2024 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Green Day has proven to be a polarizing release with collectors. If you love the band, you probably are enjoying this release. If your love lies more with GPKs, then you might not feel as enthusiastic. Topps hasn’t helped things with their usual missteps. One of these missteps was not releasing the odds until a week after release. It’s unknown what caused the delay, but it’s a trend Topps has been doing with multiple releases. Collectors will notice this release resembles the 40th anniversary release in many ways. Can we compared the two? Let’s find out! Here’s a look at the production of the latest GPK release.
First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think it’s dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)
No matter what you call this release, Mega Box or Hobby, the results are similar. Much like with the 40th anniversary set, the Green Day set was only offered as one box type. Boxes were available at the same locations, Topps’ website, online sellers, and some hobby stores. This makes it really easy to determine the production numbers. As an aside, I want to thank the numerous collectors who sent in their case break results as we attempted to reverse engineer the production numbers. With Topps not releasing odds until recently, GPKNews went to work, with the help of collectors, to see if the production could be determined based on case break results. While it didn’t quite get to that point, I am happy to report we were within 5k-10k on the pack production by using Black, Blue, and Green parallel results. Since we have the actual odds, let’s look at a few of the parallels to get production total.
- Black Parallel – 100 cards in set * 199 made per card = 19,900 total Black cards * 16 odds = 318,400 total packs
- Gold Parallel – 100 cards in set * 50 made per card = 5,000 total Gold cards * 64 odds = 320,000 total packs
- East Bay Blue Parallel – 8 cards in set * 99 made per card = 792 total EB Blue cards * 400 odds = 316,800 total packs
- B-Sides Green Parallel – 16 cards in set * 75 made per card = 1,200 total BS Green cards * 265 odds = 318,000 total packs
As you can see, all four numbers above are in the same ballpark. You could do this with all of the numbered parallels and the numbers would be similar. That is, with the exception of some of the Foilfractor odds. It’s obvious many of the Foilfractor odds are incorrect. I think Topps just used the same numbers for many of them in error. Topps streak of having some incorrect odds continues! We are going to use 318,000 for the total pack production. That translates to 31,800 boxes or 1,590 cases. Let take a look how that compares to the 40th Anniversary set.
- 40th Anniversary – 210,000 packs = 26,250 boxes = 2,625 cases
- Green Day – 318,000 packs = 31,800 boxes, 1,590 cases
Production is quite higher than the 40th set. Even with two additional packs per box, there are also many more boxes. Keep in mind Green Day cases have twice the number of boxes in a case compared to the 40th set. Despite production being higher, it is still much, much less than any retail other retail release.
Now that we know the pack production, we can figure out the production of all the unnumbered parallels and inserts. While the majority of cards in the set are numbered there are still many insert sets.
- Green Parallel – 318,000 packs / 1 odds sheet = 318,000 total green cards / 100 in set = 3,180 of each green parallel.
- Crumpled Parallel – 318,000 packs / 120 odds sheet = 2,650 total Crumpled cards / 100 in set = 26 of each Crumpled parallel.
- B-Sides Insert – 318,000 packs / 2 odds = 159,000 total BS cards / 16 in set = 9,937 of each B-Sides card.
- East Bay/Sweet Children Insert – 318,000 packs / 5 odds = 63,600 total EB/SC / 8 in set = 7,950 of each EB/SC card.
- Battle of the Bands Insert – 318,000 packs / 10 odds = 31,800 total BB / 6 in set = 5,300 of each BB card.
- Album Art Insert – 318,000 packs / 10 odds = 31,800 total AA / 14 in set = 2,271 of each AA card.
- Dookie Insert – 318,000 packs / 20 odds = 15,900 total Dookie / 8 in set = 1,987 of each Dookie card.
- American Idiot SP Insert – 318,000 packs / 200 odds = 1,590 total AI / 6 in set = 265 of each AI card.
- Standing Room Insert – 318,000 packs / 601 odds = 529 total SR / 7 in set = 75 of each SR card.
There are a few things that stand out right away, especially compared to the 40th set. The majority of the inserts have a much higher print run. The smaller set size, coupled with increased production, means collectors will have a much easier time putting together most of the insert sets. Of course there still are a couple of really tough insert sets, but overall much higher numbers than the 40th. You also will notice the higher production has let to an increase in the popular Crumpled parallel. Topps kept the odds of those the same from the 40th, which means more of each for the Green Day set.
Unlike the 40th set, which guaranteed a hit per box, the hits are few and far between for the Green Day set. Topps did leave some of them unnumbered, let’s take a look at how rare they are.
- Autographs – 318,000 packs / 2,668 odds = 119 total Autographs cards / 3 cards in set = 39 of each Autographs card
- Tour Relics – 318,000 packs / 1,010 odds = 314 total Tour Relic cards / 4 cards in set = 78 of each Tour Relic card
- Auto Tour Relics – 318,000 packs / 7,240 odds = 43 total Auto TD cards / 6 cards in set = 7 of each Auto TR card.
This is one of the big reasons for disappointment from GPK collectors for this release. With no sketches, printing plates, or artist autos, the hits are very tough.
The Green Day release has multiple facets and is drawing either rave reviews or extreme hate. Depending on what side of the political spectrum a collector falls on, largely decides their acceptance of the set. Topps lack of hits, higher production than the 40th, and high per box price point has also garnered a very lukewarm response from GPK collectors. Meanwhile, fans of the band, and other card brand collectors have been giving this set high praise. They enjoy chasing the tough to find autos and relics, and appreciate being able to collect cards of one of their favorite artists. That was the original intention of this set, to be sold to concert goers at Green Day concerts. The big question here is, does Topps continue to work with other musical acts? And if they do, does the structure of the set change to be more GPK collector friendly?
Finally, let’s take a look at just how many base cards are out there. The lack of short printed B cards, and increased packs per box, means more base cards, and an easier to put together base set. Based on real world case breaks, boxes were averaging 26 base cards per box. So, 31,800 boxes * 26 base per box = 826,800 total base cards / 100 in set = 8,268 per base card. Not nearly as many as the retail sets of old, but quite a bit easier than the 40th set.
