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2018S1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s Hobby Collector Odds

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While its still one day before the official release, packs of 2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We hate the 80’s has started to show up in the wild. Thanks to GPK collector Ke We for sending over the odds for the Collector Packs. After overstating the odds by double on the last series, 2017S2, Topps has appeared to fix the problem with the new release. The odds look vary familiar to what collectors are used to seeing. A few interesting things to point out. The odds to Blue and Red borders are listed as the same at 1:3. However, keep in mind these are probably averages. More than likely boxes will yield similar number of parallels as previously releases. For the special cards like sketches, autos, and plates, the odds across the board are just slightly easier than 2017S2 Battle of the Bands. That would seem to indicate a slight decrease in production. However, overall breaks of collector boxes should look vary similar to the previous series. Finally odds for the Sitcom Autos are very tough, those will be hard to come by. Hobby/Retail box odds are posted below. Like the other types of packs the odds are slightly different for the various hits. Here are the odds for Collector and Hobby/Retail packs.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Collector Pack Odds

  • Spit (Blue) 1:3
  • Bloody Nose (Red) 1:3
  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1190
  • Artist Autograph 1:189
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1844
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers 1:24
  • Shaped Sketch 1:76
  • Dual Artist Panoramic Sketch 1:376
  • Patch Card 1:39

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Hobby/Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1,196
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1890
  • Sketch Card 1:256

 

2018S1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s Retail Odds

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2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s is set to officially tomorrow, 1/17. However, that hasn’t stopped boxes from getting out early. Odds for Gravity Feeds, Blasters, and Jumbo Retail packs are below. Blaster odds are just slightly better for all pack hits, indicating a slightly less number of Blasters were made compared to the last set. However Loaded sketch odds are higher. Coupled with better odds for other types, it would appear less Loaded Sketches were inserted into Blasters. The Jumbo odds are generally half of the retail pack odds. That is not the case with this release. All card types shared with retail are easier, in some cases much easier especially with plates and sketches. Odds also indicate quite a bit less Jumbo packs were made of this set than the previous Battle of the Bands. Gravity feed odds closely resemble the odds on Blaster packs, which just a couple of small insignificant differences. It would also appear less Gravity feed packs were created. Sitcom Autographs can be found in every pack type, which helps explain the long odds. Once we get regular retail odds we will post them below. Here are all the retail pack odds.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Blaster Pack/Box Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1211
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1926
  • Regular Sketch 1:256
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:79 (Blaster Boxes)

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Jumbo Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:20
  • Printing Plate 1:482
  • Artist Autograph 1:76
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:755
  • Regular Sketch 1:103
  • Panoramic Sketch 1:532

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Gravity Feed Pack Odds

  • Phlegm 1:4
  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1207
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1886
  • Regular Sketch 1:257

How Many 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Cards Were Produced? Part 2

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This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

  • Total Production – 441,000 Packs
  • Collector – 41,000 Collector Packs or 1700 Collector Boxes or 213 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 400,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figured it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Spit /99, Bloody /75, and Fool’s Gold /50 for the parallels, and Patches /50 and Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Still there are some things we just can’t determine. Topps has made it tough on us in recent releases. They no longer share a lot of information on the sell sheets for insertion numbers. This means we can not figure out each different retail pack type. Therefore, there are many retail items that we are unable to determine the production on. For example, the Yellow Phlegm borders. Since there is no way to break out the number of gravity feed packs from the other retail packs, we can not determine how many Phlegm borders were made. This also true for the various retail bonus sets; Classic Rock (Jumbo Insert Set), Gross Bears, and Bathroom Buddies. However, with production being slightly down compared to Adam-Geddon, you should see similar numbers of those this series. The lack of retail breakdown also means we can not determine how many Loaded Sketches or Panoramic Sketches were inserted into packs.

Let’s discuss what we can figure out.

While we can’t figure out the Yellow Phlegm parallel, we can determine how many of the other two non-numbered parallels were made. We can also find out how many of the Concert Posters & Album Covers bonus inserts were made.

  • Bruised Borders – 41,000 Collector packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 41,000 total Bruised borders / 180 cards in set = 227 per card.
  • Puke Borders – 400,000 Retail packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 400,000 total Puke borders / 180 cards in set = 2,222 per card.
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers – 41,000 Collector packs  / 24 Odds = 1700 total cards / 10 in set = 170 of each card made.

How do these numbers compare to the previous set, Adam-Geddon? Since there was 5,000 more Collector packs this time the total amount of Bruised parallels is higher. Conversely, with retail being down slightly the number of Puke parallels dropped just a bit. Finally, the Collector only bonus insert set of Concert Posters & Album Covers is also up due to the additional Collector pack production.

One thing I always find interesting is to determine what pack types the printing plates and artist autographs are hiding? Retail always has the majority of the plates because over 80% of the production is retail. We know Topps inserted 360 plates into the production, so here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

  • Collector Plates – 41,000 packs / 1206 odds = 34 plates in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Plates – 400,000 packs / 1234 odds = 324 plates in Retail packs
  • Collector Autos – 41,000 packs / 192 odds = 214 autos in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Autos – 400,000 packs / 192 odds = 2083 in Retail/Hobby packs

A couple of interesting things to point on on the Plate and Autograph distribution. We can also use this number to corroborate  our total pack numbers. Using our pack numbers with the odds comes out to 358 total plates inserted, thats really close to the 360 we know they put in packs. Using the pack numbers with Autograph odds we get a total of 2,297. We know there are 2,250 inserted into packs. Again pretty darn close. This is another reason why I’m confident in the total pack numbers. The other interesting thing I noticed is even though Collector production is up, the same number of plates and autos are in Collector packs as Adam-Geddon. This explains why the odds are a little bit harder than the last series for those two card types.

Topps has continued their practice of not revealing how many total sketches of each type are inserted into packs. While we can’t figure out all sketch types, there is a few we can determine based on odds.

Shaped Sketches – 41,000 Collector packs / 79 odds = 518 Shaped Sketches in Collector packs.
Regular Sketches – 400,000 Retail/Hobby packs / 261 odds = 1532 Regular Sketches in Retail/Hobby packs
Dial Artist Panoramic – 41,000 Collector packs / 395 odds = 103 Dual Artist Panoramic Sketches in Collector packs.

The number of sketches is up compared to the last series. The reason for this could be the large increase in sketch artists compared to Adam-Geddon. So far there are 49 confirmed sketch artists for Battle of the Bands. Therefore, the odds are a little easier this time around for pulling a sketch card.

The production numbers of Battle of the Bands show interest in Garbage Pail Kids remains consistent throughout 2017. How the next set, We Hate the 80’s, turns out will be interesting.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (41,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (400,000 Retail/Hobby packs X 7 cards per pack) = 3,046,000 Total Base Cards produced / 180 cards per set = 16,922 Total of each base card.

While that’s a ton, its down just slightly compared to Adam-Geddon. Time to get your groove on, and pick up a set of 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017 GPK Adam-Geddon. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

How Many 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Cards Were Produced? Part 1

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This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. To read Part 2 click here.

Topps started out 2017 with a retail Garbage Pail Kids set that was well received by collectors. Collectors enjoyed both the art and gags of the Adam-Geddon set. Then Topps took a long 9 month break before the next retail set. The last 9 months were filled with various online exclusives. Collectors however, tired of the daily presidential cards, and Topps discontinued those in early summer. Topps kept up with regular small online sets in the remaining months, celebrating awards shows and holidays. Topps took a different direction with the second set of 2017. This time doing a set based entirely on musical acts. Would this new theme affect production? Or does the long 9 month absence make a GPK collector’s heart grow fonder? I’m going to attempt to answer those questions in a two part series on GPK Battle of the Bands production. And I’m going to try to do it despite Topps printing incorrect odds on the packages. The easy part? Topps stuck with nearly the same exact format as Adam-Geddon. The hard part? Topps doesn’t make it easy and has shared less and less info with each passing set. Let’s do some math!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To start we need to determine how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Collector and Retail/Hobby packs. This time around there are actually two types of cards this works for, Fools Gold borders and Artist Autographs. Which is great, so we can double check our numbers. Let’s look at the Gold borders first. The odds state that Gold borders fall at 1:98 packs.

Wait just a second….1:98?!? That’s about double of the last set! Did Topps really produce twice the amount of cards for Battle of the Bands? The answer is, no. As you will see throughout this article, I believe Topps has overstated all the odds on the parallels by double. (GPKNews has contacted Topps for comment on the incorrect odds, but Topps has not responded to that request.) How do I know? Three reasons, and they support each other. 1) The numbers don’t match up. The odds appear to be correct for all other card types like patches, sketches, etc. You can’t have parallel odds be double, and all the other inserts be half. 2) Every break from my personal experience and speaking to collectors large and small show the parallels are falling a twice the stated rate. 3) There is no way Topps doubled production, there isn’t the support for that many cards. Therefore, throughout this article and Part 2, I will be cutting the odds in half to do my calculations.

Let’s try this again, the real life odds for Gold borders is 1:49 packs. There are 180 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the backs. Therefore, 180 cards X 50 number of golds per card = 9000 total Gold borders X 49 odds = 441,000 total packs made for release. The number of packs is very close to last series.

Are we sure about 441,000 packs being correct? Let’s check, this time using Artist Autographs. Because autos aren’t a parallel card, the stated odds on the packs appear to be correct. There are 90 different autos in the set X 25 autos per card = 2250 total autos in the print run X 192 odds – 432,000. That is really close to the number we are up with using Gold borders. So why is it different? Its Topps, who knows! Really though I’ve noticed Topps rounds the odds, so the real odds might be slightly higher or lower. One other note on total packs. After changing things up for Adam-Geddon, Topps has returned to Jumbo Retail pack odds being exactly 1/2 of a retail pack. This makes our calculations a lot easier. Just keep in mind that Jumbo packs count as 2 regular packs within our totals. I’m going to use 441,000 as our number going forward. Its going to make the calculations easier, and gives Topps the benefit of the doubt on production.

Next we need to try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for the set. Collector packs are always easier to figure out because they have the cards that are exclusive to the set. We need card types that are only in Collector packs, and we know already how many were made. Once again there are three types, Patches, Bloody Red borders, and Spit Blue borders. Here’s what the math looks like on those:

  • Patch Cards – 20 cards in set X 50 made per card = 1000 total patches x 41 odds = 41,000 Collector packs made
  • Bloody Red borders – 180 cards in set X 75 made per card = 13,500 total Red borders X 3 odds = 40,5000 Collector packs made
  • Spit Blue borders – 180 cards in set X 99 made per card = 17,820 total Blue borders X 2 odds = 35,640 Collector packs made

As we can see the numbers for Patch cards and Red borders are really close. However, the Blue borders seem to be off a bit. Why is that? Remember, I mentioned above that Topps rounds the odds on the packs. When it comes to Red borders collectors are pulling exactly 8 per box which is 1:3. Blue borders however are seeing 11 per box for most boxes. That makes the real odds slightly higher than 1:2, and the pack total would therefore be higher. I am confident in using 41,000 as the number for total Collector packs produced.

How about other pack types? Once again Hobby boxes are nonexistent, and exist in name only. Starting with Adam-Geddon Topps has made Hobby boxes the same as Regular Retail boxes. There are no longer any marks on the packs or boxes that distinguish a Hobby box vs. a Retail box. Also, the odds are exactly the same. Since all cards types are the same there is no way to tell how many Hobby/Retail boxes were produced. Sadly the same holds true for retail packs. In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made, we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. The only cards types that are individual to retail packs are Loaded Sketches and Panoramic Sketches. Topps no longer releases how many sketches are inserted into each pack type. So just like with Adam-Geddon the rest of our discussion will combine all Hobby/Retail pack types into one number. Keep in mind a Jumbo Retail packs counts as 2 packs in our numbers.

We know there are 41,000 Collector packs. How many Retail/Hobby packs to we have? 441,000 total packs – 41,000 Collector packs = 400,000 Retail/Hobby packs. That sounds like a whole lot of packs, but in reality, Battle of the Bands is the lowest produced GPK set in the last two years.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Adam-Geddon:

  • Total Production – 441,000 Packs
  • Collector – 41,000 Collector Packs or about 1700 Hobby Boxes or about 213 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 400,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

(Once again my numbers could be off. We had to make some assumptions, trust the sell sheet, all while ignoring the printed odds. But I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? Production is down compared to the previous set, Adam-Geddon. However, the numbers are really close to what was produced with the Adam-Geddon set. In looking at the numbers, production of Collector boxes is actually up, while retail is down. Take a look at the last four sets and the production numbers:

  • Total Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 484,000
    • Trashy TV – 638,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 459,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 441,000 (4% decrease in total overall production vs. Adam-Geddon)
  • Collector Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 36,500
    • Trashy TV – 35,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 36,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 41,000 (12% increase vs. Adam-Geddon)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 408,500
    • Trashy TV – 550,000
    • Adam-Geddon (Includes Hobby packs) – 423,000
    • Battle of the Bands (Includes Hobby packs) – 400,000 (6% decrease vs. Adam-Geddon)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. The numbers show for the most part this set was printed in very similar quantities as Adam-Geddon. Collectors continue to gravitate to purchasing Collector boxes. More than likely collectors have stop purchasing “Hobby” boxes, since they have figured out now they are the same as Retail. In sticking to the same formula you will see similar results in Part 2 to Adam-Geddon. I expect Topps to stick to this formula for the first set of 2018, We Hate the 80’s.

All fun stuff to think about as you bust into those new packs! Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. To read Part 2 click here.

2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Explained

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It’s been nine months since the last GPK retail release. 2017S1 GPK Adam-Geddon was well received from collectors, who enjoyed a lot of the artwork and end of the world type of gags. Topps has now launched 2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. This set is all about musical acts past and present. Topps is following almost the exact formula they used with 2017S1 Adam-Geddon, right down to the parallels and pack contents. The base set once again features 180 cards, broken down into 7 subsets based on musical genres. As has been the case for the last few years, the base cards lack card back artwork, sticker die-cuts, checklists, and numbering in on the back. You will notice the odds on the parallels are twice as high as previous sets. I believe Topps has overstated the odds. Based on box breaks parallels are falling at 1/2 rate of the stated odds. (GPKNews has reached out to Topps for comment, but as of this writing Topps has yet to respond.) I will have articles taking a stab at production numbers in a few days. To see the official Topps checklist click here. Here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set – 180 total cards made up of 7 different subsets.
    • Pop Stickers (21a/b – 42 Total Cards)
    • Classic Rock Stickers (20a/b – 40 Total Cards)
    • Hard Rock Stickers (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • Metal Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • New Wave & Punk Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Alternative Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Rap and R&B Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
    • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:5 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Bloody Nose Border (Red) /75 – 1:6 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:98 – Retail/Hobby/Collector (180 Cards)
    • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail/Hobby (180 Cards)
    • Phlegm Border (Yellow) – 1:8 – Target Retail Gravity Feed (180 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:1206 Collector, 1:1235 Blaster, 1:1234 Hobby/Retail/Gravity, 1:610 Retail Jumbo (360 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • GPK Album Covers & Concert Posters – 1:24 – Collector (10 Cards)
    • Classic Rock Stickers – 2 Per Jumbo Retail (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Gross Bears – 3 Per SE Blaster Box (16-20,L4 – 6 Total Cards)
    • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per EA Blaster Box (10-12a/b – 6 Total Cards)
    • Patch Card /50 – 1:41 – Collector (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:192 Collector, Hobby, Retail (90 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
    • Sketch Card – 1:262 Blaster, 1:261 Hobby/Retail (49 Artists)
    • Shaped Sketch – 1:79 – Collector (49 Artists)
    • Double Artist Panoramic Sketch – 1:395 – Collector (?? Artists)
    • Loaded Sketch – 1:71 – Blaster Box (49 Artists)
    • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:538 – Jumbo Retail (49 Artists)

2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Retail Odds

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With the official release day of 10/18, cards for the next retail series, 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands, have begun showing up. Thanks to Clint Coleman of GPK & Wacky Warehouse for sending along pictures of the first packs he’s been able to open. Odds for all retail pack types are below; Blaster, Jumbo Retail, Gravity, and regular Retail. We posted odds on the Retail Blasters a couple of weeks ago thanks to Topps display at NYCC. We can now confirm those are indeed the odds on Blaster packs/boxes. As usual the Jumbo odds look to be 1/2 of the retail packs. Jumbo packs contains 22 cards, plus 2 Classic Rock insert cards. Topps considers those as 2 packs of retail, therefore the odds are 1/2 of what a normal retail pack in.

Based on early results it appears production is up for Battle of the Bands. In the coming days I will post articles looking at productions numbers, but comparing retail this set to retail from Adam-Geddon it looks to be higher. Of course we need to see odds from Hobby/Collector packs and the remaining Retail to make a determination. After seeing the first breaks, I am now beginning to think the odds on the parallels are overstated by double. I’ll have more on this in the coming days with some articles going over production numbers.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Blaster Pack/Box Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1235
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:262
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:71 (Blaster Boxes)

 

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Jumbo Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:49
  • Printing Plate 1:610
  • Artist Autograph 1:96
  • Regular Sketch 1:131
  • Panoramic Sketch 1:548

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Gravity Feed Pack Odds

  • Phlegm 1:8
  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:261

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:261

2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Hobby Collector Odds

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As 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands card start showing up online, there are more odds to report. Thanks to mrcandl on eBay for sending over a picture of the Collector pack odds. The odds are quite different. The pack shows odds for red and blue borders are twice as hard as previous sets. Odds like that should show 4-5 reds and blues per box. However, mrcandl reports that he is pulling about 8 reds and 11 blues per box. This is the same as previous releases, which should make the odds 1:2 or 1:3. The Gold and Autograph odds show the same exact as retail packs, while Printing Plates are very close. Do the odds being wrong on the reds and blues mean the odds are also incorrect on other types? Current Gold border odds indicate production would be double. Some possible good news for collectors is the odds for pulling sketch cards a much easier, and in some cases half of previous sets. Only time will tell based on collectors results if the odds are correct. Hobby odds are also included below. As a reminder Hobby packs/boxes are the same exact as regular Retail packs/boxes, so the odds are the same. Once again there are no designations on the packs or boxes that say they are “Hobby”. Here are the odds on Collector and Hobby/Retail packs.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Collector Pack Odds

  • Spit (Blue) 1:5
  • Bloody Nose 1:6
  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1,206
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers 1:24
  • Shaped Sketch 1:79
  • Dual Artist Panoramic Sketch 1:395
  • Patch Card 1:41

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Hobby/Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1,234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Sketch Card 1:261

Retail Blaster Odds for 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands

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Topps has display boxes for the next retail GPK set on display at their booth during this weekend’s New York Comic Con. Thanks to collector, Ke We, for sending over pictures of the boxes. On display were a Collector box, Hobby/Retail box, and Blaster box. Keith was able to get a picture of the side of the Retail Blaster box, where the odds are printed. We can take an early look at the odds for Blaster packs, and how that compares to previous sets.

Early indications are that 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Series 2 Battle of the Bands is printed in much greater quantities than the previous set, GPK Adam-Geddon. Fool’s Gold parallels are almost twice are tough to pull than before. Printing Plates and Artist Autographs also have longer odds compared to the previous release. The good news is both sketch cards and Loaded sketches are slightly easier. Without knowing how the odds look on the other pack types its not possible to tell at this point what qualities have been printed. However, based on how previous sets have been printed it would appear production is up, quite a bit. Easier sketch odds can be attributed to the large number of sketch artists for this set, while the long odds on other insert cards show production is up. We will know for sure soon, as 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands is set to release in just under two weeks on Oct. 18th.

2017S2 GPK Retail Blaster Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1235
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Sketch 1:262
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:71 (Blaster Boxes)

How Many 2017 GPK Adam-Geddon Cards Were Produced Part 2

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This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017 GPK Adam-Geddon. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2017 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Adam-Geddon. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

  • Total Production – 459,000 Packs
  • Collector – 36,000 Collector Packs or 1500 Hobby Boxes or 187 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 423,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions  and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figured it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Spit /99, Bloody /75, and Fool’s Gold /50 for the parallels, and Patches /50 and Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Still there are some things we just can’t determine. Topps has made it tough on us in recent releases. They no longer share a lot of information on the sell sheets for insertion numbers. This means we can not figure out each different retail pack type. Therefore, there are many retail items that we are unable to determine the production on. For example, the Yellow Pee borders. Since there is no way to break out the number of gravity feed packs from the other retail packs, we can not determine how many Pee borders were made. This also true for the various retail bonus sets; Classic Adamgeddon, Gross Bears, and Bathroom Buddies. However, with production down 28% compared to Prime Slime, there will be a lot less of these sets. The lack of retail breakdown also means we can not determine how many Loaded Sketches or Panoramic Sketches were inserted into packs.

Let’s discuss what we can figure out.

While we can’t figure out the Yellow Pee parallel, we can determine how many of the other two non-numbered parallels were made. We can also find out how many of the Best of the Presidential Election bonus inserts were made.

  • Bruised Borders – 36,000 Collector packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 36,000 total Bruised borders / 180 cards in set = 200 per card.
  • Puke Borders – 423,000 Retail packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 423,000 total Puke borders / 180 cards in set = 2,350 per card.
  • Best of Presidential – 36,000 Collector packs  / 24 Odds = 1500 total cards / 10 in set = 150 of each card made.

Some very interesting things to point out in those numbers. Because there are 1000 more Collector packs compared to Prime Slime, there are actually more Bruised cards this time. However due to production cuts in retail there are now less Puke cards. Perhaps the biggest different is in the Best of Presidential “Bonus” cards. In previous sets you would get one card per Collector & Hobby box. With Topps chasing Hobby boxes to match retail the cards were only available in Collector boxes this time. That means more than a 40% cut in available bonus sets with this release. There can only be 150 Bonus sets possible this time. These cards might dry up quickly.

One thing I always find interesting is to determine what pack types the printing plates and artist autographs are hiding? Retail always had the majority of the plates because over 80% of the production is retail. We know Topps inserted 360 plates into the production, so here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

  • Collector Plates – 36,000 packs / 1062 odds = 34 plates in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Plates – 423,000 packs / 1073 odds = 394 plates in Retail packs
  • Collector Autos – 36,000 packs / 168 odds = 214 autos in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Autos – 423,000 packs / 168 odds = 2517 in Retail/Hobby packs

First an explanation on why the numbers for each are higher that they should be. If you remember back in Part 1 of our discussion, I talked about Topps chasing the odds on Jumbo Retail packs this year. Previously the odds would be halved on everything for Jumbo packs, therefore a Jumbo pack would count as 2 packs. However, this time for Plates and Autos that is not the case. Our pack number of 423,000 assumes Jumbos as 2 packs, this is why the numbers come out a little bit more. I think the main thing to point out here is plates will be few and far between in Collector boxes, this is a change from previous releases where they fell at a much higher rate.

Topps has continued their practice of not revealing how many total sketches of each type are inserted into packs. While we can’t figure out all sketch types, there is a few we can determine based on odds.

Shaped Sketches – 36,000 Collector packs / 178 odds = 202 Shaped Sketches in Collector packs.
Regular Sketches – 423,000 Retail/Hobby packs / 326 odds = 1297 Regular Sketches in Retail/Hobby packs
Dial Artist Panoramic – 36,000 Collector packs / 694 odds = 52 Dual Artist Panoramic Sketches in Collector packs.

A couple of things stand out right away. Hobby boxes no longer contain Shaped Sketches, therefore there is more than 60% fewer Shaped sketches in this release. Dual Artist Panoramic Sketches are cut by almost 50% compared to Prime Slime. This matches information shared by the artists when they began drawing the sketches. They were giving far less to draw for this release.

Looking at the numbers for Adam-Geddon really tells a story, but also leaves many unanswered questions. Production was cut way back compared to recent sets. Is interest falling in retail GPK sets? Or is this just distributors over correcting because of over ordering on Prime Slime? Topps has yet to announce the next retail GPK set. It will be interesting to see how the smaller set size coupled with the lower print run affects the next GPK set.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (36,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (423,000 Retail/Hobby packs X 7 cards per pack) = 3,177,000 Total Base Cards produced / 180 cards per set = 17,650 Total of each base card.

While that’s a ton, its down from over 25,000 of each Prime Slime card. Get those sets while you can!!!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017 GPK Adam-Geddon. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

How Many 2017 Adam-Geddon Cards Were Produced? Part 1

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This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Adam-Geddon. Click here for Part 2.

Topps closed out 2016 with a retail Garbage Pail Kids set that was produced in higher numbers than recent sets. The TV show theme didn’t always resonate either, as many complaints came in with collectors not understanding the gags. Throughout the last 10 months, Topps has also gone full steam ahead with various GPK online exclusives. Collectors did seem to be a little more excited when the theme of the first set of 2017 was released. Would the new Adam-Geddon theme with classic characters propel the new set to higher production? Or would over-production and collector apathy result in lower demand? I’m going to attempt to answer those questions in this two part series on the Adam-Geddon production. While Topps has kept a similar format as the previous releases, they still made some pretty major changes this time around. Some of those changes unfortunately makes it even harder to break down specific production numbers. Let’s see what we can actually figure out.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to hear about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

First we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need to use a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Hobby, Collector, and Retail packs. Once again there is only one card type that fits that description in this set, the Fool’s Gold borders, at 1:51. Here is what we know, there are 180 cards in the set. Fool’s Gold cards are numbered on the back to /50. Therefore, 180 cards X 50 number of golds per card = 9,000 total Fool’s Gold cards X 51 odds = 459,000 total packs made for the release. This is our first stop along the way where things could go wrong. There is only one card type shared across all pack types with similar odds. As you’ll see in a later discussion, while Autos and Plates are also shared across each pack type, Topps has drastically changed the odds on Jumbo Retail packs, therefore throwing off the numbers. We have to use what we have available to us. I believe this is a good starting point, and gets us on the path to more information.

Now let’s try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for this release. Collector packs are always the easiest to figure out because they always contain cards that are exclusively made for the set. This time there is one type of insert and two parallels that are exclusive to Collector boxes, and are numbered on the back.

  • Patch Cards – 20 cards in set X 50 made per card = 1000 total patches X 36 odds = 36,000 Collector packs made
  • Bloody Red Border – 180 cards in set X 75 made per card = 13,500 total Bloody borders X 3 odds = 40,500 Collector packs made
  • Spit Blue Border – 180 cards in set X 99 made per card = 17,820 total Spit borders X 2 odds = 35,640 Collector packs made

The numbers are very close for two types, but off on the Bloody borders. Here’s why I think they are off. The actual odds for Bloody borders are probably lower than 1:3, but Topps rounds up on the packs. I’m willing to bet most collectors will average more than 8 Bloody borders per collector box, early box results show most boxes with 9 reds. I believe this gives us a good number of Collector packs. I’m going to go with 36,000 for our purposes throughout the rest of our discussion.

Now let’s move onto Hobby packs. Darn you Topps! This was one of the major changes Topps made in the configuration of the product this year. Hobby packs are basically Retail packs now. There is nothing to distinguish a Hobby pack from a basic Retail pack. In previous releases we could use a card type that Hobby and Collector packs shared, that we also knew the print run of. Since that no longer exists, and we can’t tell the difference in packs, there is no way to determine how many Hobby packs were produced. While this is frustrating, it won’t stop our quest! For the rest of our discussion I will combine Hobby packs into Retail packs.

We know we have 36,000 Collector packs. So how many Retail/Hobby packs do we have? 459,000 total packs – 36,000 Collector packs = 423,000 Retail/Hobby packs. While that’s a lot of packs, is significantly less than previous releases. One way I use to be able to double check my numbers was to use another card type that is in all pack types, where we know the print run. There are two types that fit that description, Autos and Plates. Let’s looks at the numbers for both types.

  • 90 autos in set * 25 print run = 2,250 total autos * 168 odds = 378,000 total packs
  • 360 total plates * 1070 Avg. odds = 385,000 total packs

What a second….that’s a lot less total packs than what we came up with earlier. We can’t use these numbers because of another change Topps made on the odds. In previous releases the Jumbo Retail packs counted as 2 regular packs. All the odds on Jumbo packs would be exactly half of a regular pack. So it made it very easy to just count each Jumbo pack as 2 packs. With Adam-Geddon only Fool’s Gold and Sketch cards have the odds halved. The Plate and Auto odds are the same as other retail packs. That tells us plates and autos will be much harder to pull in Jumbo retail than regular retail packs. It also explains why the total pack numbers are lower when we use these numbers above. Its only counting the Jumbo packs as 1 pack, which makes sense based on the odds.

That leaves us with 423,000 Retail/Hobby packs. We can however deduce from the number above there is right around 45,000 Jumbo packs produced. We aren’t however able to break down the pack distribution any further with this series. We don’t know the total print run of the various sketch types. Those are the only other different card type inserted into packs. So the best we can do is come up with a total retail pack number of 423,000.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Adam-Geddon:

  • Total Production – 459,000 Packs
  • Collector – 36,000 Collector Packs or 1500 Hobby Boxes or 187 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 423,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

(Once again my numbers could be off. We had to make some assumptions and trust the sell sheets and odds. But I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? Production is way down compared to the previous set, Prime Slime Trashy TV. This looks to be the lowest set produced since I started running the numbers. Take a look at the last three sets and the production numbers:

  • Total Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 484,000
    • Trashy TV – 638,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 459,000 (28% decrease in total overall production vs. Trashy TV)
  • Collector Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 36,500
    • Trashy TV – 35,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 36,000 (3% increase vs. Trashy TV)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 408,500
    • Trashy TV – 550,000
    • Adam-Geddon (Includes Hobby packs) – 423,000 (23% decrease vs. Trashy TV, that includes hobby packs added in)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. The numbers tell me this set was under ordered compared to previous releases. It shows collectors continue to purchase Collector cases in similar numbers. However, retail orders appear to be down significantly from previous sets. Topps made other changes as well that affects the print run. The base set is almost 20% smaller than previous sets. Topps also changed the number of cards in a pack, to 8 across the board. As you will see in part two all this changes how many of each card type exists.

All fun stuff to think about as you bust into those new packs! Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Adam-Geddon. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 can be found here.