phlegm or Purple Jelly parallels, we can determine how many of the other two non-numbered parallels were made. We can also find out how many of the Horror Film Poster bonus inserts were made.

• Bruised Borders – 60,000 Collector packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 60,000 total Bruised borders / 200 cards in set = 300 per card.
• Puke Borders – 380,000 Retail packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 380,000 total Puke borders / 200 cards in set = 1900 per card.
• Horror Film Poster – 60,000 Collector packs  / 24 Odds = 2500 total cards / 10 in set = 250 of each card made.

How do these numbers compare to the previous set, We Hate the 80’s? With the sharpe increase in Collector boxes, the number of Bruised parallels and Horror Film Posters increased. Likewise, with a slight decrease in retail production, the number of green cards is also down slightly, although at 1900 is still quite a bit.

One thing I always find interesting is to determine what pack types the printing plates and artist autographs are hiding? Retail always has the majority of the plates because over 80% of the production is retail, but does that hold true for this release? We know Topps inserted 400 plates and 2,500 autos into production so here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

• Collector Plates – 60,000 packs / 260 odds = 230 plates in Collector packs
• Retail/Hobby Plates – 380,000 packs / 1320 odds = 288 plates in Retail packs
• Collector Autos – 60,000 packs / 41 odds = 1463 autos in Collector packs
• Retail/Hobby Autos – 380,000 packs / 103 odds = 3,689 in Retail/Hobby packs

Wait what? There is a lot that doesn’t make sense with these numbers. Here is a big sticking point in the production numbers. We are going to have to make some serious educated guesses here to make sense of things. Let’s start with the auto numbers. First my methodology. I used 103 as the odds for retail, which is roughly what Hobby/Retail and Blasters are. Remember Fat Packs is basically a double pack, with the odds being 1:42 for autos it still doesn’t quite work out evenly, but it wouldn’t throw the numbers off as much as you see here. Based on the odds, there were over 5,000 autos inserted into packs. We know this isn’t the case because they are numbered /25, so there are a total of 2,500 autos. So why do the odds show double? I think the odds on a lot of the hits are just wrong. Logically looking at the numbers, in order to get down to the 2,500 autos we would have to halve the number of packs produced if the odds were correct. There is no way production was cut in 1/2 for this release. Therefore, the odds must be higher than stated. Here’s another way to look at it. I personally broke a number of cases of each product type. Based on the auto odds I should have received just about 2 autos per retail case, and almost 5 autos per Collector case. That just isn’t what I pulled. Retail cases I got 1 auto in every case, while one case had none. Likewise, with Collector cases I averaged 3 autos not the 4-5 I should have. Therefore, I believe the odds to be incorrect for autos on all pack types. For retail pack types they should probably be doubled. while Collector packs should also be slightly higher.

How about plates? There are a couple of very interesting things to point out. Again I believe the odds are off, albeit slightly. Based on the odds we came up with over 500 plates in the product. That’s not possible because we know only 400 plates were inserted. While the numbers aren’t off as much as autos, they are still off. The other huge change from previous sets is the number of plates found in Collector packs. Odds for Collector packs are a lot easier than the previous set. Before if you wanted a plate, you had to look at retail. With Oh the Horror-ible that isn’t the case. Collectors trying for a plate should bust Collector cases.

Topps has continued their practice of not revealing how many total sketches of each type are inserted into packs. While we can’t figure out all sketch types, there is a few we can determine based on odds.

Shaped Sketches – 60,000 Collector packs / 115 odds = 521 Shaped Sketches in Collector packs.
Regular Sketches – 380,000 Retail/Hobby packs / 247 odds = 1538 Regular Sketches in Retail/Hobby packs
Triptych Sketches – 60,000 Collector packs / 572 odds = 104 Triptych Sketches in Collector packs.

Sketch odds are very similar to the We Hate the 80’s set. That makes sense as production was only slightly up overall. However with production up on Collector boxes the odds are a bit harder than usual. One thing to note about the numbers. The Shaped sketch total for one is higher than it should be. I believe the odds are a little harder than stated. 58 artists were asked to each complete 6 shaped sketches, thats only 348 shaped sketches. We know some probably didn’t get completed or were rejected by Topps. But once again Topps seems to be off on the sketch odds here. Triptych odds however, appear to be close.

While production was only slightly up, this set saw huge changes in production for Topps. Oh the Horror-ible saw the removal of gravity feed boxes, which dramatically changed how many other types of retail packs were produced. Also, strong collector demand brought huge increases to Collector boxes. With only 4 months until the next retail set, We Hate the 90’s, it will be very interesting to see how production is altered. Will the same collector demand be there for We Hate the 90’s, or will Collector production drop down to previous levels? Will the continued absence of Gravity feed boxes affect how will distributors order retail? With GPK at maybe its most popular since the 30th anniversary set, will the momentum continue? It will be fascinating to see the numbers come January for We Hate the 90’s.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (60,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (380,000 Retail/Hobby packs X 7 cards per pack) = 3,020,000 Total Base Cards produced / 200 cards per set = 15,100 Total of each base card.

Of course with a larger set of 200 cards, that means there are less base sets possible with Oh the Horror-ible. Don’t delay, go get some packs of Oh the Horror-ible, buy some popcorn, and pop in a DVD of your favorite horror flick….The Garbage Pail Kids Movie!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2018S2 GPK Oh the Horrorible. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2018 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible. Part 2 will be posting soon.

Topps got off the a fast start in 2018 with the first retail set We Hate the 80’s. Collectors enjoyed the gags that harkened back to their youth when GPKs first came out in the 80’s. However, once 2018S2 Oh the Horror-ible was announced, collectors almost unanimously were excited to see what Topps could produce. The Horror genre resonates with GPK collectors perhaps more than any other. So would that love for Horror reflect on the production numbers? News on production took a hit shortly after the set was announced and Topps cancelled Gravity Feeds packs due to Target’s lack of interest in ordering. As you will see both the Horror theme and the cancellation of Gravity packs had a large impact on production this year. Lets crunch some numbers!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To start we need to determine how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Collector and Retail/Hobby packs. In the past this was easy. Historically, Topps has used the same exact odds for both the Gold borders and the Artist autographs. For the most part that stays the same this set, with one exception. For the second set in a row, Topps changed up the Fat Pack Retail pack odds. Usually they are 1/2 of all the other packs, because there is double the amount of cards. So in the past we counted Fat Packs as two packs. Now as you will see below the numbers are slightly off. The only way to possibly take a stab at this is to assume the Fat Pack odds are 1/2 a regular pack. Just keep in mind the odds are slightly easier for the Fat Pack Retail packs, making production numbers actually less than what I have stated in the article. Its not by a lot, but our numbers are off a bit.

Gold borders this time are set at 1:44 packs in Collector, Retail, and Blaster packs. The exception is Fat Pack retail packs, at 1:18, if we double those we still only get 1:36, which is slightly less that it should be. If we assume the odds were printed correctly by Topps, that will throw of our numbers just slightly. In order to come up with an estimate, we will use the 1:44 number. There are 200 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the back. Therefore, 200 X 50 number of golds per card = 10,000 total Gold borders X 44 odds = 440,000 total packs made for release. Here’s our first clue that despite cancelling Gravity feed packs, production is slightly up vs. the previous series.

Can we be sure about 440,000 packs being made? We use to be able to double check by using Artist Autographs. However, with this series, Topps made the odds much easier on autos in Collector boxes. We won’t be able to get close. We also can’t use plates for the same reason. We are going to go with the 440,000 as total number of packs. I think its the right number, and other calculations in the article show its a logical choice.

Next we need to try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for the set. Collector packs are always easier to figure out because they have the cards that are exclusive to the set. We need card types that are only in Collector packs, and we know already how many were made. Once again there are three types, Patches, Bloody Red borders, and Spit Blue borders. Here’s what the math looks like on those:

• Patch Cards – 20 cards in set X 50 made per card = 1000 total patches x 59 odds = 59,000 Collector packs made
• Bloody Red borders – 200 cards in set X 75 made per card = 15,000 total Red borders X 4 odds = 60,000 Collector packs made
• Spit Blue borders – 200 cards in set X 99 made per card = 19,800 total Blue borders X 3 odds = 59,400 Collector packs made

This is quite possibly the easiest Collector packs have been to figure out. In the past Topps had to round the odds on red and blue parallels, thus throwing off the numbers just a bit. However, based on actual box breaks it shows the odds are true to form, with an average of 8 blues and 6 reds coming from each box. I’m confident 60,000 is a good number to use for Collector pack production, (Its probably closer to the 59,000 number, but I’m going to use 60,000 to make our calculations easier. This shows that production for Collector packs is up, way up. The hardcore GPK collector came out in a big way to purchase Collector boxes. As you will see below its a 35% increase in production compared to WHT80’s.

How about other pack types? Once again Hobby boxes are nonexistent, and exist in name only. Starting with Adam-Geddon Topps has made Hobby boxes the same as Regular Retail boxes. There are no longer any marks on the packs or boxes that distinguish a Hobby box vs. a Retail display box. Also, the odds are exactly the same. Since all cards types are the same there is no way to tell how many Hobby/Retail boxes were produced. Sadly the same holds true for retail packs. In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made, we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. The only cards types that are individual to retail packs are Loaded Sketches and Panoramic Sketches. Topps no longer releases how many sketches are inserted into each pack type.

So just like with We Hate the 80’s the rest of our discussion will combine all Hobby/Retail pack types into one number. Keep in mind a Fat Pack Retail pack counts as 2 packs in our numbers.

We know there are 60,000 Collector packs. How many Retail/Hobby packs to we have? 440,000 total packs – 60,000 Collector packs = 380,000 Retail/Hobby packs. It would appear with the cancellation of Gravity Feed packs, the production of retail is slightly decreased from WHT80’s. However, one thing that is obvious from looking at the odds is Topps made up quite a bit for cancelling the Gravity feeds by increasing production on both Blaster and Fat Packs. Odds on loaded sketches are 27% tougher than the previous set, and that’s with more sketch artists. Likewise odds for pano sketches are just shy of 25% higher. Even though Gravity feeds were cancelled there isn’t a huge different in retail production.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for We Hate the 80’s:

• Total Production – 440,000 Packs
• Collector – 60,000 Collector Packs or about 2,500 Hobby Boxes or about 312 Collector Cases
• Retail/Hobby – 380,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

(Once again our numbers are slightly off due to the easier Jumbo Retail odds. So there is actually slightly less retail produced than stated.)

The numbers produce a fascinating story for Topps on the newest GPK set. The good news for Topps? Overall production appears to be up for the first time since the Trashy TV set. This is especially true with Collector pack production. Clearly the Horror theme was well received by GPK collectors, and it showed with their orders. The bad news for Topps? It appears Target is out of the gravity feed business. Is that because of declining consumer demand with GPK? Or is it because of updated store card displays? Whatever the reason, retail production is down overall, albeit not be much. Take a look any the last five sets and the production numbers:

• Total Pack Production
  • Trashy TV – 638,000
  • Adam-Geddon – 459,000
  • Battle of the Bands – 441,000
  • We Hate the 80’s – 439,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 440,000 (0.3% increase in total overall production vs. We Hate the 80’s)
• Collector Pack Production
  • Trashy TV – 35,000
  • Adam-Geddon – 36,000
  • Battle of the Bands – 41,000
  • We Hate the 80’s – 39,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 60,000 (35% increase in Collector production vs. We Hate the 80’s)
• Retail Pack Production
  • Trashy TV – 550,000
  • Adam-Geddon (Includes Hobby packs) – 423,000
  • Battle of the Bands (Includes Hobby packs) – 400,000
  • We Hate the 80’s (Includes Hobby packs) – 393,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 380,000 (3.4% decrease in Retail/Hobby production vs. We Hate the 80’s)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. While the numbers show very similar production of Oh the Hour-ible to the previous three sets, that doesn’t tell the whole story. There were some big swings this series with the cancellation of Gravity Feed packs and the huge increase in Collector pack numbers. Topps has already announced there will once again be no Gravity feed packs for the next retail set, 2019S1 We Hate the 90’s. So, will Collector box numbers stay high? Will retail demand increase due to the success of Oh the Horror-ible? A lot of interesting answers ahead next January.

I have a lot of fun trying to figure this stuff out. Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2018S2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

Its been a long 9 months since the last retail release of GPKs. 2018S1 We Hate the 80’s proved to be very popular with collectors. Collectors enjoyed the gags that harkened back to their childhood when they first collected GPKs. However, if there is one theme that GPK collectors seem to latch onto it’s horror. 2018 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible is out to get both GPK and Horror lovers. Topps is once again sticking to the same formula that has been used for the last number of sets. They slightly increased the base set to 200 cards, that is still broken down into 8 subsets. Collectors continue to be disappointed the cards lack card back artwork, sticker die-cuts, checklists, and numbering is on the back. I will have articles coming in the next few days looking at production numbers. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2018 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set – 200 total cards made up of 8 different subsets.
  • 80’s Horror Sticker (15a/b – 30 Total Cards)
  • 80’s Sci-Fi Sticker (10a/b – 20 cards)
  • Modern Horror Sticker (15a/b – 30 cards)
  • Modern Sci-Fi Sticker (5a/b – 10 cards)
  • Classic Film Monster Sticker (15a/b – 30 cards)
  • Retro Horror Sticker (15a/b – 30 cards)
  • Retro Sco-Fi Sticker (15a/b – 30 cards)
  • Folklore Monster Sticker (10a/b – 20 cards)

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
  • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:3 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Bloody Nose Border (Red) /75 – 1:4 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:44 – Retail/Hobby/Collector, 1:18 Retail Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail/Hobby (200 Cards)
  • Jelly Border (Purple) – 1:1 – Retail Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Phlegm Border (Yellow) – 1:4 – Blaster Packs (200 Cards)
  • Printing Plates – 1:1190 Collector, 1:1317 Blaster, 1:1320 Hobby/Retail, 1:525 Retail Fat Packs (400 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • Horror Film Poster Parodies – 1:24 – Collector (10 Cards)
  • Classic Monster Stickers – 2 Per Retail Fat Pack (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
  • Trick or Treats – 1:3 – Retail/Hobby (10 Cards)
  • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per Blaster Box (16-18a/b – 6 Total Cards)
  • Patch Card /50 – 1:59 – Collector (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
  • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:41 Collector, 1:103 Hobby/Retail, 1:104 Blaster, 1:42 Retail Fat Packs (100 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
  • Sketch Card – 1:248 Hobby/Retail,, 1:247 Blaster, 1:99 Retail Fat Packs (58 Artists)
  • Shaped Sketch – 1:115 – Collector (58 Artists)
  • Triptych Sketch – 1:572 – Collector (58 Artists)
  • Loaded Sketch – 1:108 – Blaster Box (58 Artists)
  • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:712 – Retail Fat Packs (58 Artists)

Happy release day! Today is the official release day for 2018 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Oh the Horror-ible. Thanks to GPK collector Nikolas Sosa we have the Collector and Hobby pack odds. There are a few things that stick out right away when looking at the odds. Production for Collector boxes appears to be up, way up. However, some of the hits, namely Plates and autos are much easier than the previous set. Expect less patches, with more autos and plates. However, when looking at patch, Triptych, and shaped sketches, there is a lot more Collector boxes out there. Hobby boxes, which are the same a Retail Display box, have very similar odds to what we’ve already shared on the retail side. This means the amount of Spit (Blue) and Bloody Nose (Red) parallels coming out of Collector boxes will be less than usual. Based on one collector’s box breaks, he pulled 8 Spit and 6 Bloddy Nose parallels, which would be true to odds. Previous years those fell at a much higher rate. On the Hobby boxes one thing to note, after telling distributors that Phlegm (yellow) parallels would appear in the Retail/Hobby Display boxes, they are not listed. Instead they only appear to be in Blaster packs. The new Trick or Treat insert appears to be a plentiful pull in 24 pack display boxes. i’ll have more in depth information on total production run in the coming days. Here are the odds for Collector and Hobby/Retail packs.

2018S2 GPK Oh the Horror-ible Collector Pack Odds

• Spit (Blue) 1:3
• Bloody Nose (Red) 1:4
• Fools Gold 1:44
• Printing Plate 1:260
• Artist Autograph 1:41
• Horror Film Poster Parodies 1:24
• Shaped Sketch 1:115
• Triptych Sketch 1:572
• Patch Card 1:59

2018S2 GPK Oh the Horror-ible Collector Pack Odds

• Fools Gold 1:44
• Printing Plate 1:1320
• Artist Autograph 1:103
• Trick or Treat 1:3
• Sketch Card 1:248

Much to the delight of GPK collectors around the country, some Target stores begin stocking retail packs of 2018 Series 2, Oh the Horror-ible today. Collectors found both retail Blasters and Fat packs in stores. Some collectors stated that Target’s system would not allow them to purchase the packs until the official release date next Wednesday, 9/19. However, GPK sketch artist Shane Garvey was able to snag some. Thanks for Shane for pictures of the the packs.

With Gravity Feed boxes being cancelled this set, it will be interesting to see the full spectrum of odds for various retail packs. Based on early analysis, parallels and regular sketches are slightly easier to pull indicating a slightly smaller print run. However the special sketches such as Loaded sketches and Panasonic sketches have much tougher odds than the previous We Hate the 80’s release. This indicates Topps bumped up the printing of Blasters and Fat Packs to make up for the cancellation of Gravity Feeds. The other news to come from early pack odds show Phlegm Yellow borders are listed on the odds for Blaster packs. Will they also appear in 24 pack retail boxes, (also marketed as Hobby boxes)?

I’ll have my usual rundown of production numbers in the coming days once all pack odds are in. Regular retail pack odds will also be added to this post when available. For now here are the odds for Fat Packs and Blasters.

2018S2 GPK Oh the Horror-ible Blaster Pack/Box Odds

• Phlegm 1:4
• Fools Gold 1:44
• Printing Plate 1:1317
• Artist Autograph 1:104
• Regular Sketch 1:247
• Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:108 (Blaster Boxes)

2018S2 GPK Oh the Horror-ible Fat Pack Retail Odds

• Fools Gold 1:18
• Printing Plate 1:525
• Artist Autograph 1:42
• Regular Sketch 1:99
• Panoramic Sketch 1:712