Category Archives: Odds

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2020S1 GPK Late to School. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2020S1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

• Total Production – 670,000 Packs
• Collector – 74,000 Collector Packs or about 3,083 Hobby Boxes or about 385 Collector Cases
• Blaster – 252,000 Blaster Packs or 50,400 Blaster boxes or 1,220 Blaster Cases
• Retail Display/Fat Packs – 344,000

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figure it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Blue /99, Red /75, and Gold /50 for the parallels, and Relics /100 and Autos /35! One important note, for this set Topps has raised the print run on the artist autographs. They are now /35, previously they were /25.

Unlike the previous series, 2019S2 Revenge, we can’t quite figure out everything. We were unable to figure out Retail Display and Fat Pack production. That means we won’t be able to figure out Green or Purple parallels this time.

First let’s figure out production for the various parallels.

• Black Borders – 74,000 Collector packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 74,000 total Blacklight cards / 200 cards in set = 370 per card.
• Yellow Borders – 252,000 Retail Display packs / 5 Odds = 50,400 total Yellow borders / 200 cards in set = 252 per card

Let’s take a look at these numbers compared to previous series. Not surprisingly Black borders are slightly higher. This is because production is also slightly higher on Collector boxes. The number that stands right out is the Yellow borders. Topps moved the Yellows to Blasters this time. Blasters are produced much higher than Retail Display boxes. This means the print run of the Yellows is far higher than in the past. Last series 2019S2 was only 30 per card. This series we are up around 250 per. Should be much easier to find the Yellow border you are looking for. Finally, because we don’t have Fat Pack and Retail display numbers broken out, we are unable to determine Green and Purple borders this time. You can assume the production is similar on the Greens compared too 2019S2. However, the Purples will be about 1/2 of what 2019S2 had. If you remember, Topps messed up and included 2 purple per Fat pack last release. This series was back to 1 per fat pack, so assume purples are about 1/2 of last series.

Now let’s take a look at the various insert sets.

• Wacky Package Parodies – 74,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 3,084 total Wacky Package Parodies / 10 cards in set = 308 per card
• Class Superlatives – 50,400 Blaster Boxes * 3 per box = 151,200 total Class Superlatives / 10 cards in set = 15,120 per card
• Lunchboxes – 3,084 Collector boxes / 1 odds – 3,083 total Lunchboxes
  • We know Green & Purple are 1/4 of total = 771 lunchboxes. We also know Orange is 1/2 of Purple/Green = 385. Meanwhile Blue are 1.5 times of Purple/Green = 1157

Wacky Package Parodies are very close in production to the Collector box insert of the 2019S2 set. This is because there are 10 cards in the set, compared to 9 last time. Class Superlatives also comes in very close to the insert set from Blaster boxes in 2019S2. We are unable to determine the print run for the GPK Mascots or Faculty Lounge because we weren’t able to break down the pack production of Retail Display and Fat Packs. The lunchboxes are interesting. Every case I saw was packed the same, 3 blues, 2 purples, 2 greens, and 1 orange. Not sure why Topps decided to short print the Orange ones. But those will be tougher to locate as collectors are realizing.

One thing I like taking a look at each set is where all the printing plates are hiding. Historically, retail has the majority of the printing plates because it accounts for over 80% of the print run. We know Topps inserted 400 plates into production. Here is the breakdown of how many can be found in each pack type.

• Collector Plates – 74,000 packs / 531 odds = 139 plates in Collector packs
• Blaster Plates – 252,000 packs / 2,295 odds = 109 plates in Blaster packs

Once again if you want a plate Collector packs are the easiest option. Although a large amount of plates are in retail packs, you just have to open a bunch. Because we can’t breakdown Fat Pack and Retail Display pack numbers were can’t double check out pack totals. But once again the numbers for plates will be very similar to 2019S2.

The bottom line is this, the last two retail sets have been hugely successful for Topps. It couldn’t come at a better time. 2020 will be a year long 35th anniversary celebration, with the year ending with the 35 anniversary set. There will be ample licensed merchandise items debuting from new and old companies alike. Topps stands to make more money off of GPK in 2020 that they have in many, many years.

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 or 7 base cards per pack now, except for packs containing patches, but that number is so small we will go with 6. Retail/Hobby packs 7 base cards per pack this time around, except for packs containing gold dust, autos, sketches, and plates, but again that number is so small I’m going to go with 7 per pack.

Base Cards – (74,000 Collector packs X 6 cards per pack) + (596,000 Retail packs X 7 cards per pack) = 4,616,000 Total Base Cards produced / 200 cards per set = 23,080 Total of each base card.

Not quite as high as the 25,000+ sets from 2019S2, but still a lot of base cards out there! Collectors will have no problem putting this set in their collections!

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2020S1 GPK Late to School. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. Part 2 will be posting soon.

After two years of of sets based off of real people, Topps decided to change things up with 2020S1 GPK Late to School. Sales have been steadily increasing set by set with GPK. In fact 2019S2 was the highest produced GPK set in years. GPK collectors love their horror cards, and that showed with their purchasing power of 2019S2. so how would Topps keep collectors interested? Bring back card back art! Checklists, puzzles, and new card back art all make a return. The elimination of the frustrating subsets also was a collector plus. Was that enough to keep collectors buying GPKs? Distributors thought so, as Late to School’s production rivals that of 2019S2 Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Let’s take a look at just how many cards made.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

As always we need to start by determining how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we need a card type where the odds are exactly the same in all pack types. One thing where 2020S1 Late to School is very similar to 2019S2 Revenge is the pack structure. This will make the method to figuring out production almost identical to 2019S2. Once again Topps has overstated parallels by double. Why Topps does this, I have no idea. But all parallels, reds, blues, yellows, golds, etc. are actually being pulled at 1/2 the rate stated on packs. Going forward, in this article I will be using 1/2 of the stated odds on packs for parallels. Another consistency from 2019S2 is Jumbo odds are 1/3 the odds on retail packs. So once again I will be counting a Fat Pack as 3 packs for our calculations.

Gold borders this time are set at 1:134 packs in Collector, Retail, and Blaster packs, and 1:45 in Fat packs. Since the odds are overstated by double I’m going to use 1:67 as the more realistic odds. There are 200 base cards in the set, and Gold borders are /50 on the back. Therefore, 200 X 50 number of golds per card = 10,000 total Gold borders X 67 odds = 670,000 total packs made for release. That’s a lot of packs once again. It puts Late to School just under total pack production compared to 2019S2.

How can we be sure 670,000 is the right number? It’s hard because Topps no longer has any other card types with similar odds across the packs. Instead let’s try to reverse check our number and see if it makes sense. Let’s try to figure out how many of each pack type there are. Collector packs are always easy. There are a lot of card types only found in Collector packs. Relics, Red borders, and Blue borders are all things we can use. Let’s look at the math on those:

• Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 100 made per card = 1000 total patches x 74 odds = 74,000 Collector packs made
• Bloody Red borders – 200 cards in set X 75 made per card = 15,000 total Red borders X 5 odds = 75,000 Collector packs made
• Spit Blue borders – 200 cards in set X 99 made per card = 19,800 total Blue borders X 4 odds = 79,200 Collector packs made

Once again Collector boxes are pretty easy to figure out. Sure the blue borders show a few more packs, but quite often the odds are rounded and not exact. That could account for some of the differences. It looks like it’s safe to assume 74,000 Collector packs were made. This shows Collector pack production is even up over 2019S2 Revenge! It’s not surprising, the lunchboxes that were included with each Collector were a big hit.

How about other pack types? In order to determine how many different types of retail packs were made we would need a card type that is only in one type of retail pack, and we know how many were made. The past couple of releases I used Loaded and Panoramic sketch numbers. Sadly, this isn’t possible this set. Topps were suppose to move Panoramic sketches to Value Box packs. However, pano sketches actually were inserted into Collector boxes. This left Fat packs and Retail display packs with no special cards that we know the print run of. Therefore, we are unable to break down the retail production this time. However, we can figure out how many Value Box packs, since Loaded sketches appear in those, and we know how many artists there were. We know there were 44 artists that completed sketches for this set. While the official Topps checklist shows only 41, there were 44 that confirmed to GPKNews they did sketches. Some of these sketches have started showing up on eBay. So we will assume the Topps checklist is incorrect.

• Loaded sketches – 44 artists * 5 sketches each = 220 total Loaded sketches * 229 odds per box = 50,380 Blaster boxes * 5 packs per box = 251,900 blaster packs

That pack number makes alot of sense given total production is down just a bit compared to the 2019S1 release. While that number won’t help us in this article, we will use it in part two to figure yellow border production numbers. We are going to go with a total production pack run of 670,000.

We know there are 74,000 Collector packs. If total packs are 670,000 – 74,000 Collector packs = 596,000 retail packs. Let’s take it even further. 596,000 retail packs – 252,000 blaster packs = 344,000 Fat packs/Retail Display packs. We can’t break down the difference between Fat Packs and Retail Display packs. However, I think its safe to assume the numbers are very similar to 2019S2, just slightly lower. However, without any actual numbers to go off of we won’t be able to figure out that information. However, let’s look at regular sketches. 44 artists + 36 regular sketches = 1,584 total sketches * 371 odds across retail – 587,664. That’s very close to the 596,000 number we came up with for retail packs. I believe our total pack numbers are very close.

What do the numbers tell us? Garbage Pail Kids continue to see a popularity they haven’t seen in years. Topps has been working overtime to print these sets. Once again this set has huge production.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Late to School:

• Total Production – 670,000 Packs
• Collector – 74,000 Collector Packs or about 3,083 Hobby Boxes or about 385 Collector Cases
• Blaster – 252,000 Blaster Packs or 50,400 Blaster boxes or 1,220 Blaster Cases
• Fat Packs/Retail Display Packs – 344,000

Production is down, but it’s not by a lot. After the hugely successful 2019S2 set, retail partners have continued to order GPK product. There are also more than just Target stores carrying the product. Multiple national outlets carry GPK now. Let’s look at how production compares to other recent sets.

• Total Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s – 439,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 440,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 473,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 748,000
  • Late to School – 670,000 (11% decrease in production vs. Revenge)
• Collector Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s – 39,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 60,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 50,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 69,000
  • Late to School – 74,000 (7% increase in production vs. Revenge)
• Retail Pack Production
  • We Hate the 80’s (Includes Hobby packs) – 393,000
  • Oh the Horror-ible – 380,000
  • We Hate the 90’s – 423,000
  • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 679,000
  • Late to School – 596,000 (12% decrease in production vs. Revenge)

Once again production is very high for 2020S1 Late to School. There is a decrease from 2019S2, but in the grand scheme of things this is still the second highest produced set in years. The numbers are just over that of the 30th anniversary set. Once again collectors are going to be frustrated when looking for hits like sketches, plates, and autos. They will be very hard to come by once again. However, the expansion into multiple retail outlets shows promise for 2020. This sets Topps up nicely for the 35th anniversary celebration planned the entire year. Sure we won’t get the 35th set until late this year. However, Chrome is scheduled to come sometime this summer. It will be interesting to see how the recent popularity of GPK will affect ordering from retail partners for chrome.

This practice is always a lot of fun to look at. Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

Update #2: Article updated to add Walmart.com promo card.

Update: Thanks to Clint Coleman for confirming Triptych sketches are being pulled from Value boxes. It would appear Topps switched the Panos and the Triptych sketches.

After just a short 4 month break, Topps is back with their latest retail set 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. Change is the key word with the newest GPK set from Topps. First off, the subject matter is entirely new and not based off of real people. This breaks with the prior two years of retail sets. After years of complaints from collectors, Topps is finally starting to listen. Gone are the subsets that started with the 30th anniversary set in 2015. The base set is 200 total base cards, all numbered on the front 1a/b-100a/b. Card back art also finally returns! Card backs feature puzzle pieces, GPK Report Cards and checklists. All these are welcome changes for collectors and things they have been asking for. While there are changes, the basic formula is very similar to the previous set, 2019S2 Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Based on odds, production is very high once again, just down slightly from 2019S2. Once again Topps has overstated the odds on parallels by double.

Topps did make a couple of tweaks to the product. Topps increased the print run on the artist autographs. They are all out of /35 now. Pano sketches were suppose to move to Value Box packs. However, collectors busting packs are finding them in Collector boxes.  None have surface from Value packs despite showing up on the sell sheet and pack odds. GPKNews has reached out to Topps for comment on the Pano sketches. This article will be updated if they respond. In another possible interesting update Triptych sketches have not surfaced in any pack type as of this writing. They should be in Collector boxes. Finally, while sketch artist numbers are down, the official Topps checklist is missing three artists who completed sketches for the set. The total sketch artists should be 44.

I will have articles in the coming days looking at production numbers in more detail. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

• Base Set – 100a/b (200 Cards).
• Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
  • Bruised Black Border (Black)) – 1:1 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Spit Blue Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:8 – Collector (200 Cards)
  • Blood Nose Red Border (Red) /75 – 1:10– Collector (200 Cards)
  • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:134 – Retail Display/Value, 1:134 – Collector, 1:45 Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Booger Green Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail (200 Cards)
  • Jelly Purple Border (Purple) – 1:1 – Fat Packs (200 Cards)
  • Phlegm Yellow Border (Yellow) – 1:10 – Value Box Packs (200 Cards)
  • Printing Plates – 1:531 Collector, 1:2,295 Value, 1:2,318 Retail Display, 1:758 Fat Packs (400 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)

• Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
  • Walmart Promo Card – 1 Per Walmart.com Value Box (1 Card)
  • Wacky Package Parodies – 1:24 – Collector (10 cards)
  • GPK Faculty Lounge – 2 Per Fat Pack (10a/b – 20 Cards)
  • GPK Mascots – 1:3 – Retail Display (5a/b – 10 Cards))
  • Class Superlatives – 3 Per Value Box (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
  • School Pennant Patch Cards /100 – 1:74 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
  • Collectible Lunchbox – 1 Per Collector Box (4 Total Lunchboxes)
  • Artist Autograph /35 – 1:61 Collector, 1:260 Retail Display, 1:259 Value, 1:87 Fat Packs (100 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
  • Sketch Card – 1:371 Retail Display/Value, 1:124 Fat Packs (44 Artists)
  • Shaped Sketch – 1:122 – Collector (44 Artists)
  • Triptych Sketch – 1:723 (Actually being found in Value box packs.) – Collector (44 Artists)
  • Loaded Sketch – 1:229 – Value Box (44 Artists)
  • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:4,519 – Value (Actually being found in Collector packs.) (44 Artists)

While the official release date is still a couple of days away, that hasn’t stopped boxes from being shipped from distributors for 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. Today we are able to share with you Collector box odds. The odds tell a similar story with Retail. Production appears to be quite high once again. Also, as has been Topps’ tradition the odds on the parallels are overstated by double. Keep in mind parallels are actually falling at twice the rate posted on packs. Collector boxes are packages in a  regular box and plastic wrap, making the lunchboxes a blind box of sorts. I’ll have much more on that and production numbers in upcoming articles. Here are the Collector pack odds.

2020S1 GPK Late to School Collector Pack Odds

• Spit Blue 1:8
• Blood Nose Red 1:10
• Fool’s Gold 1:134
• Printing Plate 1:531
• Artist Autograph 1:61
• Wacky Package Parody 1:24
• School Pennant Patch 1:74
• Shaped Sketch 1:122
• Tryptych Sketch 1:723

Updated 1/20 – Article updated to add Fat Pack and Retail Display Odds.

We are just under one week away from the official release date of 2020 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Late To School. That isn’t stopping stores from releasing the product early. Thanks to collectors Eric Benton and Aaron Seidel for sending along pictures and info. These collectors found Value boxes at Meijer stores today. This is the first time Meijer has beaten Target to the punch. Topps has returned to the previous naming convention for the parallels as Fool’s Gold and Phlegm Yellow are back after the blood splatter from 2019S2. It appears once again the odds on the parallels are overstated by double. It’s still early, but each Value box has 1 yellow border card which makes them 1:5, not 1:10 as stated. It wouldn’t surprise me to see all the parallels odds this same way as has been the case the last few GPK series from Topps. A quick look at the odds reveals some hits are slightly easier this time. Both Printing Plates and Artist Autos are a little easier to pull. Initially it looks like production might be slightly lower than 2019S2, but still higher than any previous series in years. Meanwhile sketch cards have even longer odds than 2019S2. Pano sketches and Loaded sketches will be very hard to come by once again. This is attributed to the lower number of sketch artists on this set.

I’ll have my usual rundown of the production numbers in the coming days once all pack odds are in. In the meantime here are the odds for all retail pack types of 2020S1 GPK Late to School.

2020S1 GPK Late to School Value Pack/Box Odds

• Phlegm Yellow 1:10
• Fool’s Gold 1:134
• Printing Plate 1:2,295
• Artist Autograph 1:259
• Regular Sketch 1:371
• Panoramic Sketch 1:4,519
• Loaded Puzzle Sketch 1:229 (Value Boxes)

2020S1 GPK Late to School Fat Pack Retail Odds

• Fool’s Gold 1:45
• Printing Plate 1:758
• Artist Autograph 1:87
• Regular Sketch 1:124

2020S1 GPK Late to School Retail Display Odds

• Fool’s Gold 1:134
• Printing Plate 1:2,318
• Artist Autograph 1:260
• GPK Mascots 1:3
• Regular Sketch 1:371

We are now a little over two weeks away from the release of the next retail set 2020S1 Garbage Pail Kids Late to School. Topps was nice enough to share an image with GPKNews of the Value Box art for the upcoming set. In keeping with the recent tradition of themed boxes, the box is shaped like a school house. The front of the box features artwork of a very frustrated looking principal done by artist David Gross.

Some other observations based on the odds on the side of the box. They odds are difficult to see in the picture, and they could just be a mock-up. But if real the odds look to be similar to the previous set, 2019S2 Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible. Loaded sketches look to be tougher to pull. Autos looks to be slightly easier. Pano sketches and Phlegm yellow borders are indeed in the Value boxes this set as advertised on the sell sheet. A lot of this makes sense. Less artists this set means sketches will be tougher to pull. Topps also increased the print run on the autos to /35 with this release, therefore making autos slightly easier to pull. Much more on the odds when the packs start to be released.