Tag Archives: Odds

Compared to last year’s article on GPK Chrome 5 production, this year’s article on GPK Chrome 6 will be a walk in the park. Thankfully, Topps has fixed the numerous problems with the odds from last year’s set. C6 is the third GPK Chrome set in the last 53 weeks released by Topps. C5 left a sour taste in collector’s mouths due to not only the famously incorrectly odds, but also the over inflated print run the company decided to produce. While C6 is by no means small, collectors should be happy to know Topps got the memo, and decreased production significantly. Let’s take a look and see just how much 2023 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 6 is out there!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think it’s dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

Chrome 6 makes me happy. Why? Because I don’t have the do the mathematic gymnastics I had to do to figure out the C5 print run. Actually, Topps made it easier than ever by making many of the parallels having the same odds in each product. C6 only has two box types available, and each box has exclusive parallels, so we are easily able to figure out the pack count for each individual box. Let’s take a look at Hobby boxes first.

There are three exclusive numbered parallels inserted into Hobby boxes. Let’s start by taking a look at those.

• Orange borders – 100 cards in set * 75 made per card = 7,500 total Orange borders * 103 odds = 772,500 total Hobby packs
• Black Wave – 100 cards in set * 99 made per card = 9900 total BW borders * 79 odds = 782,100 total Hobby packs
• Red borders – 100 cards in set * 5 made per card = 500 total Red borders * 1,539 odds = 769,500 total Hobby packs

All three of those numbers are very close to each other. I’m going to use the Red Refractor number for the rest of the article, 769,500 Hobby packs! Well look at that, not only is that less than C5, but it’s also less than C4. It’s not dramatically lower, but here’s the first evidence we see that the print run for C6 is less. Now let’s look at the Retail Blaster Production. There are two parallels that are exclusive to Blasters.

• Black borders – 100 cards in set * 99 made per card = 9900 total Black borders * 70 odds = 693,000 total Blaster packs
• Gold borders – 100 cards in set * 50 made per card = 5,000 total Gold borders * 139 odds = 695,000 total Blaster packs

Those numbers are darn close to each other! I’m going to go with the 695,000 number for total C6 Blaster packs. One note on Black and Gold odds. Collectors have found both Black and Gold in Hobby boxes, while it’s been very few so far, it would mean the odds aren’t accurate for those two parallel types. However, I am comfortable using the odds for production numbers because it’s what Topps intended until the pack out process incorrectly seeded some into Hobby packs. Wow! Retail production is down dramatically from C5. Not only is there a huge amount less of Blaster packs from C5,  but there are less Blaster packs than C4, and C3!

For the first time ever we can check our work because Topps used the same odds across both box types for Green, Yellow, Purple, and Prism Refractors. We can use those numbers to figure out total pack production.

• Green borders – 100 cards in set * 299 made per card = 29,900 total Green borders * 49 odds = 1,465,100 total C6 packs
• Yellow borders – 100 cards in set * 275 made per card = 27,500 total yellow borders * 54 odds = 1,485,000 total C6 packs
• Purple borders – 100 cards in set * 250 made per card = 25,000 total Purple borders * 59 odds = 1,475,000 total C6 packs
• Prism – 100 cards in set * 199 made per card = 19,900 total Prisms * 74 odds = 1,472,600 total C6 packs

When you add my numbers above for Hobby and Blaster packs you get 1,464,500, which is very close to all the numbers we just reviewed. As an aside, after reviewing early case breaks the odds appear to be very close to what was released by Topps. I’m very confident we are close on production numbers for C6.

Topps made it too easy this time around. Let’s take a look at how the C6 numbers stack up against previous Chrome sets.

• Total Production
  • Chrome OS 1 – 1,096,370
  • Chrome OS 2 – 513,260
  • Chrome OS 3 – 1,310,000
  • Chrome OS 4 – 1,812,500
  • Chrome OS 5 – 3,225,400
  • Chrome OS 6 – 1,464,500
• Hobby Pack Production
  • Chrome OS 1 – 407,000
  • Chrome OS 2 – 71,500
  • Chrome OS 3 – 560,000
  • Chrome OS 4 – 982,500
  • Chrome OS 5 – 1,050,000
  • Chrome OS 6 – 769,500 or 32,062 boxes or 2,671 cases.
• Retail Pack Production
  • Chrome OS 1 – 689,370
  • Chrome OS 2 – 441,760
  • Chrome OS 3 – 750,000
  • Chrome OS 4 – 830,000
  • Chrome OS 5 – 2,175,400 (1,841,400 Blaster/334,000 Hanger)
  • Chrome OS 6 – 695,000 or 115,833 Blasters or 2,895 Cases

Right away the thing that stands out is how much less, especially Retail Blasters, there are in C6. Total production is down 56%! Hobby production is down 26%! Total Retail production down 68%! Total production and Hobby production is also lower than C4. Retail production comes in lower than C4, and even C3! It’s clear Topps realized how big of a mistake they made with the C5 print run.

Next let’s look at the production for the unnumbered card types in the set. Refractors, Atomic Refractors, C Name, and Color Errors are all unnumbered. Because the odds are the same, or just 1 number off, we can easily figure out how many of each type of these were printed.

• C Name Variation – 1,464,500 total packs / 100 odds = 14,645 total C cards / 50 cards in set = 292 each C Name Variation
• Color Error – 1,464,500 total packs / 147 odds = 9,963 total CE cards / 50 cards in set = 199 each CE card
• Refractors – 1,463,500 total packs / 3 odds  = 488,166 Total Refractors / 100 cards in set = 4,881 each regular Refractor
• Atomic Refractors – 695,000 total Blaster packs / 2 odds = 347,500 total Atomics / 100 cards in set = 3,475 each Atomic Refractor.

As expected the print run for the unnumbered cards are much lower than C5 due to the print run decreased.

Despite all this talk about production being down, there is still a whole lot of this product. C6 is the 7th highest produced modern GPK set behind the last 3 Chrome and last 3 regular Retail releases. Is the lower print run a reflection of less demand for GPK or Topps coming to the realization they can’t get too crazy with print runs? It’s probably a combination of both. Demand seems to have slightly decreased the past 12–18 months from the highs during the pandemic. However, I think this correction has more to do with Topps realizing they over reached with C5. With both Hobby and Retail C5 cases now available for well below factory cost from card dealers, it’s clear Topps was unable to sell what they produced. Topps no longer prints retail sets on demand based on preorders. So it’s a tough job to predict exactly what the demand will be for a set. Let’s hope Topps has learned their lesson from C5, and collectors will continue to see reasonable production runs in the future.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! I feel safe using 3.5 base cards per pack as a good number. About half the hobby packs per box have 3 cards. Many blaster packs seem to have 5 cards. So we are going to use 3.5 base cards per pack.

Base Cards – 1,463,500 total packs * 3.5 base cards per pack = 5,125,750 Total Base Cards produced / 100 cards per set = 51,257 Total of each base card.

Over 50k base sets is a lot, but that’s a far cry from the over 100k C5 sets!!!

GPK Chrome collectors have been in heaven the past year. 2023 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome is the third chrome release in the past 53 weeks. Topps is now back on schedule after multiple delays due to Covid and production issues. This chrome release highlights the original series 6 release from 1986. The base set contains 100 cards. All 88 original cards, 207a/b-250a/b, appear in the set. For an unknown reason, Topps made a name change for card 224a, Monte Zuma. The new card name is Michael Idol. The card backs feature either puzzle pieces for Dyna Mike, or brand new comics done by artist Brent Engstrom. There are also 12 new cards with artworks done by Joe Simko, Joe McWilliams, Brent Engstrom, and David Gross. Once again don’t be confused by the numbering. Topps, in a major error for the second release in a row, decided to continue the numbering for the new art cards, 251a/b-256a/b. This will cause confusion when next year’s Chrome 7 set is released with duplicate numbers. In an interesting twist, one collector has found 16 base cards in his Hobby case that actually had Panini NBA Prizm card backs, instead of the GPK card back. There is no indication yet how common these misprinted backs were inserted into packs.

Collectors chasing Chrome parallels will once again have plenty to search for. All the same parallels found in Chrome 4 & 5, also appear in Chrome 6. According to the odds Topps moved Gold parallels back to being a Blaster exclusive along with Atomic and Black Refractors. However, early breaks have shown collectors not only pulling Gold Refractors, but also Black Refractors from Hobby boxes. This means the odds for Gold and Blacks will be incorrect. Hobby boxes once again have Red, Orange, and Black Wave Refractors exclusive to them. There are 23 Artist Autos to chase in this set. Tom Bunk signed for the 7 characters he painted, James Warhola signed for the 10 characters he painted, and the new art cards also have artist autographs. GPKNews has confirmed the new art cards feature all sticker autos. So far one Warhola auto and one Bunk auto has surfaced, both also have sticker autos. So there’s a chance all autos in the set are stickers. Like with C5, only one card per character has an autograph. Perhaps the biggest surprise was the unannounced Artist Auto Superfractors. All 23 autos also come in a 1/1 signed Superfractor version. Much like C5’s No Blue Ink Error inserts, C6 has Color Error cards. Color Errors are numbered CE-# and feature different color nameplate and banners. There is one CE for each number in the set, 50 total. One note, the Color Errors are much easier to pull than the No Blue Ink errors from C5. Topps also appears to have made an error with the numbers on some of the “C” name cards. All C cards for the new art characters, (251-256), are numbered with their “A” number, instead of the “C” number. This error is also reflected on the checklist Topps released. Collectors will want to be careful they don’t miss these “C” cards when busting packs.

Collectors can breathe a sign of relief as it appears Topps has fixed their biggest issue with C5, the printed odds. Topps released the odds for C6 on their website, and so far based off early case breaks the odds appear to be fairly accurate. Not only that, but based on the odds collectors will find more hits on average when busting boxes compared to C5. This means production is way, way down compared to C5. Based on quick math, posted odds, and early case breaks it’s clear collectors will be a lot happier with C6 than the over printed C5. In fact it looks Ike there are 70% less Blasters and 20% less Hobby boxes than C5. Overall print run is more than 50% less than C5, and even less than C4, just slightly more than C3. A quick note on the odds, Topps listed odds for both EA and SE blasters. They are the same for the higher printed parallels, but the odds are a bit different with many of the tough hits. So what are EA and SE blasters? For years Topps has released two blasters for every GPK release. Years ago the different blasters contained different bonus cards or parallels. However, the past few years there have been no differences in the blasters except one usually has a printed $19.99 price tag. One Blaster type also goes to Target, while Walmart receives the other. I will have a detailed production article in the coming days. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find and where you can find it in 2023 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 6.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set –  (100 Cards).
  • OS 6 207a/b – 250a/b (88 Cards)
  • New Art 251a/b-256a/b (12 Cards)

• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different color border or background pattern.
  • Refractor – 1:3 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Atomic Refractor – 1:2 Blaster (100)
  • Green Refractor /299 – 1:49 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Green Wave Refractor /299 – 1:49 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Yellow Refractor /275 – 1:54 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Yellow Wave Refractor /275 – 1:54 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Purple Refractor /250 – 1:59 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Purple Wave Refractor /250 – 1:59 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Prism Refractor /199 – 1:74 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Prism Aqua Refractor /199 – 1:74 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • X-Fractor /150 – 1:98 Hobby/Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Black Refractor /99 – 1:70 – Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Black Wave Refractor /99 – 1:79 – Hobby (100 Cards)
  • Gold Refractor /50 – 1:139 – Blaster (100 Cards)
  • Rose Gold Refractor /25 –1:588 – EA Blaster Pack, 1:587 – SE Blaster Pack, 1:586 – Hobby (100 Cards)
  • Orange Refractor /75 – 1:103 – Hobby (100 Cards)
  • Red Refractor /5 – 1:1,539 – Hobby (100 Cards)
  • Superfractor 1/1 – 1:13,505 – EA Blaster Pack, 1:14,819 – SE Blaster Pack, 1:14,767 – Hobby (100 Cards)
  • Printing Plates –1:3,602 – EA Blaster Pack, 1:3,644 – SE Blaster Pack, 1:3,656 – Hobby (100 Cards) (400 Total Plates – 4 per character)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • C Name Variations – 1:101 Hobby, 1:100 Blaster (50 Cards)
  • Color Error Short Print – 1:147 Hobby/Blaster (50 Cards)
  • Artist Autograph /50 –1:1,257 – EA Blaster Pack, 1:1,256 – SE Blaster Pack, 1:1,254 – Hobby  (23 Cards – 212a, 213a, 214a, 215a, 216a, 218a, 223a, 231a, 232a, 233a, 241a, 242a, 243a, 244a, 245a, 246a, 248a, 251a, 252a, 253a, 254a, 255a, and 256a)
  • Artist Autograph Superfractor 1/1 –1:54,020 – EA Blaster Pack, 1:63,497 – SE Blaster Pack, 1:61,526 – Hobby  (23 Cards – 212a, 213a, 214a, 215a, 216a, 218a, 223a, 231a, 232a, 233a, 241a, 242a, 243a, 244a, 245a, 246a, 248a, 251a, 252a, 253a, 254a, 255a, and 256a)

2023 Garage Pail Kids Chrome OS 6 are beginning to show up in the wild. Topps today posted the odds for both Hobby and Retail Blasters on their website. Topps begin earlier this year posting odds on their website for products, and no longer putting the odds on packs. This is the first time GPK odds have appeared on their website. There are a few surprises with the odds. Some new cards are making their debut. Color Errors are cards that appear to have a different color banner and nameplate and are numbered CE-#. There appears to be a CE card for each “A” name in the set. These are similar to the No Blue Error cards from C5, but based on the odds are much easier to pull this set. Also there are new 1/1 Superfractor Artist Autos in the set! We also now know regular artist autos are numbered /50. The official checklist hasn’t been released, so we aren’t sure how many autos appear in the set. Odds for both Blaster types are slightly different when it comes to the bigger hits in the product. EA Blasters appear to have slightly easier odds than SE Blasters. The big news here is it appears Topps learned their lesson and have corrected the massively incorrect odds from Chrome 5. If the odds show to be correct on cases breaks, it would appear there is a lot less Chrome 6 packs compared to the past couple of chrome releases. After Chrome 5 was heavily printed, it appears there is a fraction of retail C6 packs compared to C5. Hobby packs also appear to be slightly less than C4. Total production appears to be closer to C3 numbers. Much, much less than C5. I will have a detailed article on production in the coming days. Check out the odds for 2023 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 6 below, or click here for the PDF of the odds from Topps.

2023 GPK Chrome OS 6 Pack Odds

• Refractor 1:3(Hobby/Blaster)
• Atomic Refractor 1:2 (Blaster)
• Green Refractor 1:49 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Green Wave Refractor 1:49 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Yellow Refractor 1:54 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Yellow Wave Refractor 1:54 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Purple Refractor 1:59 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Purple Wave Refractor 1:59 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Prism Refractor 1:74 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Prism Aqua Refractor 1:74 (Hobby/Blaster)
• X-Fractor 1:98 (Hobby/Blaster)
• Black Refractor 1:70 (Blaster)
• Black Wave Refractor 1:79 (Hobby)
• Orange Refractor 1:103 (Hobby)
• Gold Refractor 1:139 (Blaster)
• Rose Gold Refractor 1:586 (Hobby) 1:587 & 1:588 (Blaster)
• Red Refractor 1:1,539 (Hobby)
• Superfractor 1:14,767 (Hobby) 1:13,505 & 1:14,819 (Blaster)
• Printing Plate 1:3,656 (Hobby) 1:3,602 & 1:3,644 (Blaster)
• Artist Autograph 1:1,254 (Hobby) 1:1,257 & 1:1,256 (Blaster)
• Superfractor Artist Autograph 1:61,526 (Hobby) & 1:54,020 & 1:63,497 (Blaster)
• C Name Variation 1:101 (Hobby 1:100 (Blaster)
• Color Error 1:147 (Hobby/Blaster)