Tag Archives: Odds

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2019S2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

• Total Production – 748,000 Packs
• Collector – 69,000 Collector Packs or about 2,875 Hobby Boxes or about 360 Collector Cases
• Blaster – 264,000 Blaster Packs or 32,800 Blaster boxes or 1,320 Blaster Cases
• Fat Packs – 130,000 Fat Packs or 1203 Fat Pack cases
• Retail Display – 24,000 Retail Display Packs or 1000 Retail Display boxes or 125 Retail Display Cases

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figure it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Blue /99, Red /75, and Gold /50 for the parallels, and Relics /100 and Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Like with last series because we’ve figured out roughly what the individual pack production is of the various retail packs types we can try to figure out the production of the retail parallels. We can also figure out the Blacklight production.

First let’s figure out production for the various parallels.

• Blacklight – 69,000 Collector packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 69,000 total Blacklight cards / 200 cards in set = 345 per card.
• Green Borders – 264,000 Blaster packs + 130,000 Fat Packs + 24,000 Retail Display Packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 418,000 total Green borders / 200 cards in set = 2090 per card.
• Purple Borders – 130,000 Fat Packs * 2 Per pack = 260,000 total Purple borders / 200 cards in set = 1300 per card
• Yellow Borders – 24,000 Retail Display packs / 4 Odds = 6000 total Yellow borders / 200 cards in set = 30 per card

Some notes on changes to the parallels this series. Topps messed up on the Fat packs this time. In the past they came with 2 green borders and 1 purple border. This series it was swapped, 2 purples per fat pack, and only 1 green border. So despite production being way up on the set overall the Green parallel production is only slightly up vs. the last set. Conversely, the packet issue with purples in fat packs, coupled with increased production means Purple production is almost triple the previous set. Blacklight cards are up 100 more then Bruised due to production increases as well. With the yellow borders we see a different story. Because there appears to be a decrease in Retail Display boxes the yellows might be as low as only 30 of each card produced. Except this to be up sharply as yellows more to Value boxes for 2020S1.

Now let’s take a look at the various insert sets.

• Horror Film Posters – 69,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 2,875 total Horror Film Posters / 9 cards in set = 319 per card
• Classic Monsters – 130,000 Fat packs * 2 per pack = 260,000 total Classic Monsters / 20 cards in set = 13,000 per card
• Horror Victims – 52,800 Blaster Boxes * 3 per box = 158,400 total Horror Victims / 10 cards in set = 15,840 per card
• Trick or Treat – 24,000 Retail Display packs / 3 odds = 8,000 total Trick or Treat / 10 cards in set = 800 per card
• Tombstone Figures – 2,875 Collector boxes / 1 odds – 2,875  total Tombstone figures / 12 figures in set = 240 per figure

While production was way up, some of the insert set changes helped keep production runs for the inserts only slightly higher than previous sets. Set sizes for Posters, Horror Victims, and Trick or Treats kept the numbers in line with previous releases. While I know it doesn’t seem like it for some of the Tombstone figurines, there are a good number of each available. Topps choosing to pack each case with the same figures certainly doesn’t help collectors in making the set.

One thing I like taking a look at each set is where all the printing plates are hiding. Historically, retail has the majority of the printing plates because it accounts for over 80% of the print run. One other thing these numbers will tell us is how close we are to having correct retail pack production numbers. We know Topps inserted 440 plates into production. Here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

• Collector Plates – 69,000 packs / 462 odds = 149 plates in Collector packs
• Fat Pack Plates – 130,000 packs / 870 odds = 149 plates in Fat Pack packs
• Blaster Plates – 264,000 packs / 2615 odds = 100 plates in Blaster packs
• Retail Display Plates – 24,000 packs / 2653 odds = 9 plates in Retail Display packs

Once again if you want a plate Collector packs are the easiest option. Although a large amount of plates are in retail packs, you just have to open a bunch. The total we get on plates is 407. Which is not bad considering as I mentioned in the last article the packs numbers are probably slightly off on Fat packs and Retail Display packs. Still we are in the ballpark of 440. Which makes me feel good that we are close on production numbers.

Topps is seeing popularity for the GPK brand at its highest it’s been in years. A new Brand Manager has started making some long overdue changes to set and card makeup. There will be many more changes coming in the 2020S1 set. The art is better than its even been now that the final card artists have been paired down. There are more merchandise items than ever before with GPK characters on them. The trick going forward for Topps will be to try to balance popularity of the sets, while keeping collectors happy with insertion rates. A huge complaint with this series was around how tough the hits were to pull for collectors. It will be interesting to see how Topps handles that in the next retail set.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 or 7 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (69,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (679,000 Retail packs X 7 cards per pack) = 5,167,000 Total Base Cards produced / 200 cards per set = 25,835 Total of each base card.

The smaller set size, coupled with high production increases means there are over 10,000 more base sets than the last release. Take your time with this one, there will be base sets of this one around for years to come.

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Part 2 will be posting soon.

Last year’s 2018S2 Oh the Horror-ible was a very successful set for Topps. GPK fans tend to lean towards the horror genre, and that showed with a very good selling set. In fact it sold so well it caused production of 2019S1 We Hate the 90’s to increase slightly, especially with retail. What should have been expected by collectors, but still comes as a shock, the newest set 2019S2 Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible production is much higher. While that’s bad for collectors looking to pull hits from packs, its good for the brand as it shows when the art and gags are well done, it will sell. Just how high did Topps raise the production? Let’s dive into the numbers and see where things stand.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To start we need to determine how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Collector and Retail/Hobby packs. In the past this was easy. Historically, Topps has used the same exact odds for both the Gold borders and the Artist autographs. With this set, like We Hate the 90’s, there are all kinds of problems with the odds printed in the packs. First off, odds for the parallels are at least overstated by double. This has happen before on GPK packs. This is especially true with the Gold borders. Based on actual pulls coming from multiple cases, I’m confident in saying Golds are falling at twice the rate of the odds in all pack types. Going forward in this article I will be citing the parallels odds 1/2 of what’s printed on the packs. The problem we run into is the odds on Fat Pack. In the past I’ve always counted a Fat pack as 2 retail packs. The odds seemed to lean that way. However, something interesting with this release. The odds for fat packs are 1/3 of the odds on retail packs for gold borders, autos, and even printing plates. It does make sense now. With regular packs being 8 cards, Fat Packs are now 24 cards. Now of course 5 of the cards in the fat pack are inserts or parallels, but they are closer to 3 retail packs than 2. So going forward I’m going to count Fat packs as 3 retail packs in calculations. Just know that because of the number of inserts, the numbers for Fat packs will be a little higher than they really are.

Gold borders this time are set at 1:146/1:145 packs in Collector, Retail, and Blaster packs, and 1:49 in Fat packs. Since the odds are overstated by double I’m going to use 1:73 as the more realistic odds. There are 200 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the back. Therefore, 200 X 50 number of golds per card = 10,000 total Gold borders X 73 odds = 730,000 total packs made for release. Holy %$&*$ that’s a lot of cards!

How can we be sure 730,000 is the right number? It’s hard because Topps no longer has any other card types with similar odds across the packs. Instead let’s try to reverse check our number and see if it makes sense. Let’s try to figure out how many of each pack type there are. Collector packs are always easy. There are a lot of card types only found in Collector packs. Relics, Red borders, Blue borders, and shaped sketches are all things we can use. Let’s look at the math on those:

• Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 100 made per card = 1000 total patches x 69 odds = 69,000 Collector packs made
• Bloody Red borders – 200 cards in set X 75 made per card = 15,000 total Red borders X 5 odds = 75,000 Collector packs made
• Spit Blue borders – 200 cards in set X 99 made per card = 19,800 total Blue borders X 3.5 odds = 69,000 Collector packs made
• Shaped sketches – 51 artists * 12 sketches each = 612 total shaped sketches * 102 odds = 62,424 Collector packs made

Once again Collector boxes are pretty easy to figure out. Sure the blue borders show a few more packs, but quite often the odds are rounded and not exact. That could account for some of the differences. It looks like its safe to assume 69,000 Collector packs were made. This shows a sharp increase in production of Collector packs. It makes sense, collectors bought the first Horror-ible release, and this one sold even better.

How about other pack types? In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made, we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. In the past this has been near impossible. The only card types that are individual to retail packs are Loaded Sketches and Panoramic Sketches. While Topps doesn’t release the number of sketches inserted, we have a good idea. Sketch artists were asked to do 5 Loaded and 3 Panoramic sketches. We also know, based on the Topps checklist, that there were 51 sketch artists this series. In the past a multitude of factors didn’t allow me to use these numbers. Some times artists didn’t complete their sketches, or many were rejected by Topps, or Topps’ odds were just way off what makes sense. Let’s see what the numbers show.

• Loaded sketches – 51 artists * 5 sketches each = 255 total Loaded sketches * 207 odds per box = 52,785 Blaster boxes * 5 packs per box = 263,925 blaster packs
• Panoramic sketches – 51 artists * 3 sketches each = 153 total pano sketches * 852 odds = 130,356 Fat packs

A lot of things to note on these numbers. Odds for Panoramic sketches show up on Blaster packs for some reason, in addition to Fat packs. So far I’ve only seen Panoramic sketches come out of Fat packs. The change to move Panos to Blaster packs isn’t suppose to happen until the next series. I fully believe the Pano odds on the Blaster packs are a mis-print, and they aren’t in there. If they are in there, it completely throws the odds off, which is another reason I think its s mis-print. If we are going to count each Fat pack as 3 retail packs that makes those 391,068. Yozzers! Those are huge numbers for each pack type, especially when compared to previous releases. However based on actually pull rates of sketches, plates, and autos from packs the numbers make sense. I’m going to round both of those numbers. Let’s use 264,000 Blaster packs, and 391,00 adjusted Fat packs.

We know there are 69,000 Collector packs. If total packs are 730,000 – 69,000 Collector packs = 661,000 retail packs. Let’s take it even further. 661,000 retail packs – 264,000 blaster packs – 391,000 Fat packs = 6,000 Retail Display packs. Ok wait a second, that doesn’t make sense. But let’s think about Retail Display boxes. They aren’t sold in stores. The only way to get them is from online retailers or Topps.com. So far Topps.com hasn’t posted them for sale. Previous series I estimated only 43,000. Maybe they weren’t ordered in any large quantities? I’ve seen very few Retail Display boxes being busted online so far. Do I think there were only 6,000 Retail Display packs? No I don’t, I’m sure there are more. But remember my estimate of counting each Fat pack as 3 is an over estimate. With production being so high on those, that could easily account for the missing Retail Display packs. Let’s look at regular sketch cards in a different way. If the odds are correct on the Loaded and Pano sketches we can figure out how many regular sketches are in each pack type. 51 artists were asked to do 37 regular sketches each. That comes out to 1887 total regular sketches.

• Fat Packs 130,000 / 120 odds = 1083 regular sketches in Fat Packs
• Blaster Packs 264,000 / 358 odds = 737 regular sketches in Blaster Packs
• 1887 total regular sketches – 1083 sketches in Fat packs – 737 sketches in blaster packs = 67 sketches in Retail Display packs * 358 odds = 23,986 Retail Display packs

This way of doing it gives us a more realistic Retail Display number. Roughly 24,000 packs is less than previous sets, but makes more sense than 6,000 packs. If we use 24,000 for Retail packs, then we get 264,000 Blaster + 391,000 Fat + 24,000 Retail = 679,000 total retail packs. This is a little more than what we came out with above at 661,000. This is most likely because using a 3x multiplier for Fat packs is slightly too much. So which numbers should we use? For the rest of this article and the next, I’m going with 391,000 for Fat packs, and 24,000 for Retail Display packs. This also changes our total pack number to 748,000. Just know the Fat pack number is a slight over estimate. Another interesting thing to look at with regular sketches. 51 artists * 37 regular sketches each = 1887 total sketches * 358 odds across retail = 675,546 retail packs. Thats right there with the 679,000 number we came up with. I’m confident that the total pack number is very close.

What do the numbers tell us? Topps cranked the presses for this set. Heck they might still be running. I’m fairly confident we can use the total pack number of 748,000. Topps makes it really tough to get an accurate number. Life would be a lot easier if they revealed more.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for We Hate the 90’s:

• Total Production – 748,000 Packs
• Collector – 69,000 Collector Packs or about 2,875 Hobby Boxes or about 360 Collector Cases
• Blaster – 264,000 Blaster Packs or 32,800 Blaster boxes or 1,320 Blaster Cases
• Fat Packs – 130,000 Fat Packs or 1203 Fat Pack cases
• Retail Display – 24,000 Retail Display Packs or 1000 Retail Display boxes or 125 Retail Display Cases

Production is not only up, but it’s up huge. Retail partners, including the folks that stock Target, saw how well 2018S2 Oh the Horror-ible sold, and ordered accordingly. Can the market sustain that many cards? Only time will tell. We won’t know until we see any steep discounts at online merchants many months down the line. How does production stack up against recent sets?

• Total Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s – 439,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 440,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 473,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 748,000 (37% increase in production vs. We Hate the 90’s)
• Collector Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s – 39,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 60,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 50,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 69,000 (28% Increase in Collector production vs. We Hate the 90’s)
• Retail Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s (Includes Hobby packs) – 393,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 380,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 423,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 6579,000 (38% increase in Retail/Hobby production vs. We Hate the 90’s)

Since I’ve been running this website and figuring out production numbers, this is the highest produced GPK set to date. This even beats the 30th anniversary set. This is why when you are busting packs you aren’t pulling any big hits. The sketches, plates, and autos are very hard to pull. This frustrates collectors who have been more use to easier pulls the previous years. On the other side of the coin, this shows fantastic growth for the GPK brand within Topps. Just look at the number of officially licensed merchandise being launched by numerous companies. Topps has successfully got the GPK brand name out in public. That in conjunction with the Horror theme of the set, has proven to be a hit. What will be fascinating to see is how demand for this set will result in sales for 2020S1 Late to School. Demand for GPK has not been this high in years. Will the trend continue into 2020?

This practice is always a lot of fun to look at. Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

After a long eight months off, Topps is back with 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. The latest set from Topps is another sequel, this time based off the popular 2018S2 Oh the Horror-ible set. GPK collectors seem to gravitate to the horror theme, and last years set was one of the most popular modern sets. For the most part Topps is sticking to the same formula they’ve used over the years. The base set is broken down into 7 subsets, with 200 total base cards. This is back down from the previous We Hate the 90’s set. Based on the odds, production for this set seems to have increased sharply. I will have articles in the coming days looking at production numbers in more detail. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set – 200 total cards made up of 7 different subsets.
  • Retro Horror Sticker (30 cards/15 a/b)
  • 80’s Horror Sticker (30 cards/15 a/b)
  • Modern Horror Sticker (30 cards/15 a/b)
  • Slasher Film Sticker (30 cards/15 a/b)
  • Cult Horror Sticker (40 cards/20 a/b)
  • Horror Personality Sticker (30 cards/15 a/b)
  • Folklore Sticker (10 cards/5 a/b)

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
  • Black Light (Notation on back) – 1:1 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Blue Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:7 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Red Border (Red) /75 – 1:10 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:145 – Retail Display/Value, 1:146 – Collector, 1:49 Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Green Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Purple Border (Purple) – 2:1 – Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Blood Splatter Yellow Border (Yellow) – 1:8 – Retail Display (200 Cards)
  • Printing Plates – 1:462 Collector, 1:2,615 Value, 1:2,653 Retail Display, 1:870 Fat Packs (440 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • “Mo Bile” Jago Studios Insert Card – Collector/Retail Display/Value/Fat Packs (1 Card)
  • Horror Film Poster Parodies – 1:24 – Collector (9 Cards)
  • Classic Monsters Stickers – 2 Per Fat Pack (10a/b – 20 Cards)
  • Trick or Treat – 1:3 – Retail Display (10 Total Cards)
  • GPK Horror Victims – 3 Per Value Box (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • Faux Character Relics – 1:69 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
  • Tombstone Figurine – 1 Per Collector Box (12 Total Figures)
  • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:73 Collector, 1:410 Retail Display, 1:409 Value, 1:137 Fat Packs (100 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
  • Sketch Card – 1:279 Retail Display/Value, 1:120 Fat Packs (51 Artists)
  • Shaped Sketch – 1:102 – Collector (51 Artists)
  • Triptych Sketch – 1:670 – Collector (51 Artists)
  • Loaded Sketch – 1:207 – Value Box (51 Artists)
  • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:852 – Fat Packs/Value (51 Artists)

Are you a rainbow collector? Checkout this rainbow checklist, custom made for 2019S2 Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Made by Mr. GeePeeKay himself! Download it, edit it, post it for everyone to see! Get your rainbows complete!

With just one day before release day Collector boxes of 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible are starting to surface. Thanks to Mikee Friesen for pictures of the collector box and odds. Much like with Retail, the odds appear to be tougher than previous sets, and production higher. However, it might not be as bad as it seems. The odds for the red and blue parallels appear to be overstated by double as Mikee pulled 5 reds and 7 blues from his box. Yes that’s a small sample size, but overstating the odds by double has been something Topps has been doing on and off for a while now. The other unknown is what the Faux Character Relic is. I thought that might be the figures, but they have odds on the pack. So there might indeed be patches once again in the set. I’ll have much more on that and production numbers in upcoming articles. Here are the Collector pack odds.

2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-bike Collector Pack Odds

• Blood Splatter Blue 1:7
• Blood Splatter Red 1:10
• Blood Splatter Gold 1:146
• Printing Plate 1:462
• Artist Autograph 1:73
• Horror Film Poster 1:24
• Faux Character Relic 1:69
• Shaped Sketch 1:102
• Tryptych Sketch 1:670

Despite the official release date being next Wednesday, cards have started surfacing online for the brand new 2019 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Thanks to cardgarys from ebay for pictures of the odds! As usual the odds appear to be all over the place, and without a lot of real world examples are hard to explain. The past coupe of sets Topps has overstated odds by double on many parallels and some other items, so keep that in mind. However, when talking to Gary based on his early case busting results, the hits are quite scarce. When compared to We Hate the 90’s, plates, autos, and sketches are over twice as hard to pull according to the odds. According to the blaster box, Loaded sketches are now 1 in 207 boxes!!! Gary confirmed he pulled one Loaded sketch in his first 5 Value cases, which would be right on the new odds. While there is no way to confirm anything yet, production appears to be way up for this series, and hits will be much harder, at least in retail. We don’t yet know what the odds look like on Collector packs. One oddity, Panoramic sketches have odds listed on both Fat packs and Value packs. Gary had not yet pulled one from Value packs, but did from a Fat pack, so the odds on the value packs may be a mis-print.

Finally, the Jago Studios advertised Mo Bile insert card is falling randomly in all retail pack types. The card is “as pictured” in the advertisments with no number on the card. It appears to be a one off insert card. Gary said he was getting about one per retail display box. I haven’t see any pictures of the card on packs or boxes as of yet like Jago mentioned. However, the GPK The Game logo is on Jumbo packs and Value boxes.

I’ll have my usual rundown of the production numbers in the coming days once all pack odds are in. In the meantime here are the odds for Retail Display, Value and Fat packs.

2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible Retail Display Odds

• Blood Splatter Yellow 1:8
• Blood Splatter Gold 1:145
• Printing Plate 1:2,653
• Artist Autograph 1:410
• Trick or Treat 1:3
• Regular Sketch 1:358

2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible Fat Pack Retail Odds

• Blood Splatter Gold 1:49
• Printing Plate 1:870
• Artist Autograph 1:137
• Regular Sketch 1:120
• Panoramic Sketch 1:852

2019S2 GPK Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible Value Pack/Box Odds

• Blood Splatter Gold 1:145
• Printing Plate 1:2,615
• Artist Autograph 1:409
• Regular Sketch 1:358
• Panoramic Sketch 1:852
• Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:207 (Blaster Boxes)