Tag Archives: Odds

How Many 2018S1 GPK We Hate the 80’s Cards Were Produced? Part 1

Posted on by

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2018 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s. Part 2 will be posting soon.

Topps had a solid 2017 when it came to retail sets. Both Adam-Geddon and Battle of the Bands were well received by collectors. Battle of the Bands was released just last October. After taking a 3 month break, Topps is back with the first set of the year, 2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s. Despite the short window of time between releases, collectors have been eagerly anticipating We Hate the 80’s. The majority of collectors grew up in the 80’s, and that’s when the GPK phenomenon took off. How does that anticipation affect production, if any? Let’s see what we can figure out. This time around however, as you will see, Topps threw us a curveball with the odds. Time to get down and dirty with numbers!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To start we need to determine how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Collector and Retail/Hobby packs. In the past this was easy. Historically, Topps has used the same exact odds for both the Gold borders and the Artist autographs. For the most part that stays the same this set, with one exception. For the first time, Topps changed up the Jumbo Retail pack odds. Usually they are 1/2 of all the other packs, because there is double the amount of cards. So in the past we counted Jumbo packs as two packs. Now as you will see below the numbers are slightly off. The only way to possibly take a stab at this is to assume the Jumbo odds are 1/2 a regular pack. Just keep in mind the odds are slightly easier for the Jumbo Retail packs, making production numbers actually less than what I have stated in the article. Its not by a lot, but our numbers are off a bit.

One important thing Topps did fix this time around was the parallel odds, compared to Battle of the Bands. If you remember the odds printed on Battle of the Bands were overstated by double. Topps has corrected that with the new release, this should lead to less confusion.

Gold borders this time are set at 1:48 packs in Collector, Retail, Blaster, and Gravity packs. The exception is Jumbo retail packs, at 1:20, if we double those we still only get 1:40, which is slightly less that it should be. If we assume the odds were printed correctly by Topps, that will throw of our numbers just slightly. In order to come up with an estimate, we will use the 1:48 number. There are 180 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the back. Therefore, 180 X 50 number of golds per card = 9000 total Gold borders X 48 odds = 432,000 total packs made for release. While very close to the previous release, this does indicate production is down.

Can we be sure about 432,000 packs being made? We can also check total pack production using the Artist Autographs. There are 90 different autos in the set X 25 autos per card = 2,250 total autos in the print run x 188 odds = 423,000. That number is pretty close to the number we got when using the Gold odds. Why the difference? A few reasons, the odds for autos in Collector is different by one, 1:189. Also remember Jumbo Retail pack odds are easier at 1:76. Double that we only have 1:152. This I think helps explain the difference in the numbers. I am going to use the 432,000 number for total packs made. Just keep in mind the production is actually a little less due to the Jumbo Retail odds.

Next we need to try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for the set. Collector packs are always easier to figure out because they have the cards that are exclusive to the set. We need card types that are only in Collector packs, and we know already how many were made. Once again there are three types, Patches, Bloody Red borders, and Spit Blue borders. Here’s what the math looks like on those:

  • Patch Cards – 20 cards in set X 50 made per card = 1000 total patches x 39 odds = 39,000 Collector packs made
  • Bloody Red borders – 180 cards in set X 75 made per card = 13,500 total Red borders X 3 odds = 40,500 Collector packs made
  • Spit Blue borders – 180 cards in set X 99 made per card = 17,820 total Blue borders X 3 odds = 53,460 Collector packs made

Ok so what gives here? Why in the world are the numbers so different? You will notice that the numbers for the Patches and Red borders are pretty close, but the Blue borders are way off. Topps did something different for the first time on the Collector odds. Both the Red and Blue borders are listed with the same exact odds at 1:3. In the past, every set has had the odds listed as 1:3 for Reds and 1:2 for Blues. We also know from previous sets that those weren’t the true odds. Topps usually rounds the odds up or down to the nearest whole number. I have no idea why Topps changed the Blue odds to 1:3. In real world box busting the number of actual blues and reds pulled has remained the same. Collector boxes are averaging 8 Reds and 11 Blues per box. This is consistent with previous releases. I believe the Blue Spit odds are the one thing Topps incorrectly printed on the packs, and the actual odds are closer to 1:2. This would put the total pack numbers more in line with the other two cards types. I’m confident using 39,000 as the number for total Collector packs produced.

How about other pack types? Once again Hobby boxes are nonexistent, and exist in name only. Starting with Adam-Geddon Topps has made Hobby boxes the same as Regular Retail boxes. There are no longer any marks on the packs or boxes that distinguish a Hobby box vs. a Retail box. Also, the odds are exactly the same. Since all cards types are the same there is no way to tell how many Hobby/Retail boxes were produced. Sadly the same holds true for retail packs. In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made, we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. The only cards types that are individual to retail packs are Loaded Sketches and Panoramic Sketches. Topps no longer releases how many sketches are inserted into each pack type. So just like with Battle of the Bands the rest of our discussion will combine all Hobby/Retail pack types into one number. Keep in mind a Jumbo Retail packs counts as 2 packs in our numbers.

We know there are 39,000 Collector packs. How many Retail/Hobby packs to we have? 432,000 total packs – 39,000 Collector packs = 393,000 Retail/Hobby packs. That sounds like a whole lot of packs, but in reality, We Hate the 80’s is the lowest produced GPK set in the last three years, barely beating out the previous set, Battle of the Bands.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for We Hate the 80’s:

  • Total Production – 432,000 Packs
  • Collector – 39,000 Collector Packs or about 1625 Hobby Boxes or about 203 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 393,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

(Once again our numbers are slightly off due to the easier Jumbo Retail odds. So in reality there is even less production of We Hate the 80’s than stated. However, I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? Once again the trend of production numbers being down continues. I’m a little surprised as Battle of the Bands was well like by collectors.  Maybe the quick turnaround between sets affected how many cases were ordered by distributors. In looking at the numbers, while Collector box production is down compared to the last set its still the second highest by Collector box. Take a look at the last five sets and the production numbers:

  • Total Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 484,000
    • Trashy TV – 638,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 459,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 441,000
    • We Hate the 80’s – 439,000 (<.1% decrease in total overall production vs. Battle of the Bands)
  • Collector Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 36,500
    • Trashy TV – 35,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 36,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 41,000
    • We Hate the 80’s – 39,000 (5% decrease vs. Battle of the Bands)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 408,500
    • Trashy TV – 550,000
    • Adam-Geddon (Includes Hobby packs) – 423,000
    • Battle of the Bands (Includes Hobby packs) – 400,000
    • We Hate the 80’s (Includes Hobby packs) – 393,000 (2% decrease vs. Battle of the Bands)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. The numbers show for the most part this set was printed in very similar quantities as both Adam-Geddon and Battle of the Bands. Collectors continue to gravitate to purchasing Collector boxes. More than likely collectors have stop purchasing “Hobby” boxes, since they have figured out now they are the same as Retail. With production numbers trending downwards just slightly, it will be interesting to see if Topps changes anything up in the formula for the new retail series.

Always interesting stuff to consider. Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2018S1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s Explained

Posted on by

It seems like only yesterday when the last retail set of 2017 was released. 2017S2 Battle of the Bands was a hit with collectors. A number of cards were very sought after as collectors focused on collecting their favorite bands. Its time for 2018 to get started with another complete shift in theme material. 2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s is trying to hit collectors right in their childhood. Many collectors grew up in the 80’s, and this set’s focus is completely for them. While sticking with the same subset formula, Topps made it a bit easier this time around. The 180 cards set is broken down in to 10 equal subsets. Topps remains committed to the same formula they used for a number of years now. The cards continue to lack card back artwork, sticker die-cuts, checklists, and numbering is on the back. I will have articles looking at production numbers in the coming days. To see the official Topps checklist click here. Here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set – 180 total cards made up of 10 different subsets.
    • 80’s Toys Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Cartoons Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Video Games Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s TV Shows & Ads Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Movies Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Celebrities Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Fashion & Fads Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Culture Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s History Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • 80’s Sitcom Sticker (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
    • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:3 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Bloody Nose Border (Red) /75 – 1:3 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:48 – Retail/Hobby/Collector, 1:20 Retail Jumbo (180 Cards)
    • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail/Hobby (180 Cards)
    • Phlegm Border (Yellow) – 1:4 – Target Retail Gravity Feed (180 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:1190 Collector, 1:1211 Blaster, 1:1196 Hobby/Retail, 1:1207 Gravity, 1:482 Retail Jumbo (360 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • 80’s Wax Pack Parodies – 1:24 – Collector (10 Cards)
    • Classic 80’s Stickers – 2 Per Jumbo Retail (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Gross Bears – 3 Per SE Blaster Box (21-28 – 8 Total Cards)
    • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per EA Blaster Box (13-15a/b – 6 Total Cards)
    • Patch Card /50 – 1:39 – Collector (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:189 Collector, 1:188 Hobby/Retail, 1:76 Jumbo Retail (90 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
    • 80’s Sitcom Autograph Cards /25 – 1:1844 Collector, 1:1926 Blaster, 1:1890 Hobby/Retail, 1:1866 Gravity, 1:755 Retail Jumbo (9 Total Cards)
    • Sketch Card – 1:256 Blaster/Hobby/Retail, 1:257 Gravity, 1:103 Jumbo Retail (55 Artists)
    • Shaped Sketch – 1:76 – Collector (55 Artists)
    • Double Artist Panoramic Sketch – 1:376 – Collector (?? Artists)
    • Loaded Sketch – 1:79 – Blaster Box (55 Artists)
    • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:532 – Jumbo Retail (55 Artists)

2018S1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s Hobby Collector Odds

Posted on by

While its still one day before the official release, packs of 2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We hate the 80’s has started to show up in the wild. Thanks to GPK collector Ke We for sending over the odds for the Collector Packs. After overstating the odds by double on the last series, 2017S2, Topps has appeared to fix the problem with the new release. The odds look vary familiar to what collectors are used to seeing. A few interesting things to point out. The odds to Blue and Red borders are listed as the same at 1:3. However, keep in mind these are probably averages. More than likely boxes will yield similar number of parallels as previously releases. For the special cards like sketches, autos, and plates, the odds across the board are just slightly easier than 2017S2 Battle of the Bands. That would seem to indicate a slight decrease in production. However, overall breaks of collector boxes should look vary similar to the previous series. Finally odds for the Sitcom Autos are very tough, those will be hard to come by. Hobby/Retail box odds are posted below. Like the other types of packs the odds are slightly different for the various hits. Here are the odds for Collector and Hobby/Retail packs.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Collector Pack Odds

  • Spit (Blue) 1:3
  • Bloody Nose (Red) 1:3
  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1190
  • Artist Autograph 1:189
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1844
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers 1:24
  • Shaped Sketch 1:76
  • Dual Artist Panoramic Sketch 1:376
  • Patch Card 1:39

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Hobby/Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1,196
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1890
  • Sketch Card 1:256

 

2018S1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s Retail Odds

Posted on by

2018 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids We Hate the 80’s is set to officially tomorrow, 1/17. However, that hasn’t stopped boxes from getting out early. Odds for Gravity Feeds, Blasters, and Jumbo Retail packs are below. Blaster odds are just slightly better for all pack hits, indicating a slightly less number of Blasters were made compared to the last set. However Loaded sketch odds are higher. Coupled with better odds for other types, it would appear less Loaded Sketches were inserted into Blasters. The Jumbo odds are generally half of the retail pack odds. That is not the case with this release. All card types shared with retail are easier, in some cases much easier especially with plates and sketches. Odds also indicate quite a bit less Jumbo packs were made of this set than the previous Battle of the Bands. Gravity feed odds closely resemble the odds on Blaster packs, which just a couple of small insignificant differences. It would also appear less Gravity feed packs were created. Sitcom Autographs can be found in every pack type, which helps explain the long odds. Once we get regular retail odds we will post them below. Here are all the retail pack odds.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Blaster Pack/Box Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1211
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1926
  • Regular Sketch 1:256
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:79 (Blaster Boxes)

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Jumbo Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:20
  • Printing Plate 1:482
  • Artist Autograph 1:76
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:755
  • Regular Sketch 1:103
  • Panoramic Sketch 1:532

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Gravity Feed Pack Odds

  • Phlegm 1:4
  • Fools Gold 1:48
  • Printing Plate 1:1207
  • Artist Autograph 1:188
  • Sitcom Autograph 1:1886
  • Regular Sketch 1:257

How Many 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Cards Were Produced? Part 2

Posted on by

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

  • Total Production – 441,000 Packs
  • Collector – 41,000 Collector Packs or 1700 Collector Boxes or 213 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 400,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figured it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Spit /99, Bloody /75, and Fool’s Gold /50 for the parallels, and Patches /50 and Autos /25 for the insert sets!

Still there are some things we just can’t determine. Topps has made it tough on us in recent releases. They no longer share a lot of information on the sell sheets for insertion numbers. This means we can not figure out each different retail pack type. Therefore, there are many retail items that we are unable to determine the production on. For example, the Yellow Phlegm borders. Since there is no way to break out the number of gravity feed packs from the other retail packs, we can not determine how many Phlegm borders were made. This also true for the various retail bonus sets; Classic Rock (Jumbo Insert Set), Gross Bears, and Bathroom Buddies. However, with production being slightly down compared to Adam-Geddon, you should see similar numbers of those this series. The lack of retail breakdown also means we can not determine how many Loaded Sketches or Panoramic Sketches were inserted into packs.

Let’s discuss what we can figure out.

While we can’t figure out the Yellow Phlegm parallel, we can determine how many of the other two non-numbered parallels were made. We can also find out how many of the Concert Posters & Album Covers bonus inserts were made.

  • Bruised Borders – 41,000 Collector packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 41,000 total Bruised borders / 180 cards in set = 227 per card.
  • Puke Borders – 400,000 Retail packs X 1 Odds (doh) = 400,000 total Puke borders / 180 cards in set = 2,222 per card.
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers – 41,000 Collector packs  / 24 Odds = 1700 total cards / 10 in set = 170 of each card made.

How do these numbers compare to the previous set, Adam-Geddon? Since there was 5,000 more Collector packs this time the total amount of Bruised parallels is higher. Conversely, with retail being down slightly the number of Puke parallels dropped just a bit. Finally, the Collector only bonus insert set of Concert Posters & Album Covers is also up due to the additional Collector pack production.

One thing I always find interesting is to determine what pack types the printing plates and artist autographs are hiding? Retail always has the majority of the plates because over 80% of the production is retail. We know Topps inserted 360 plates into the production, so here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

  • Collector Plates – 41,000 packs / 1206 odds = 34 plates in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Plates – 400,000 packs / 1234 odds = 324 plates in Retail packs
  • Collector Autos – 41,000 packs / 192 odds = 214 autos in Collector packs
  • Retail/Hobby Autos – 400,000 packs / 192 odds = 2083 in Retail/Hobby packs

A couple of interesting things to point on on the Plate and Autograph distribution. We can also use this number to corroborate  our total pack numbers. Using our pack numbers with the odds comes out to 358 total plates inserted, thats really close to the 360 we know they put in packs. Using the pack numbers with Autograph odds we get a total of 2,297. We know there are 2,250 inserted into packs. Again pretty darn close. This is another reason why I’m confident in the total pack numbers. The other interesting thing I noticed is even though Collector production is up, the same number of plates and autos are in Collector packs as Adam-Geddon. This explains why the odds are a little bit harder than the last series for those two card types.

Topps has continued their practice of not revealing how many total sketches of each type are inserted into packs. While we can’t figure out all sketch types, there is a few we can determine based on odds.

Shaped Sketches – 41,000 Collector packs / 79 odds = 518 Shaped Sketches in Collector packs.
Regular Sketches – 400,000 Retail/Hobby packs / 261 odds = 1532 Regular Sketches in Retail/Hobby packs
Dial Artist Panoramic – 41,000 Collector packs / 395 odds = 103 Dual Artist Panoramic Sketches in Collector packs.

The number of sketches is up compared to the last series. The reason for this could be the large increase in sketch artists compared to Adam-Geddon. So far there are 49 confirmed sketch artists for Battle of the Bands. Therefore, the odds are a little easier this time around for pulling a sketch card.

The production numbers of Battle of the Bands show interest in Garbage Pail Kids remains consistent throughout 2017. How the next set, We Hate the 80’s, turns out will be interesting.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (41,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (400,000 Retail/Hobby packs X 7 cards per pack) = 3,046,000 Total Base Cards produced / 180 cards per set = 16,922 Total of each base card.

While that’s a ton, its down just slightly compared to Adam-Geddon. Time to get your groove on, and pick up a set of 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2017 GPK Adam-Geddon. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

How Many 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Cards Were Produced? Part 1

Posted on by

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. To read Part 2 click here.

Topps started out 2017 with a retail Garbage Pail Kids set that was well received by collectors. Collectors enjoyed both the art and gags of the Adam-Geddon set. Then Topps took a long 9 month break before the next retail set. The last 9 months were filled with various online exclusives. Collectors however, tired of the daily presidential cards, and Topps discontinued those in early summer. Topps kept up with regular small online sets in the remaining months, celebrating awards shows and holidays. Topps took a different direction with the second set of 2017. This time doing a set based entirely on musical acts. Would this new theme affect production? Or does the long 9 month absence make a GPK collector’s heart grow fonder? I’m going to attempt to answer those questions in a two part series on GPK Battle of the Bands production. And I’m going to try to do it despite Topps printing incorrect odds on the packages. The easy part? Topps stuck with nearly the same exact format as Adam-Geddon. The hard part? Topps doesn’t make it easy and has shared less and less info with each passing set. Let’s do some math!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To start we need to determine how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where all the odds are exactly the same in Collector and Retail/Hobby packs. This time around there are actually two types of cards this works for, Fools Gold borders and Artist Autographs. Which is great, so we can double check our numbers. Let’s look at the Gold borders first. The odds state that Gold borders fall at 1:98 packs.

Wait just a second….1:98?!? That’s about double of the last set! Did Topps really produce twice the amount of cards for Battle of the Bands? The answer is, no. As you will see throughout this article, I believe Topps has overstated all the odds on the parallels by double. (GPKNews has contacted Topps for comment on the incorrect odds, but Topps has not responded to that request.) How do I know? Three reasons, and they support each other. 1) The numbers don’t match up. The odds appear to be correct for all other card types like patches, sketches, etc. You can’t have parallel odds be double, and all the other inserts be half. 2) Every break from my personal experience and speaking to collectors large and small show the parallels are falling a twice the stated rate. 3) There is no way Topps doubled production, there isn’t the support for that many cards. Therefore, throughout this article and Part 2, I will be cutting the odds in half to do my calculations.

Let’s try this again, the real life odds for Gold borders is 1:49 packs. There are 180 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the backs. Therefore, 180 cards X 50 number of golds per card = 9000 total Gold borders X 49 odds = 441,000 total packs made for release. The number of packs is very close to last series.

Are we sure about 441,000 packs being correct? Let’s check, this time using Artist Autographs. Because autos aren’t a parallel card, the stated odds on the packs appear to be correct. There are 90 different autos in the set X 25 autos per card = 2250 total autos in the print run X 192 odds – 432,000. That is really close to the number we are up with using Gold borders. So why is it different? Its Topps, who knows! Really though I’ve noticed Topps rounds the odds, so the real odds might be slightly higher or lower. One other note on total packs. After changing things up for Adam-Geddon, Topps has returned to Jumbo Retail pack odds being exactly 1/2 of a retail pack. This makes our calculations a lot easier. Just keep in mind that Jumbo packs count as 2 regular packs within our totals. I’m going to use 441,000 as our number going forward. Its going to make the calculations easier, and gives Topps the benefit of the doubt on production.

Next we need to try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for the set. Collector packs are always easier to figure out because they have the cards that are exclusive to the set. We need card types that are only in Collector packs, and we know already how many were made. Once again there are three types, Patches, Bloody Red borders, and Spit Blue borders. Here’s what the math looks like on those:

  • Patch Cards – 20 cards in set X 50 made per card = 1000 total patches x 41 odds = 41,000 Collector packs made
  • Bloody Red borders – 180 cards in set X 75 made per card = 13,500 total Red borders X 3 odds = 40,5000 Collector packs made
  • Spit Blue borders – 180 cards in set X 99 made per card = 17,820 total Blue borders X 2 odds = 35,640 Collector packs made

As we can see the numbers for Patch cards and Red borders are really close. However, the Blue borders seem to be off a bit. Why is that? Remember, I mentioned above that Topps rounds the odds on the packs. When it comes to Red borders collectors are pulling exactly 8 per box which is 1:3. Blue borders however are seeing 11 per box for most boxes. That makes the real odds slightly higher than 1:2, and the pack total would therefore be higher. I am confident in using 41,000 as the number for total Collector packs produced.

How about other pack types? Once again Hobby boxes are nonexistent, and exist in name only. Starting with Adam-Geddon Topps has made Hobby boxes the same as Regular Retail boxes. There are no longer any marks on the packs or boxes that distinguish a Hobby box vs. a Retail box. Also, the odds are exactly the same. Since all cards types are the same there is no way to tell how many Hobby/Retail boxes were produced. Sadly the same holds true for retail packs. In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made, we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. The only cards types that are individual to retail packs are Loaded Sketches and Panoramic Sketches. Topps no longer releases how many sketches are inserted into each pack type. So just like with Adam-Geddon the rest of our discussion will combine all Hobby/Retail pack types into one number. Keep in mind a Jumbo Retail packs counts as 2 packs in our numbers.

We know there are 41,000 Collector packs. How many Retail/Hobby packs to we have? 441,000 total packs – 41,000 Collector packs = 400,000 Retail/Hobby packs. That sounds like a whole lot of packs, but in reality, Battle of the Bands is the lowest produced GPK set in the last two years.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Adam-Geddon:

  • Total Production – 441,000 Packs
  • Collector – 41,000 Collector Packs or about 1700 Hobby Boxes or about 213 Collector Cases
  • Retail/Hobby – 400,000 Retail/Hobby Packs

(Once again my numbers could be off. We had to make some assumptions, trust the sell sheet, all while ignoring the printed odds. But I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? Production is down compared to the previous set, Adam-Geddon. However, the numbers are really close to what was produced with the Adam-Geddon set. In looking at the numbers, production of Collector boxes is actually up, while retail is down. Take a look at the last four sets and the production numbers:

  • Total Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 484,000
    • Trashy TV – 638,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 459,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 441,000 (4% decrease in total overall production vs. Adam-Geddon)
  • Collector Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 36,500
    • Trashy TV – 35,000
    • Adam-Geddon – 36,000
    • Battle of the Bands – 41,000 (12% increase vs. Adam-Geddon)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Apple Pie – 408,500
    • Trashy TV – 550,000
    • Adam-Geddon (Includes Hobby packs) – 423,000
    • Battle of the Bands (Includes Hobby packs) – 400,000 (6% decrease vs. Adam-Geddon)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders, Topps decides how much product to produce. The numbers show for the most part this set was printed in very similar quantities as Adam-Geddon. Collectors continue to gravitate to purchasing Collector boxes. More than likely collectors have stop purchasing “Hobby” boxes, since they have figured out now they are the same as Retail. In sticking to the same formula you will see similar results in Part 2 to Adam-Geddon. I expect Topps to stick to this formula for the first set of 2018, We Hate the 80’s.

All fun stuff to think about as you bust into those new packs! Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. To read Part 2 click here.

2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Explained

Posted on by

It’s been nine months since the last GPK retail release. 2017S1 GPK Adam-Geddon was well received from collectors, who enjoyed a lot of the artwork and end of the world type of gags. Topps has now launched 2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands. This set is all about musical acts past and present. Topps is following almost the exact formula they used with 2017S1 Adam-Geddon, right down to the parallels and pack contents. The base set once again features 180 cards, broken down into 7 subsets based on musical genres. As has been the case for the last few years, the base cards lack card back artwork, sticker die-cuts, checklists, and numbering in on the back. You will notice the odds on the parallels are twice as high as previous sets. I believe Topps has overstated the odds. Based on box breaks parallels are falling at 1/2 rate of the stated odds. (GPKNews has reached out to Topps for comment, but as of this writing Topps has yet to respond.) I will have articles taking a stab at production numbers in a few days. To see the official Topps checklist click here. Here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2017 Series 2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set – 180 total cards made up of 7 different subsets.
    • Pop Stickers (21a/b – 42 Total Cards)
    • Classic Rock Stickers (20a/b – 40 Total Cards)
    • Hard Rock Stickers (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • Metal Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • New Wave & Punk Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Alternative Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Rap and R&B Stickers (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
    • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:5 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Bloody Nose Border (Red) /75 – 1:6 – Collector (180 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:98 – Retail/Hobby/Collector (180 Cards)
    • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail/Hobby (180 Cards)
    • Phlegm Border (Yellow) – 1:8 – Target Retail Gravity Feed (180 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:1206 Collector, 1:1235 Blaster, 1:1234 Hobby/Retail/Gravity, 1:610 Retail Jumbo (360 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • GPK Album Covers & Concert Posters – 1:24 – Collector (10 Cards)
    • Classic Rock Stickers – 2 Per Jumbo Retail (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Gross Bears – 3 Per SE Blaster Box (16-20,L4 – 6 Total Cards)
    • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per EA Blaster Box (10-12a/b – 6 Total Cards)
    • Patch Card /50 – 1:41 – Collector (10a/b – 20 Total Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:192 Collector, Hobby, Retail (90 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
    • Sketch Card – 1:262 Blaster, 1:261 Hobby/Retail (49 Artists)
    • Shaped Sketch – 1:79 – Collector (49 Artists)
    • Double Artist Panoramic Sketch – 1:395 – Collector (?? Artists)
    • Loaded Sketch – 1:71 – Blaster Box (49 Artists)
    • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:538 – Jumbo Retail (49 Artists)

2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Retail Odds

Posted on by

With the official release day of 10/18, cards for the next retail series, 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands, have begun showing up. Thanks to Clint Coleman of GPK & Wacky Warehouse for sending along pictures of the first packs he’s been able to open. Odds for all retail pack types are below; Blaster, Jumbo Retail, Gravity, and regular Retail. We posted odds on the Retail Blasters a couple of weeks ago thanks to Topps display at NYCC. We can now confirm those are indeed the odds on Blaster packs/boxes. As usual the Jumbo odds look to be 1/2 of the retail packs. Jumbo packs contains 22 cards, plus 2 Classic Rock insert cards. Topps considers those as 2 packs of retail, therefore the odds are 1/2 of what a normal retail pack in.

Based on early results it appears production is up for Battle of the Bands. In the coming days I will post articles looking at productions numbers, but comparing retail this set to retail from Adam-Geddon it looks to be higher. Of course we need to see odds from Hobby/Collector packs and the remaining Retail to make a determination. After seeing the first breaks, I am now beginning to think the odds on the parallels are overstated by double. I’ll have more on this in the coming days with some articles going over production numbers.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Blaster Pack/Box Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1235
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:262
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:71 (Blaster Boxes)

 

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Jumbo Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:49
  • Printing Plate 1:610
  • Artist Autograph 1:96
  • Regular Sketch 1:131
  • Panoramic Sketch 1:548

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Gravity Feed Pack Odds

  • Phlegm 1:8
  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:261

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Regular Sketch 1:261

2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands Hobby Collector Odds

Posted on by

As 2017S2 Garbage Pail Kids Battle of the Bands card start showing up online, there are more odds to report. Thanks to mrcandl on eBay for sending over a picture of the Collector pack odds. The odds are quite different. The pack shows odds for red and blue borders are twice as hard as previous sets. Odds like that should show 4-5 reds and blues per box. However, mrcandl reports that he is pulling about 8 reds and 11 blues per box. This is the same as previous releases, which should make the odds 1:2 or 1:3. The Gold and Autograph odds show the same exact as retail packs, while Printing Plates are very close. Do the odds being wrong on the reds and blues mean the odds are also incorrect on other types? Current Gold border odds indicate production would be double. Some possible good news for collectors is the odds for pulling sketch cards a much easier, and in some cases half of previous sets. Only time will tell based on collectors results if the odds are correct. Hobby odds are also included below. As a reminder Hobby packs/boxes are the same exact as regular Retail packs/boxes, so the odds are the same. Once again there are no designations on the packs or boxes that say they are “Hobby”. Here are the odds on Collector and Hobby/Retail packs.

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Collector Pack Odds

  • Spit (Blue) 1:5
  • Bloody Nose 1:6
  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1,206
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Concert Posters & Album Covers 1:24
  • Shaped Sketch 1:79
  • Dual Artist Panoramic Sketch 1:395
  • Patch Card 1:41

2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands Hobby/Retail Pack Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1,234
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Sketch Card 1:261

Retail Blaster Odds for 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands

Posted on by

Topps has display boxes for the next retail GPK set on display at their booth during this weekend’s New York Comic Con. Thanks to collector, Ke We, for sending over pictures of the boxes. On display were a Collector box, Hobby/Retail box, and Blaster box. Keith was able to get a picture of the side of the Retail Blaster box, where the odds are printed. We can take an early look at the odds for Blaster packs, and how that compares to previous sets.

Early indications are that 2017 Garbage Pail Kids Series 2 Battle of the Bands is printed in much greater quantities than the previous set, GPK Adam-Geddon. Fool’s Gold parallels are almost twice are tough to pull than before. Printing Plates and Artist Autographs also have longer odds compared to the previous release. The good news is both sketch cards and Loaded sketches are slightly easier. Without knowing how the odds look on the other pack types its not possible to tell at this point what qualities have been printed. However, based on how previous sets have been printed it would appear production is up, quite a bit. Easier sketch odds can be attributed to the large number of sketch artists for this set, while the long odds on other insert cards show production is up. We will know for sure soon, as 2017S2 GPK Battle of the Bands is set to release in just under two weeks on Oct. 18th.

2017S2 GPK Retail Blaster Odds

  • Fools Gold 1:98
  • Printing Plate 1:1235
  • Artist Autograph 1:192
  • Sketch 1:262
  • Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:71 (Blaster Boxes)