Tag Archives: Odds

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2021S1 GPK Food Fight. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2021S1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

• Total Production – 1,790,000 Packs
• Collector –225,000 Collector Packs or about 9,375 Collector Boxes or about 1,171 Collector Cases
• Total Retail – 1,564,000 Packs
• Retail Display – 356,000 Retail Display Packs or about 14,833 RD Boxes or about 1,854 RD Cases

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figure it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Blue /99, Red /75, and Gold /50 for the parallels, and Relics /199 and Autos /80. There were a few changes in this set, compared to the 35th set. Auto print runs are significantly higher, Golds moved back to /50, while Patches are slightly less.

First let’s figure out production for a couple parallels.

• Black Borders – 225,000 Collector packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 225,000 total Black borders / 200 cards in set = 1,125 per card.
• Green Borders – 1,564,000 Retail packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 1,564,000 total Green borders / 200 cards in set = 7,840 per card.

A lot to discuss with the the parallels. First off, because we are unable to break out Blaster and Fat Pack production numbers, we are unable to figure out Yellow and Purple print runs for this set. It’s safe to assume the print runs are approximately the same percent higher than their 35th counterparts as the packs are. Likewise, the Green numbers above aren’t as accurate as I would like, because we don’t have Fat Pack production. Again, Fat Packs are being counted as 3 packs, but each fat pack comes with only 2 green parallels. The actual number is slightly less, but you get the idea, there are a ton of each green border out there. Black parallels are also much higher due to the increased Collector print run.

Now let’s take a look at the various insert sets.

• GPK Wacky Package – 225,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 9,375 total GPK Wacky Package / 10 cards in set = 937 per card
• Magnet Cards – 225,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 9,375 total Magnets / 12 cards in set = 781 per card
• You Are What You Eat – 356,000 Retail Display Packs / 3 odds = 118,666 total YAWYE / 10 cards in set = 11,866 per card
• Large Fridge Tins – 9,375 Collector Cases = 9,375 Large Fridge Tins

The first insert we should talk about are the GPK Wacky Packages. According to the odds above, there should be well over 900 of each card. However, based on the breaks that have been observed, the GPK Wacky’s are only falling in approx 15% of Collector boxes. If this holds true,  and the remaining Wackys never surface, it’s reasonable to think there are only 140-150 of each GPK Wacky actually out there. Also, like with the parallels above, because we are unable to break out the production numbers for Blasters and Fat Packs, we are unable to determine how many Cereal Aisle and Celebrity Chef inserts were made.

The numbers we are able to figure out all tell the same story, parallels and inserts are up considerably because production is up. Another interesting thing to look at is the distribution of the “hits” in the various pack types. Just by looking at the retail odds, it’s clear the odds for “hits” are higher than they have ever been, much higher than any other set. Why is this? Topps increased production on Collector boxes, and each box is guaranteed a hit. With Parches actually being less this set, and only a few more sketches, Topps has to move a large percent of autos and plates to Collector boxes. Not only were they moved, but auto print run had to be raised to /80 to accommodate the hits. Collectors will notice the majority of hits from a Collector case will be autos. Just how many plates and autos are in Collector vs. Retail packs?

• Collector packs 225,000 / 40 auto odds = 5,625 autos in Collector packs
• 200 base cards * 80 autos per card = 16,000 total autos – 5,625 autos in Collector = 10,375 autos in retail
• Collector packs 225,000 / 796 Plate odds = 282 plates in collector packs
• 400 total plates – 282 in collector packs = 118 in retail packs

There are about 35% of the autos and a whopping 70% of printing plates in Collector Packs. That’s a lot when you consider Collector packs only make up 12% of the total production run. So if you are wondering why the odds are so long in retail packs, you can blame Collector Boxes for the results.

The bottom line is once again, Garbage Pail Kids are seeing huge production increases into 2021. GPKs are not immune to the huge increases in demand for card collectibles since the Covid-19 pandemic started. Not only has there been an increase of new collectors, but the large influx of sport card sellers looking to capitalize on the current GPK demand is causing numbers to sights unseen in decades. The question now is how high can the demand go? Will we see continued increases with sets later in 2021?

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 or 7 base cards per pack, except for packs containing a patch card. Retail packs also have 6 or 7 base cards per pack. We will go with 7 for each pack. While we can’t break out Fat Packs this series, the less base cards even themselves with Collector and Retail packs that have 6 cards.

Base Cards – 1,790,000 total packs produced * 7 per pack = 12,530,000 Total Base Cards produced / 200 cards per set = 62,650 Total of each base card.

Over 12 million base cards printed!! We’ve hit 8 digits! Once again, by far the highest produced set since Topps has been supplying odds for packs. While I have no way of knowing for sure, I suspect these numbers are only surpassed by OS print numbers. How high can they go?

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2021S1 GPK Food Fight. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. Part 2 will be posting soon.

The last four months have been a whirlwind for Garbage Pail Kids collectors. Popularity of card collectibles, including GPKs, have been at sights unseen in years. Four months ago the 35th anniversary set became the highest produced GPK set in 10 years. Six weeks later the return of Chrome OS 3 blew through those records. There was some doubt if a themed, non anniversary, non chrome set could see similar interest. Collectors can put that doubt aside, as 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight has once again broken all recent production records. Production is not only up, but up significantly over the 35th anniversary set. How high was the production? Read on to find out!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To begin we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. We need to use a card type that has the same odds across all various pack types and where we know the number made. Once again this is true of the Gold parallels. First, a couple of notes.  As a Topps tradition, they have once again overstated the parallels by double. Every release like clockwork. How do we know? Greens and Purples are listed in packs as 1:2, but are 1 per pack. Yellows listed 1:10, but actually fall 1:5. This is seen over and over with all parallel types. The other thing that has remained consistent on the odds is Fat Pack odds are once again 1/3 of a regular pack. We will count a Fat Pack as 3 retail packs to determine production. Keep that in mind as we are taking about the calculations.

Gold parallels are listed at 1:358 in Collector, Retail, and Blaster packs. Fat Packs are 1:120. Since the odds are overstated by double, I’ll be using 1:179 as the actual gold odds. There are 200 base cards in the set. This release the Golds are /50 on the back. Therefore, 200 * 50 number of golds per card = 10,000 total gold parallels * 179 odds = 1,790,000 total packs made for this release. OMG! This blows away the 35th Anniversary set, blows away Chrome OS 3. It’s nearly 300% over the set release just 1 year ago, Late to School! It’s hard to wrap your head around the production increases seen in GPKs in just one year’s time.

Now that we know total pack production, let’s try to break it down by pack type. Collector packs are easy to figure out because they have a couple of different numbered parallels or inserts exclusive to the pack. Let’s look at red parallels and patches.

• Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 199 made per card = 1,900 total patches x 112 odds = 222,880 Collector packs made
• Saucy Red borders – 200 cards in set X 75 made per card = 15,000 total Red borders X 15 odds = 225,000 Collector packs made

Both of these numbers are very close, and gives us a great idea how many Collector boxes were made. I’m going to use 225,000 as the pack number for Collector packs. Right here we can see where part of the significant production increases start. Almost 100,000 more collector packs than the 35th set, and again an almost 300% increase over Late to School. Why the huge increase? I don’t think it’s solely due to content. Topps didn’t advertise the set much prior to release. Since the release of Chrome OS 3, and the online on GPK Sapphire, the hobby has seen a large increase of collectors from outside brands such as sports cards. Many saw profits possible on the secondary market and jumped in on the next retail GPK release.

How about the other pack types? We need a card type from each pack type that is exclusive to that pack to break out the numbers. Once again for the second set in a row, Topps put the Blue parallels in Retail Display boxes. We already know Blue parallels are /99.

• Spit Blue borders – 200 cards in set X 99 made per card = 19,800 total Blue borders X 18 odds = 356,400 Retail Display packs made

Again we can see more increases, and while not as high of a percent increase as Collector packs, still significant. Now how about Blaster and Fat Packs. Unfortunately, this is where we run into our first problem. Usually, we can use the odds for Loaded Puzzle and Panoramic sketches to figure out the production of Blaster packs. For an unknown reason, Topps did not include the odds for the Loaded Sketches on the Blaster Fridge Tins. GPKNews has reached out to Topps to try to get the odds, however with the recent change in Brand Managers information is hard to get. We are left with Panoramic sketch odds. The odds listed for Pano sketches are clearly incorrect on the packs. We know there were 60 artists complete sketches, each artist as asked to do 4 pano sketches. There should be 240 total pano sketches. If you multiple that by the odds 1:9897, you get over 2.3 million packs. This number is so out of whack when compared to the other numbers, I can’t begin to envision how Topps came up with it. Even if the odds were doubled on sketches, it would still be too many packs to make sense. I don’t know how to explain the pano odds, other than to say I’ve seen on previous releases the odds for one of the sketch types will be wildly incorrect. It’s unexplainable and Topps is not in the practice of explaining their methodology to others. So where does that leave us? Well, unable to break out the Blaster and Fat Pack numbers from the total Retail Pack production. That will also make it unable to figure out how many of the inserts and parallels exclusive to those packs were produced.

So what do we know? We know  there are a total of 225,000 Collector packs. Total packs are 1,790,000 – 225,000 Collector packs = 1,565,000 total retail packs. Then 1,564,000 retail packs – 356,000 Retail Display packs = 1,209,000 Blaster & Fat Packs. Again we can’t go further with more information. Also keep in mind the Fat Pack number would be 1/3, since we are counting each Fat Pack pack as 3 packs. I do think it makes sense to assume that once again Blaster packs out number Fat Packs 2:1 like the previous release.

What do the numbers tell us? That Garbage Paul Kids have exploded in popularity over the last year. It’s shocking to see how much is being produced and purchased by old and new collectors alike.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Food Fight:

• Total Production – 1,790,000 Packs
• Collector – 225,000 Collector Packs or about 9,375 Collector Boxes or about 1.171 Collector Cases
• Retail Display – 356,000 Retail Display Packs or about 14,833 RD Boxes or about 1,854 RD Cases
• Blaster – Unable to determine
• Fat Packs – Unable to determine

I know this sounds like a broken record, but production is up, way up. This is the third straight retail release by Topps that has seen record numbers. Numbers are so much higher than anything released from 2016-2020S1. Take a look at how production compares to recent sets.

• Total Pack Production
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 748,000
  • Late to School – 670,000
  • 35th Anniversary – 1,113,000
  • Food Fight – 1,790,000 (61% increase in production vs. 35th)
• Collector Pack Production
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 69,000
  • Late to School – 74,000
  • 35th Anniversary – 130,000
  • Food Fight – 225,000 (73% increase in production vs. 35th)
• Retail Pack Production
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 679,000
  • Late to School – 596,000
  • 35th Anniversary – 983,000
  • Food Fight – 1,565,000 (59% increase in production vs. 35th)

After figuring out the numbers on sets for the last five plus years, I continue to be amazed almost every release. Collectors will find longer odds than ever for “hits”. Odds are so long in retail products it will take multiple cases to just see a single hit in some cases. Topps however, has to be thrilled with the demand. Demand for GPK, a Topps owned brand, is a license to print money for Topps. How will this play out the rest of 2021? There are a lot of licensed products set throughout the year. There will certainly be a number of online offerings. Collectors will have to wait until late fall for 2021S2 and more Chrome. There will be another four month window at the end of 2021-2022 where collectors will have the chance at multiple retail releases. Will we continue to see huge production increases?

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

The last four months Topps has loaded the calendar with GPK releases. 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight marks the end to a mad dash for collectors who are trying to keep up with everything. Topps followed a similar formula as they did with recent sets like the 35th Anniversary release. The same final card artists; Joe Simko, David Gross, Brent Engstrom, and Joe McWilliams return to complete all the artwork on the 200 card, 100 a/b, set. This is the last set that was overseen by Brand Manager Jessica Kanzer, who left Topps prior to the set’s release. One thing that never changes is Topps being unable to grasp basic math. Parallel odds are again overstated by double. Also once again, production is very high for this set, it rivals or even surpasses the production of the 35th set. I’ll have articles in the coming days going over production, but it’s clear GPK is hotter than its been in a long, long time.

There are a few minor changes to the set. Insert set sizes are slightly different than previous sets, with Celebrity Chefs, 16 cards and Cereal Aisle, 24 cards. Topps also changed some of the print runs on the inserts. Artist Autographs jumped way up to /80 of each. It appears the change was made to satisfy the additional production. Patch Relics are actually lower this release at /199, while Gold parallels move back to /50. One major issue being seen in early breaks is the lack of GPK Wacky Package inserts in Collector boxes. Those have historically been 1 per box, and the odds this year show that same thing. However, early breaks show only about 15%-20% of boxes actually contain the cards. Another issue is Topps forgot to list odds for Loaded Puzzle Sketches on the Blaster boxes. Finally, Topps, for the first time, inserted a redemption card for a digital pack of GPKs on the WAX Blockchain. The artwork on the card was done by artist Nik Castaneda. This is the first time WAX NFTs are tied to a physical product and being sold in major retailers. This is groundbreaking in the NFT industry, as digital assets become more and more popular.

I will have articles in the coming days looking at production numbers in more detail. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set – 100a/b (200 Cards).

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border. (Note: Odds on parallels are overstated by double.)
  • Pepper Black Border (Black)) – 1:2 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Spit In Your Food Blue Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:36 – Retail Display (200 Cards)
  • Saucy Red Border (Red) /75 – 1:30 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:358 – Retail Display/Value, 1:358 – Collector, 1:120 Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Booger Green Border (Green) – 1:2 – Retail (200 Cards)
  • Jelly Purple Border (Purple) – 1:2 – Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Mustard Yellow Border (Yellow) – 1:10 – Value Box Packs (200 Cards)
  • Printing Plates – 1:796 Collector, 1:13,196 Value, 1:13,049 Retail Display, 1:4,399 Fat Packs (400 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • GPK Wacky Packages – 1:24 – Collector (10 cards)
  • Refrigerator Magnet Card – 1:24 – Collector (12a/b – 24 Cards)
  • Cereal Aisle – 2 Per Fat Pack (12a/b – 24 Cards)
  • You Are What You Eat – 1:3 – Retail Display (5a/b – 10 Cards))
  • Celebrity Chefs – 3 Per Value Box (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • GPK Wacky Packages Patches /199 – 1:112 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
  • Adam Appetite Digital Redemption  – 1 per box Collector, Blaster, Retail Display, 1:4 Fat Packs (1 Card)
  • Collectible Blue Refrigerator Tin – 1 Per Collector Box (1 Tin)
  • Collectible Refrigerator Tin – 1 Per Blaster Box (4 Tins)
  • Artist Autograph /80 – 1:40 Collector, 1:646 Retail Display, 1:646 Value, 1:215 Fat Packs (100 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
  • Sketch Card – 1:410 Retail Display/Value, 1:137 Fat Packs (60 Artists)
  • Shaped Sketch – 1:182 – Collector (60 Artists)
  • Triptych Sketch – 1:1,201 – Collector (60 Artists)
  • Loaded Sketch – 1:Unknown – Value Box (60 Artists)
  • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:9,897 – Value (60 Artists)

2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight doesn’t officially release until 2/24, but that hasn’t stopped some stores from putting them out early. Thanks to collector gpkkilla for sending along the odds for the refrigerator tins he found at Walmart. Thanks for collector Jake Schaaf for sending the odd along for the Retail Display packs. Once again, in keeping with Topps “math”, the odds are overstated by double on the packs. Just like the 35th series, inexplicably, the odds for the green parallels are listed as 1:2 in packs, when each pack comes with 1 green. Yellows are also overstated by double as this collector pulled 2 in his tins. I imagine the odds will be double on all parallels, but we will need more breaks to confirm. Production appears to be very high, and near or even exceeding the 35th anniversary. Odds for plates and panoramic sketches are very long. Gold odds are actually harder than the 35th. One big disappointment is the odds for Loaded Sketches do not appear on the box like they usually do. GPKNews will reach out to Topps for confirmation the Loaded Sketches were inserted. Finally, the 1 per box redemption for a pack of digital GPKs on the WAX Blockchain features the artwork of Nik Castaneda, who did the art for the digital cards. As of press time the website to redeem the digital cards has not been activated by Topps. Odds for Fat Packs  will be added to this article once we get them.

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Value (Blaster) Pack/Box Odds

• Booger Green 1:2
• Mustard Yellow 1:10
• Fool’s Gold 1:358
• Printing Plate 1:13,196
• Artist Autograph 1:646
• Sketch Card 1:410
• Panoramic Sketch 1:9,897
• Loaded Sketch Not Listed (Boxes)

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Retail Display Odds

• Green 1:2
• Spit In Your Food Blue 1:36
• Fool’s Gold 1:358
• Printing Plate 1:13,049
• Artist Autograph 1:646
• You Are What You Eat 1:3
• Regular Sketch 1:410

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Fat Pack Retail Odds

• Jelly Purple 1:2
• Fool’s Gold 1:120
• Printing Plate 1:4,399
• Artist Autograph 1:215
• Regular Sketch 1:137