Chrome 7 is a huge set. The structure of this release is unmatched in GPK history. Topps completely revamped the parallel structure, added multiple insert sets, and added multiple parallels for all inserts and autographs. There are more odds than any set in GPK history. What are the chances Topps got those odds right? Believe it or not, turns out, pretty good. Much like Chrome 6, Chrome 7 odds look to be fairly accurate. Not only does the math work out for the listed odds, but based on case break results the odds seem to be close. Let’s take a look at the numbers and find out just how much 2024 Garbage Pail Chrome was produced.
First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think it’s dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)
Much like with Chrome 6, Topps is making it really easy for us to figure out production numbers. Because there are exclusive insert sets for both Hobby and Retail, and those inserts have numbered parallels, we can easily figure out the pack production for each. Let’s take a look at Hobby production first. You can use any of the insert parallels, I choose four random ones.
- C Cards Red Parallel – 50 cards in set * 5 made per card = 250 total C Reds * 3,142 odds = 785.500 total Hobby packs
- Krashers Aqua – 20 cards in set * 199 made per card = 3,989 total Krashers Aqua * 199 odds = 792,020 total Hobby packs
- Krashers Orange – 20 cards in set * 25 made per card = 500 total Krashers Orange * 1,575 odds = 787,500 total Hobby packs
- WATN Gold – 42 cards in set * 50 made per card = 2,100 total WATN Gold * 376 odds = 789,600 total Hobby packs
As you can see all four of those are all in the same ballpark. Why the differences? Topps rounds up with their odds, as you will see in better detail later in the article. I’m going to go with 790,000 Hobby packs for our number going forward. Something that’s in the middle and a good round number. Now let’s look at Retail Blasters. Again we can use any of the insert parallels. I picked four random ones.
- Rory Green Parallels – 42 cards in set * 99 made per card = 4,158 total Rory Greens * 198 odds = 823,284 total Blaster packs
- Rory Red – 42 cards in set * 5 made per card = 210 total Rory Reds * 3,913 odds = 822,730 total Blaster packs
- Contest Gold – 26 cards in set * 50 made per card = 1,300 total Contest Golds * 632 odds = 821,600 total Blaster packs
- Music Orange – 54 cards in set * 25 made per card = 1,360 total Music Orange * 608 odds = 820,800 total Blaster packs
Again like with the Hobby numbers, those four are all very similar. I’m going to go with 822,000 total Retail Blaster packs. That’s going to put total production a little ahead of Chrome 6, but not quite as high as Chrome 4. Both Hobby and Retail production is up slightly over Chrome 6. Now we can also check our work to see if we are close. The Auto parallels have the same odds listed for both hobby and retail. Therefore, we can use one of those to get a total production number.
- Rory Auto Gold – 42 cards in set * 50 made per card = 2100 total Rory Auto Golds * 770 odds = 1,617,000 total C7 packs
When you add my numbers above for hobby and retail you get 1,612,000. That sure is close to the Rory Auto Gold numbers. I’m confident we are really close to how many C7 packs were produced.
Let’s take a look at how Chrome 7 production compares to previous chrome releases.
- Total Production
- Chrome OS 1 – 1,096,370
- Chrome OS 2 – 513,260
- Chrome OS 3 – 1,310,000
- Chrome OS 4 – 1,812,500
- Chrome OS 5 – 3,225,400
- Chrome OS 6 – 1,464,500
- Chrome OS 7 – 1,612,000
- Hobby Pack Production
- Chrome OS 1 – 407,000
- Chrome OS 2 – 71,500
- Chrome OS 3 – 560,000
- Chrome OS 4 – 982,500
- Chrome OS 5 – 1,050,000
- Chrome OS 6 – 769,500
- Chrome OS 7 – 790,000 or 32,916 boxes or 2,743 cases.
- Retail Pack Production
- Chrome OS 1 – 689,370
- Chrome OS 2 – 441,760
- Chrome OS 3 – 750,000
- Chrome OS 4 – 830,000
- Chrome OS 5 – 2,175,400 (1,841,400 Blaster/334,000 Hanger)
- Chrome OS 6 – 695,000
- Chrome OS 7 – 822,000 or 117,428 boxes or 2,935 cases.
It looks like Tooos has decided this is the sweet spot for GPK Chrome production. Overall numbers are similar to Chrome 4 & 6. Chrome 7 is the third highest produced GPK Chrome set. However, it falls behind most of the regular retail releases from the past few years.
There are a number of unnumbered parallels and inserts in this year’s set. Because we have production numbers for each we can easily figure out how many of each parallel and insert there are. Let’s look at the unnumbered parallels first.
- Refractors – (790,000 Hobby packs / 3 odds = 263,333) + (822,000 Blaster packs / 2 odds = 411,000) = 674,333 Total Refractors / 100 cards in set = 6,473 each regular Refractor
- Drool Refractors – 822,000 total Blaster packs / 2 odds = 412,000 total Drool / 100 cards in set = 4,120 each Drool Refractor.
- Prism Refractor – 790,000 Hobby packs / 3 odds = 263,333 total Prisms / 100 in set = 2,633 each Prism Refractor
- Negative Refractor – 790,000 Hobby packs / 4 odds = 197,500 total Negative / 100 in set = 1,975 each Negative Refractor
- Magenta Refractor – 790,000 Hobby packs / 6 odds = 131,666 total Magenta / 100 in set = 1,316 each Magenta Refractor
- Purple Refractor – 790,000 Hobby packs / 7 odds = 112,857 total Purple / 100 in set = 1,128 each Purple Refractor
As expected there are a lot of each unnumbered parallel card. However, in actuality there are more than what the odds tell us. Earlier I mentioned Topps looks to round up on every odd. No matter how small the decimal is, they still round up. Based on real life breaks we see the biggest differences in the Drool, Regular Refractor, and Negative. Let’s take a look at Drool Refractors. The sell sheet advertised 6 per Blaster, and that’s what we are seeing. Those odds would be 1:1.17 packs. Well, Topps rounded up to 1:2. I don’t know why they are ignoring the math rules of rounding, but they are. So if we rework the Drool numbers using 6 per box we get.
- Drool Refractors 117,428 Blaster boxes * 6 per box = 704,569 total Drool refractors / 100 in set = 7,045 of each Drool Refracfor
Wow! That’s a different of nearly 3000 more each card, just because of Topps poor rounding math. There are also a significant higher amount of Regular Refractors and Negative Refractors because of these same rounding mistakes by Topps. So keep that in mind we looking at the parallel production numbers.
Now let’s take a look at all the various insert card in Chrome 7
- C Name Card – 790,000 Hobby packs / 25 odds = 31,600 total C cards / 50 cards in set = 632 each C Name Card
- Krashers – 790,000 Hobby packs / 61 odds = 12,950 total Krashers / 20 cards in set = 647 each Krashers
- WATN – 790,000 Hobby packs / 37 odds = 21,253 total WATN / 42 cards in set = 506 each WATN
- Remember – 790,000 Hobby packs / 577 odds = 1,369 total Remember / 10 cards in set = 136 each Remember the Name
- Contest – 822,000 Blaster packs / 4 odds = 205,500 total Contest / 26 in set = 7,903 each Contest card
- Rory – 822,000 Blaster packs / 2 odds = 411,000 total Rory cards / 42 in set = 9,785 each Rory card
- Music – 822,000 Blaster packs / 7 odds = 117,428 total Music cards / 54 in set = 2,174 each Music card
As expected easy odds on the Blaster inserts means there are a lot of them out there. However the considerably harder odds on the Hobby inserts will made those sets much tougher to put together. Next let’s look at the Artist Autograph cards. Because the odds are nearly identical across both pack types we can determine how many of each base auto there is.
- New Art Auto –1,612,000 total packs / 911 odds = 1,769 total NA Autos / 8 cards in set = 221 each New Art Auto
- Rory Auto – 1,612,000 total packs / 341 odds = 4,727 total Rory autos / 42 in set = 112 each Rory Auto
Wow! That’s lot of autos! Imagine the hand cramps Rory had signing all those cards! These numbers are also confirmed by the artists. Rory said he signed 100 of each base auto, while the new art artists signed 225 of each base auto. Chrome 7 autos are the highest produced in any chrome set to date. But they probably had to do this because for some reason they didn’t have any OS artists sign cards for the set.
Chrome 7 is a heavily produced set. It’s clear Topps believes there is a demand for this amount of product. That remains to be seen as Chrome, 4, 5, and 6 have seen deep, deep discounts since their release. Unopened product from those releases are selling for below cost. With the drastic change in set structure for Chrome 7 it will be interesting to see if prices hold strong longer, or if it will suffer the same fate as previous Chrome releases.
Finally, let’s take a look at base card production. There are a greater amount of parallels and inserts in this Chrome set than ever before. Because of that, each pack has less base cards on average. Let’s look how that compares to previous releases. Based on real life Hobby case breaks, Hobby boxes are averaging 2.15 base cards per pack. Meanwhile, Blaster packs are seeing most packs with either 2 or 3 base card. So we will use 2.5 base cards per Blister pack.
- Base Cards – (790,000 Hobby packs * 2.15 base per pack = 1,698,500 base cards) + (822,000 Blaster packs * 2.5 base per pack = 2,055,000 base cards) = 3,753,500 / 100 in set = 37,535 of each base card.
Yes 37k base sets is a lot of sets, but this is one of the smallest base sets produced in years. Half the number of Chrome 4 base cards, a third of Chrome 5, even less than Chrome 3 base sets! Add in tons of inserts and parallels and you get less base cards!