Tag Archives: Odds

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2016 GPK Prime Slime Trashy TV. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids Prime Slime Trashy TV. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

• Total Production – 638,000 Packs
• Hobby – 52,000 Hobby Packs or 2167 Hobby boxes or 270 Hobby Cases
• Collector – 35,000 Collector Packs or 1458 Hobby Boxes or 182 Collector Cases
• Retail – 550,000 Retail Packs

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions  and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figured it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like with the Apple Pie set, Topps decided to number many of the inserts and parallels. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Spit /99, Bloody /75, and Fool’s Gold /50 for the parallels, and Relics /50, Patches /99, Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Still there are some things we just can’t determine. As mentioned previously, Topps has made it more difficult on us this time around. The sell sheets no longer reveal the number of each type of sketch inserted into each pack type. This means we can not figure out each different retail pack type. Therefore, there are many retail items that we are unable to determine the production on. For example, the Yellow Pee borders. Since there is no way to break out the number of gravity feed packs from the other retail packs, we can not determine how many Pee borders were made. This also true for the various retail bonus sets; Classic Re-runs, Gross Bears, Bathroom Buddies, and Adam Bomb Your TV. However with production up in retail 26% over Apple you can be assured there are many more of all of these compared to the Apple Pie release. The lack of retail breakdown also means we can not determine how many Loaded Sketches or Panoramic Sketches were inserted into packs.

Let’s discuss what we can figure out.

While we can’t figure out the Yellow Pee parallel, we can determine how many of the other two non-numbered parallels were made. We can also find out how many of the Wacky bonus inserts were made.

• Bruised Borders – 35,000 Collector packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 35,000 total Bruised borders / 220 cards in set = 159 per card.
• Puke Borders – 550,000 Retail packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 550,000 total Puke borders / 220 cards in set = 2,500 per card.
• Wacky Packages – 35,000 Collector packs + 52,000 Hobby packs = 87,000 total packs / 24 Odds = 3625 total cards / 8 in set = 453 of each card made.

Compared to the Apple Pie set, Puke borders and Wacky’s have increased quite a bit due to production increases. Bruised borders is actually down just slightly.

One thing I always find interesting is where are all the plates hiding? Retail always had the majority of the plates because over 80% of the production is retail. We can also use plates to check our pack numbers to see if we are close. We know Topps inserted 440 plates into the production, so here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

Collector Plates – 35,000 packs / 288 odds = 122 plates in Collector packs
Hobby Plates – 52,000 / 1792 odds = 29 plates in Hobby packs
Retail Plates – 550,000 / 1849 odds = 297 plates in Retail packs

The math looks close, that comes out to 448 total plates. There are only 180 or so Collector cases, so looking at the odds 2/3 of the cases will produce a plate. Hobby boxes continue to get the shaft. Topps has deemphasized the Hobby box the last few releases. The odds are just as long as retail, and there isn’t much extra content. Based on sell sheets for the next release, Adam-Geddon, Hobby boxes will make the complete transformation and will match Retail packs. We can also tell how many artist autos are in each pack type.

• 35,000 Collector packs / 96 Odds = 365 autos in Collector packs
• 52,000 Hobby packs / 245 Odds = 212 autos in Hobby packs
• 2750 total autos – 365 Collector autos – 212 Hobby autos = 2173 autos in Retail packs

While Topps for the first time didn’t reveal sketch numbers on the sell sheet, we can figure out the number of Shaped and Regular sketches inserted into pack based on the odds.

• Shaped Sketches
• Collector – 35,000 Collector packs / 144 odds = 243 Shaped Sketches in Collectors packs
• Hobby – 52,000 Hobby packs / 165 odds = 315 Shaped Sketches in Hobby packs
• Dial Panos – 35,000 Collector packs / 352 odds = 100 Dual Artist Panoramic Sketches in Collector packs

Digging into the numbers for Prime Slime Trashy TV tells a familiar story. Topps has gone with the same set design now for three releases. So, the numbers look very similar to both the Apple Pie and 30th Anniversary sets. While Topps is stickling with the same set make-up for the next set, Adam-Geddon, they are drastically changing cards per pack and price point. It will be interesting to see how those changes affect production the next go around.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 4 base cards per pack, except for patch and relic packs, but that number is so small we will go with 4. Hobby packs have 9 or 10 base cards per pack this time around. When you account for inserts and parallels, I think we can use 9.5 base cards per Hobby pack. Retail packs have 9 cards per pack, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 9 per pack.

Base Cards – (35,000 Collector packs X 4 cards per pack) + (52,000 Hobby packs X 9.5 cards per pack) + (550,000 Retail packs X 9 cards per pack) = 5,584,000 Total Base Cards produced / 220 cards per set = 25,382 Total of each base card.

These are going to be around for a while!!!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2016 GPK Prime Slime Trashy TV. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids Prime Slime Trashy TV. Part 2 can be found here.

After a very successful 30th Anniversary Garbage Pail Kids set to close out 2015, Topps dialed back production on the first set of 2016 Apple Pie. However, following the Apple Pie release, Topps has used the Garbage Pail Kids brand in many different ways. Exclusive online only sets have been popular with collectors. While Topps was also said to be very happy with the sell through on the Apple Pie set. Would the online expansion of the GPK brand lead to higher production in the final set of 2016? That’s what I’m going to try to answer in this article and another one to follow. Topps has made it easy on us by keeping the set almost identical to the Apple Pie release, and continue to number many of the parallels and inserts. There is still a lot to attempt to figure out, and its not going to be easy as Topps has started to limit the amount of information available on the sell sheet. But, let’s give it a shot anyway!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to hear about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

First we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need to use a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Hobby, Collector, and Retail packs. Once again there is only one card type that fits that description in this set, the Fool’s Gold borders, at 1:58. Here is what we know, there are 220 cards in the set. Fool’s Gold cards are numbered on the back to /50. Therefore, 220 cards X 50 number of golds per card = 11,000 total Fool’s Gold cards X 58 odds = 638,000 total packs made for the release. This is our first stop along the way where things could go wrong. There is only one card type shared across all pack types, so we don’t have a way to double check the numbers. Topps could have always held more Gold borders back, or the odds could be wrong. We have to use what we have available to us. I believe this is a good starting point, and gets us on the path to more information.

Now let’s try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for this release. Collector packs are always the easiest to figure out because they always contain cards that are exclusively made for the set. This time there are two types of inserts and one parallel that are exclusive to Collector boxes, and are numbered on the back.

• Artist Relics – 4 cards in set X 50 made per card = 200 total relics X 175 odds = 35,000 Collector packs made
• Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 99 made per card = 990 total patches X 35 odds = 34,650 Collector packs made
• Bloody Red Border – 220 cards in set X 75 made per card = 16,500 total Bloody borders X 2 odds = 33,000 Collector packs made

The numbers come out pretty close across the board. Why don’t they match? Well, that’s a Topps mystery. Like I mentioned above the odds never work out exact. On the bloody borders, I’m willing to bet the odds aren’t exact, but rather some rounding on Topps part. I think this gives us a good number of Collector packs. I’m going to go with the 35,000 number for our purposes throughout the rest of the discussion.

Now lets move onto Hobby packs. This is where things get sticky, and Topps is really making it hard on us this time around. In order to figure out Hobby packs we need a card type that is shared by both Hobby and Collector packs, and we need to know how many of that card exists. Before, we could use shaped sketch cards to figure this out. However, Topps has changed the way sell sheets are done. They no longer reveal number of sketches inserted into packs. This causes some problems, and now prevents us from figuring out some numbers. The only thing we can use is the Spit borders. We know there are /99 of each. Since we know how many Collector packs there are, we should be able to figure out the number of hobby packs.

• Spit Borders 220 cards in set X 99 made per card = 21,780 total spit borders X 4 odds = 87,120 total Hobby/Collector packs
• 87,120 total Hobby/Collector packs – 35,000 Collector packs = 52,120 total Hobby packs

Let’s round down to 52,000 for Hobby packs. I have a couple of problems with this number. First off, I am confident of the 87,120 number for total Hobby/Collector packs being correct. However, 52,000 Hobby packs? That seems like a lot to me. That is a lot of hobby packs, especially compared to the Apple Pie release. How can that high of a number be explained? One theory I have could have to do with pre-order price. Before orders were due from distributors, the large online sellers; Blowout Cards, Steel City, DA Cards, etc. all had Collector boxes/cases for sale at very high prices. Higher than any previous set. The price didn’t make sense as the wholesale price from Topps didn’t increase set over set. It wasn’t until closer to release did the online retailers lower their prices back to “normal” levels for Collector products. Hobby boxes/cases however were selling for the usual amount. I’m starting to think collectors who usually order from online dealers put their money into Hobby rather than pay a premium for Collector boxes this time around. Another thing that could slightly be throwing the Hobby number off is actual pull rates of Spit and Bloody parallels. Some collectors have reported varying levels of pull rates not equal to the odds on Bloody parallels. Could this mean there are a few more Collector packs, and therefore less Hobby packs? Maybe, but then we have the Relic and Patch numbers that say otherwise.

Once again, its always a guessing game with Topps. We can only go by the information we have. So for our discussion going forward we will use 35,000 Collector packs, and 52,000 Hobby packs. Now let’s focus on retail. We determined above that there were 638,000 total packs produced. We could simply go 638,000 – 35,000 Collector packs – 52,000 Hobby packs = 550,880 retail packs. We can check our math by using another card type that is in both Hobby/Collector and Retail packs, the Artist Autographs. How many autos are in the set? 110 cards (1 per artwork) X 25 autos per card = 2750 total autos. Let’s look at the odds and see how that breaks down per pack type.

• 35,000 Collector packs / 96 Odds = 365 autos in Collector packs
• 52,000 Hobby packs / 245 Odds = 212 autos in Hobby packs
• 2750 total autos – 365 Collector autos – 212 Hobby autos = 2173 autos in Retail packs
• 2173 Retail autos X 245 odds = 532,385 Total retail packs.

532,385 and 550,880 are pretty close considering the large number of packs. This is one of the reasons why I’m confident we are on the right track with the production numbers for the set. I’m going to go with 550,000 total Retail packs as the number we use going forward.

With the Apple pie set I was able to go even further and figure out how many Jumbo Retail, and Blaster boxes were created. However, like I mentioned above, because Topps no longer reveals how many sketches of each type are inserted, I have no way of breaking down the information further. Sure I could try to figure out how many Loaded and Panoramic sketches there are. There were 34 sketch artists, but did all artists really submit 9 Loaded sketches? And were they all approved by Topps, and inserted into the product? Only Topps knows that information, and they aren’t talking.

So we end up with 550,000 total retail packs. This includes Jumbo retail, Gravity feeds, Blaster boxes, Blister packs, and regular retail boxes. You will want to note that Jumbo Retail packs count as 2 regular packs on the odds for Topps. So you will want to take that into account.

Here’s the bottom line. I’m pretty confident that these numbers are close. Here is what I believe to be the production for each type of pack:

• Total Production – 638,000 Packs
• Hobby – 52,000 Hobby Packs or 2167 Hobby boxes or 270 Hobby Cases
• Collector – 35,000 Collector Packs or 1458 Hobby Boxes or 182 Collector Cases
• Retail – 550,000 Retail Packs

(Once again my numbers could be off. We had to make some assumptions and trust the sell sheets and odds. But I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? What stands out to me right away is production is up, BIG, compared to the Apple Pie release. In fact the production numbers look very similar to the 30th Anniversary set from 2015. Take a look at the last three sets and the production numbers:

• Total Pack Production
  • 30th – 669,000
  • Apple Pie – 484,000
  • Trashy TV – 638,000 (25% increase in production over Apple Pie)
• Hobby Pack Production
  • 30th – 51,000
  • Apple Pie – 39,000
  • Trashy TV – 52,000 (25% increase in production over Apple Pie)
• Collector Pack Production
  • 30th – 41,000
  • Apple Pie 36,500
  • Trashy TV – 35,000 (5% decrease in production over Apple Pie)
• Retail Pack Production
  • 30th – 577,000
  • Apple Pie – 408,500
  • Trashy TV – 550,000 (26% increase in production over Apple Pie)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. It would appear Excell really increased retail orders for this set, and customers bought a lot more hobby boxes than before. As the odds point out all inserts will be a lot harder to find when busting packs. The one thing Topps did increase was the number of sketch artists and number of sketches inserted. However, because of the large production increase sketches are also slight tougher to pull.

All fun stuff to think about as you bust into those new packs! Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids Prime Slime Trashy TV. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 can be found here.

After a 9 month break Garbage Pail Kids are back with 2016 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Prime Slime Trashy TV set. While the theme is completely different this time around, the construction of the set is almost identical to the 2016 Series 1 GPK American as Apple Pie set. The themed base set continues with a 220 card base set made up of subsets. However, for the first time the entire base set is based on TV shows, there are no “regular” kids this time around. The base cards continue to lack card back artwork, sticker die-cuts, and numbering is on the back. Once again there are no checklist cards for the base set. Production for this set is up a lot on the Retail side, while Hobby/Collector packs remain similar. I will have the usual articles taking a stab at production numbers in a few days. Click here for the official checklist Topps released. Here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2016 GPK Trashy TV.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set – 220 total cards made up of 16 different subsets.
  • Comic Book TV Series (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • Horror TV Series (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • Crime TV Series (6a/b – 12 Total Cards)
  • Reboot TV Series (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • Cartoon TV Series (7a/b – 14 Total Cards)
  • Streaming TV Series (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • Reality TV Series (12a/b – 24 Total Cards)
  • Food TV Series (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • Syndicated TV Series (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
  • News Show (6a/b – 12 Total Cards)
  • Comedy TV Series (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • Game Show (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • Drama TV Series (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • Late Night TV Show (4a/b – 8 Total Cards)
  • Sci-Fi TV Series (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
  • Daytime Talk Show (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
  • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (220 Cards)
  • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:4 – Hobby/Collector (220 Cards)
  • Bloody Nose Border (Red/Pink) /75 – 1:2 – Collector (220 Cards)
  • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:58 – Retail/Hobby/Collector (220 Cards)
  • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail (220 Cards)
  • Pee Border (Yellow) – 1:4 – Target Retail Gravity Feed (220 Cards)
  • Printing Plates – 1:288 Collector, 1:1792 Hobby, 1:1849 Retail, 1:996 Retail Jumbo (440 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • GPK Wacky Packages – 1:24 – Hobby/Collector (8 Total Cards)
  • Classic Rerun – 2 Per Jumbo Retail (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
  • Gross Bears – 3 Per SE Blaster Box (6-10,L2 – 6 Total Cards)
  • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per EA Blaster Box (4-6a/b – 6 Total Cards)
  • Adam Bomb/Boom Your TV – 2 Per Blister Pack (2a/b – 4 Total cards)
  • Patch Card /99 – 1:35 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
  • Artist Relics /50 – 1:175 – Collector (4 Total Cards)
  • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:96 Collector, 1:245 Hobby/Retail (110 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
  • Sketch Card – 1:379 – Retail (34 Artists)
  • Shaped Sketch – 1:165 Hobby 1:144 – Collector (34 Artists)
  • Double Artist Panoramic Sketch – 1:352 – Collector (34 Artists)
  • Loaded Sketch – 1:75 – Blaster Box (34 Artists)
  • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:991 – Jumbo Retail (34 Artists)

Thanks to GPK collectors Laura Ross and Ke We for sending along the Collector and Hobby Pack odds. A few things to highlight based on the Collector odds. Bloody Red parallels return to Collector packs, numbered /75 just like the Apple Pie release. Topps made no mention of these on the sell sheet. In another change, the Bloody red border cards are either pink or red depending on the card number. The red borders are the “a” cards while the pink borders are the “b” cards. This repeats a trend started in the Apple Pie series with the Black/Blue Bruised border cards. Topps has also changed  the numbering on Patches and Relics. Patches are now numbered /99, meaning there are twice as many of those compared to previous releases. It will be much easier to put that insert set together. However, the artist shirt relics are now only /50. With only 4 versions on the checklist, those will be very hard to come by.

Overall it seems Collector box production is on par compared to the Apple Pie release. Odds are a little tougher for card types that are shared across packs like the gold parallel, autos, and plates compared to the Apple Pie set, but that is due to retail production being increased significantly. Card types exclusive to Collector packs are either the same as Apple Pie like with the Shaped Sketch cards, or slightly lower with the Dual Artist sketches. Given there are more sketches available this time around, I’m guessing production is very close compared to the Apple Pie release.

Hobby boxes don’t have any surprises. Everything expected in Hobby packs are there. Production for Hobby boxes, like Collector boxes, appears to be right around the same as the Apple Pie series. I’ll have a complete breakdown next week with two articles taking a stab at production numbers for Prime Slime Trashy TV

Here are the pack odds for 2016 Prime Slime Trashy TV Collector:

Spit – 1:4
Bloody Nose – 1:2
Fool’s Gold – 1:58
Printing Plate – 1:288
Artist Autograph – 1:96
GPK Wacky Packages 1:24
Shaped Sketch Card – 1:144
Dual Artist Panoramic Sketch Card – 1:352
Patch Card – 1:35
Artist Relic 1:175

Here are the pack odds for 2016 Prime Slime Trashy TV Hobby:

Spit – 1:4
Fool’s Gold – 1:58
Printing Plate – 1:1792
Artist Autograph – 1:245
GPK Wacky Packages – 1:24
Shaped Sketch Card – 1:165