How Many 2021S1 GPK Food Fight Were Produced? Part 2

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2021S1 GPK Food Fight. If you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

In the first post we looked at how many packs/boxes/cases were produced of 2021S1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. Here’s a review of what we came up with.

  • Total Production – 1,790,000 Packs
  • Collector –225,000 Collector Packs or about 9,375 Collector Boxes or about 1,171 Collector Cases
  • Total Retail – 1,564,000 Packs
  • Retail Display – 356,000 Retail Display Packs or about 14,833 RD Boxes or about 1,854 RD Cases

I’ll be using these numbers to try to come up with an idea how many of each type of parallel and insert were created for the set. This will give you a good idea how rare a set is and how quickly you need to snap up that card for your rainbow! I’ll also compare some of this info to the previous sets for reference. As a reminder, in addition to using the sell sheet and odds, we will also have to make some assumptions and flat out guesses when trying to figure some of these out.

So how many of each type of card was made? We can’t figure it out for every type of insert or parallel. Some card types we don’t have enough information. Other times however, Topps is nice enough to tell us exactly how many of a card was produced. Like previous sets, Topps has continued to number many card types. This means we already know most of the parallel and insert numbers already! Makes this post a lot easier! We know Blue /99, Red /75, and Gold /50 for the parallels, and Relics /199 and Autos /80. There were a few changes in this set, compared to the 35th set. Auto print runs are significantly higher, Golds moved back to /50, while Patches are slightly less.

First let’s figure out production for a couple parallels.

  • Black Borders – 225,000 Collector packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 225,000 total Black borders / 200 cards in set = 1,125 per card.
  • Green Borders – 1,564,000 Retail packs / 1 Odds (doh) = 1,564,000 total Green borders / 200 cards in set = 7,840 per card.

A lot to discuss with the the parallels. First off, because we are unable to break out Blaster and Fat Pack production numbers, we are unable to figure out Yellow and Purple print runs for this set. It’s safe to assume the print runs are approximately the same percent higher than their 35th counterparts as the packs are. Likewise, the Green numbers above aren’t as accurate as I would like, because we don’t have Fat Pack production. Again, Fat Packs are being counted as 3 packs, but each fat pack comes with only 2 green parallels. The actual number is slightly less, but you get the idea, there are a ton of each green border out there. Black parallels are also much higher due to the increased Collector print run.

Now let’s take a look at the various insert sets.

  • GPK Wacky Package – 225,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 9,375 total GPK Wacky Package / 10 cards in set = 937 per card
  • Magnet Cards – 225,000 Collector packs / 24 odds = 9,375 total Magnets / 12 cards in set = 781 per card
  • You Are What You Eat – 356,000 Retail Display Packs / 3 odds = 118,666 total YAWYE / 10 cards in set = 11,866 per card
  • Large Fridge Tins – 9,375 Collector Cases = 9,375 Large Fridge Tins

The first insert we should talk about are the GPK Wacky Packages. According to the odds above, there should be well over 900 of each card. However, based on the breaks that have been observed, the GPK Wacky’s are only falling in approx 15% of Collector boxes. If this holds true,  and the remaining Wackys never surface, it’s reasonable to think there are only 140-150 of each GPK Wacky actually out there. Also, like with the parallels above, because we are unable to break out the production numbers for Blasters and Fat Packs, we are unable to determine how many Cereal Aisle and Celebrity Chef inserts were made.

The numbers we are able to figure out all tell the same story, parallels and inserts are up considerably because production is up. Another interesting thing to look at is the distribution of the “hits” in the various pack types. Just by looking at the retail odds, it’s clear the odds for “hits” are higher than they have ever been, much higher than any other set. Why is this? Topps increased production on Collector boxes, and each box is guaranteed a hit. With Parches actually being less this set, and only a few more sketches, Topps has to move a large percent of autos and plates to Collector boxes. Not only were they moved, but auto print run had to be raised to /80 to accommodate the hits. Collectors will notice the majority of hits from a Collector case will be autos. Just how many plates and autos are in Collector vs. Retail packs?

  • Collector packs 225,000 / 40 auto odds = 5,625 autos in Collector packs
  • 200 base cards * 80 autos per card = 16,000 total autos – 5,625 autos in Collector = 10,375 autos in retail
  • Collector packs 225,000 / 796 Plate odds = 282 plates in collector packs
  • 400 total plates – 282 in collector packs = 118 in retail packs

There are about 35% of the autos and a whopping 70% of printing plates in Collector Packs. That’s a lot when you consider Collector packs only make up 12% of the total production run. So if you are wondering why the odds are so long in retail packs, you can blame Collector Boxes for the results.

The bottom line is once again, Garbage Pail Kids are seeing huge production increases into 2021. GPKs are not immune to the huge increases in demand for card collectibles since the Covid-19 pandemic started. Not only has there been an increase of new collectors, but the large influx of sport card sellers looking to capitalize on the current GPK demand is causing numbers to sights unseen in decades. The question now is how high can the demand go? Will we see continued increases with sets later in 2021?

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! We know Collector packs have 6 or 7 base cards per pack, except for packs containing a patch card. Retail packs also have 6 or 7 base cards per pack. We will go with 7 for each pack. While we can’t break out Fat Packs this series, the less base cards even themselves with Collector and Retail packs that have 6 cards.

Base Cards – 1,790,000 total packs produced * 7 per pack = 12,530,000 Total Base Cards produced / 200 cards per set = 62,650 Total of each base card.

Over 12 million base cards printed!! We’ve hit 8 digits! Once again, by far the highest produced set since Topps has been supplying odds for packs. While I have no way of knowing for sure, I suspect these numbers are only surpassed by OS print numbers. How high can they go?

This is Part 2 of a two part series on the production of 2021S1 GPK Food FightIf you missed Part 1 you can go here to catch up.

How Many 2021S1 GPK Food Fight Cards Were Produced? Part 1

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. Part 2 will be posting soon.

The last four months have been a whirlwind for Garbage Pail Kids collectors. Popularity of card collectibles, including GPKs, have been at sights unseen in years. Four months ago the 35th anniversary set became the highest produced GPK set in 10 years. Six weeks later the return of Chrome OS 3 blew through those records. There was some doubt if a themed, non anniversary, non chrome set could see similar interest. Collectors can put that doubt aside, as 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight has once again broken all recent production records. Production is not only up, but up significantly over the 35th anniversary set. How high was the production? Read on to find out!

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

To begin we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. We need to use a card type that has the same odds across all various pack types and where we know the number made. Once again this is true of the Gold parallels. First, a couple of notes.  As a Topps tradition, they have once again overstated the parallels by double. Every release like clockwork. How do we know? Greens and Purples are listed in packs as 1:2, but are 1 per pack. Yellows listed 1:10, but actually fall 1:5. This is seen over and over with all parallel types. The other thing that has remained consistent on the odds is Fat Pack odds are once again 1/3 of a regular pack. We will count a Fat Pack as 3 retail packs to determine production. Keep that in mind as we are taking about the calculations.

Gold parallels are listed at 1:358 in Collector, Retail, and Blaster packs. Fat Packs are 1:120. Since the odds are overstated by double, I’ll be using 1:179 as the actual gold odds. There are 200 base cards in the set. This release the Golds are /50 on the back. Therefore, 200 * 50 number of golds per card = 10,000 total gold parallels * 179 odds = 1,790,000 total packs made for this release. OMG! This blows away the 35th Anniversary set, blows away Chrome OS 3. It’s nearly 300% over the set release just 1 year ago, Late to School! It’s hard to wrap your head around the production increases seen in GPKs in just one year’s time.

Now that we know total pack production, let’s try to break it down by pack type. Collector packs are easy to figure out because they have a couple of different numbered parallels or inserts exclusive to the pack. Let’s look at red parallels and patches.

  • Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 199 made per card = 1,900 total patches x 112 odds = 222,880 Collector packs made
  • Saucy Red borders – 200 cards in set X 75 made per card = 15,000 total Red borders X 15 odds = 225,000 Collector packs made

Both of these numbers are very close, and gives us a great idea how many Collector boxes were made. I’m going to use 225,000 as the pack number for Collector packs. Right here we can see where part of the significant production increases start. Almost 100,000 more collector packs than the 35th set, and again an almost 300% increase over Late to School. Why the huge increase? I don’t think it’s solely due to content. Topps didn’t advertise the set much prior to release. Since the release of Chrome OS 3, and the online on GPK Sapphire, the hobby has seen a large increase of collectors from outside brands such as sports cards. Many saw profits possible on the secondary market and jumped in on the next retail GPK release.

How about the other pack types? We need a card type from each pack type that is exclusive to that pack to break out the numbers. Once again for the second set in a row, Topps put the Blue parallels in Retail Display boxes. We already know Blue parallels are /99.

  • Spit Blue borders – 200 cards in set X 99 made per card = 19,800 total Blue borders X 18 odds = 356,400 Retail Display packs made

Again we can see more increases, and while not as high of a percent increase as Collector packs, still significant. Now how about Blaster and Fat Packs. Unfortunately, this is where we run into our first problem. Usually, we can use the odds for Loaded Puzzle and Panoramic sketches to figure out the production of Blaster packs. For an unknown reason, Topps did not include the odds for the Loaded Sketches on the Blaster Fridge Tins. GPKNews has reached out to Topps to try to get the odds, however with the recent change in Brand Managers information is hard to get. We are left with Panoramic sketch odds. The odds listed for Pano sketches are clearly incorrect on the packs. We know there were 60 artists complete sketches, each artist as asked to do 4 pano sketches. There should be 240 total pano sketches. If you multiple that by the odds 1:9897, you get over 2.3 million packs. This number is so out of whack when compared to the other numbers, I can’t begin to envision how Topps came up with it. Even if the odds were doubled on sketches, it would still be too many packs to make sense. I don’t know how to explain the pano odds, other than to say I’ve seen on previous releases the odds for one of the sketch types will be wildly incorrect. It’s unexplainable and Topps is not in the practice of explaining their methodology to others. So where does that leave us? Well, unable to break out the Blaster and Fat Pack numbers from the total Retail Pack production. That will also make it unable to figure out how many of the inserts and parallels exclusive to those packs were produced.

So what do we know? We know  there are a total of 225,000 Collector packs. Total packs are 1,790,000 – 225,000 Collector packs = 1,565,000 total retail packs. Then 1,564,000 retail packs – 356,000 Retail Display packs = 1,209,000 Blaster & Fat Packs. Again we can’t go further with more information. Also keep in mind the Fat Pack number would be 1/3, since we are counting each Fat Pack pack as 3 packs. I do think it makes sense to assume that once again Blaster packs out number Fat Packs 2:1 like the previous release.

What do the numbers tell us? That Garbage Paul Kids have exploded in popularity over the last year. It’s shocking to see how much is being produced and purchased by old and new collectors alike.

Here’s what I believe the total production numbers to be for Food Fight:

  • Total Production – 1,790,000 Packs
  • Collector – 225,000 Collector Packs or about 9,375 Collector Boxes or about 1.171 Collector Cases
  • Retail Display – 356,000 Retail Display Packs or about 14,833 RD Boxes or about 1,854 RD Cases
  • Blaster – Unable to determine
  • Fat Packs – Unable to determine

I know this sounds like a broken record, but production is up, way up. This is the third straight retail release by Topps that has seen record numbers. Numbers are so much higher than anything released from 2016-2020S1. Take a look at how production compares to recent sets.

  • Total Pack Production
    • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 748,000
    • Late to School – 670,000
    • 35th Anniversary – 1,113,000
    • Food Fight – 1,790,000 (61% increase in production vs. 35th)
  • Collector Pack Production
    • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 69,000
    • Late to School – 74,000
    • 35th Anniversary – 130,000
    • Food Fight – 225,000 (73% increase in production vs. 35th)
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Revenge of Oh the Horror-ible – 679,000
    • Late to School – 596,000
    • 35th Anniversary – 983,000
    • Food Fight – 1,565,000 (59% increase in production vs. 35th)

After figuring out the numbers on sets for the last five plus years, I continue to be amazed almost every release. Collectors will find longer odds than ever for “hits”. Odds are so long in retail products it will take multiple cases to just see a single hit in some cases. Topps however, has to be thrilled with the demand. Demand for GPK, a Topps owned brand, is a license to print money for Topps. How will this play out the rest of 2021? There are a lot of licensed products set throughout the year. There will certainly be a number of online offerings. Collectors will have to wait until late fall for 2021S2 and more Chrome. There will be another four month window at the end of 2021-2022 where collectors will have the chance at multiple retail releases. Will we continue to see huge production increases?

This is Part 1 of a 2 part series on the production of 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 will be posted soon.

2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight Explained

The last four months Topps has loaded the calendar with GPK releases. 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight marks the end to a mad dash for collectors who are trying to keep up with everything. Topps followed a similar formula as they did with recent sets like the 35th Anniversary release. The same final card artists; Joe Simko, David Gross, Brent Engstrom, and Joe McWilliams return to complete all the artwork on the 200 card, 100 a/b, set. This is the last set that was overseen by Brand Manager Jessica Kanzer, who left Topps prior to the set’s release. One thing that never changes is Topps being unable to grasp basic math. Parallel odds are again overstated by double. Also once again, production is very high for this set, it rivals or even surpasses the production of the 35th set. I’ll have articles in the coming days going over production, but it’s clear GPK is hotter than its been in a long, long time.

There are a few minor changes to the set. Insert set sizes are slightly different than previous sets, with Celebrity Chefs, 16 cards and Cereal Aisle, 24 cards. Topps also changed some of the print runs on the inserts. Artist Autographs jumped way up to /80 of each. It appears the change was made to satisfy the additional production. Patch Relics are actually lower this release at /199, while Gold parallels move back to /50. One major issue being seen in early breaks is the lack of GPK Wacky Package inserts in Collector boxes. Those have historically been 1 per box, and the odds this year show that same thing. However, early breaks show only about 15%-20% of boxes actually contain the cards. Another issue is Topps forgot to list odds for Loaded Puzzle Sketches on the Blaster boxes. Finally, Topps, for the first time, inserted a redemption card for a digital pack of GPKs on the WAX Blockchain. The artwork on the card was done by artist Nik Castaneda. This is the first time WAX NFTs are tied to a physical product and being sold in major retailers. This is groundbreaking in the NFT industry, as digital assets become more and more popular.

I will have articles in the coming days looking at production numbers in more detail. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find, and where you can find it in 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set – 100a/b (200 Cards).
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border. (Note: Odds on parallels are overstated by double.)
    • Pepper Black Border (Black)) – 1:2 – Collector (200 Cards)
    • Spit In Your Food Blue Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:36 – Retail Display (200 Cards)
    • Saucy Red Border (Red) /75 – 1:30 – Collector (200 Cards)
    • Fool’s Gold Border (Gold) /50 – 1:358 – Retail Display/Value, 1:358 – Collector, 1:120 Fat Packs (200 Cards)
    • Booger Green Border (Green) – 1:2 – Retail (200 Cards)
    • Jelly Purple Border (Purple) – 1:2 – Fat Packs (200 Cards)
    • Mustard Yellow Border (Yellow) – 1:10 – Value Box Packs (200 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:796 Collector, 1:13,196 Value, 1:13,049 Retail Display, 1:4,399 Fat Packs (400 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • GPK Wacky Packages – 1:24 – Collector (10 cards)
    • Refrigerator Magnet Card – 1:24 – Collector (12a/b – 24 Cards)
    • Cereal Aisle – 2 Per Fat Pack (12a/b – 24 Cards)
    • You Are What You Eat – 1:3 – Retail Display (5a/b – 10 Cards))
    • Celebrity Chefs – 3 Per Value Box (8a/b – 16 Total Cards)
    • GPK Wacky Packages Patches /199 – 1:112 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
    • Adam Appetite Digital Redemption  – 1 per box Collector, Blaster, Retail Display, 1:4 Fat Packs (1 Card)
    • Collectible Blue Refrigerator Tin – 1 Per Collector Box (1 Tin)
    • Collectible Refrigerator Tin – 1 Per Blaster Box (4 Tins)
    • Artist Autograph /80 – 1:40 Collector, 1:646 Retail Display, 1:646 Value, 1:215 Fat Packs (100 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
    • Sketch Card – 1:410 Retail Display/Value, 1:137 Fat Packs (60 Artists)
    • Shaped Sketch – 1:182 – Collector (60 Artists)
    • Triptych Sketch – 1:1,201 – Collector (60 Artists)
    • Loaded Sketch – 1:Unknown – Value Box (60 Artists)
    • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:9,897 – Value (60 Artists)

Collector Box Odds for 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight

Today is the official release day for 2021 Garbage Pail Kids Series 1 Food Fight. Sure enough Collector boxes begin arriving on the doorsteps of collectors. Thanks for GPK collector Jake Schaaf for sending along pictures of the odds. Just like with retail, it appears production is up for Food Fight, especially with collector boxes. The odds continue to be overstated by double on parallel cards. Blacks are one per pack, but show on the odds as 1:2. Red odds are an astronomical 1:30, even at double, some boxes will only contain 1 red. With sketch odds being higher than the 35th set, it’s clear production is up significantly for Collector boxes. These odds also answer the question where all the autos went, auto odds are very long in retail, but in Collector boxes only 1:40. The magnets are actually 2 magnets on one card, that is individually wrapped. Also in this collector’s case every tin was blue, so Collector tins might only come in one color.

2020S2 GPK 35th Anniversary Collector Pack Odds

  • Pepper Black 1:2
  • Saucy Red 1:30
  • Fool’s Gold 1:358
  • Printing Plate 1:796
  • Artist Autograph 1:40
  • GPK Wacky Packages 1:24
  • GPK Wacky Packages Parch Card 1:112
  • Shaped Sketch 1:182
  • Tryptych Sketch 1:1,201
  • Refrigerator Magnet Card 1:24


Retail Odds for 2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight

2021 Series 1 Garbage Pail Kids Food Fight doesn’t officially release until 2/24, but that hasn’t stopped some stores from putting them out early. Thanks to collector gpkkilla for sending along the odds for the refrigerator tins he found at Walmart. Thanks for collector Jake Schaaf for sending the odd along for the Retail Display packs. Once again, in keeping with Topps “math”, the odds are overstated by double on the packs. Just like the 35th series, inexplicably, the odds for the green parallels are listed as 1:2 in packs, when each pack comes with 1 green. Yellows are also overstated by double as this collector pulled 2 in his tins. I imagine the odds will be double on all parallels, but we will need more breaks to confirm. Production appears to be very high, and near or even exceeding the 35th anniversary. Odds for plates and panoramic sketches are very long. Gold odds are actually harder than the 35th. One big disappointment is the odds for Loaded Sketches do not appear on the box like they usually do. GPKNews will reach out to Topps for confirmation the Loaded Sketches were inserted. Finally, the 1 per box redemption for a pack of digital GPKs on the WAX Blockchain features the artwork of Nik Castaneda, who did the art for the digital cards. As of press time the website to redeem the digital cards has not been activated by Topps. Odds for Fat Packs  will be added to this article once we get them.

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Value (Blaster) Pack/Box Odds

  • Booger Green 1:2
  • Mustard Yellow 1:10
  • Fool’s Gold 1:358
  • Printing Plate 1:13,196
  • Artist Autograph 1:646
  • Sketch Card 1:410
  • Panoramic Sketch 1:9,897
  • Loaded Sketch Not Listed (Boxes)

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Retail Display Odds

  • Green 1:2
  • Spit In Your Food Blue 1:36
  • Fool’s Gold 1:358
  • Printing Plate 1:13,049
  • Artist Autograph 1:646
  • You Are What You Eat 1:3
  • Regular Sketch 1:410

2021S1 GPK Food Fight Fat Pack Retail Odds

  • Jelly Purple 1:2
  • Fool’s Gold 1:120
  • Printing Plate 1:4,399
  • Artist Autograph 1:215
  • Regular Sketch 1:137

2020 Garbage Pail Kids Sapphire Box Odds and Print Run

The surprise launch of 2020 Garbage Pail Kids Sapphire is starting to hit collector’s mailboxes. We now have a look at the printed odds on the box, and wouldn’t you know it, Topps makes it as confusing as ever! Thanks to ebay user cardsarewhatwedo for sending along the odds and pictures of his box break. Each box contains 8 packs of 4 cards, wrapped in unmarked silver wrappers. There are unnumbered Dark Blue base cards in each pack. The odds are printed along the side of the box. For some reason Topps left off the odds for the Light Blue /99, and Green /50 parallels. The odds printed on the box are:

  • Orange 1:4
  • Gold 1:7
  • Purple 1:10
  • Red 1:20
  • Padparadscha 1:96

Now this is where it gets confusing. The side of the box says the odds are “per pack”. However, all the evidence suggests the odds are actually per box. Printed on the top of the box it says “2 Parallels Inside”. In addition, collectors breaking boxes today have all pulled between 2-3 parallels per box. When looking at the math and numerous box breaks, it’s apparent the odds printed are per box.

So let’s look at the print run. How many boxes did Topps make? Based on the odds being per box:

  • Orange 166 cards in set * /25 = 4150 total Orange cards * 4 odds = 16,600 boxes
  • Gold 166 cards in set * /15 = 2490 total Gold cards * 7 odds = 17,430 boxes
  • Purple 166 cards in set * /10 = 1660 total Orange cards * 10 odds = 16,600 boxes
  • Red 166 cards in set * /5 = 830 total Red cards * 20 odds = 16,600 boxes
  • Padparadscha 166 cards in set * * /1 = 166 total Padparadscha cards in set * 96 odds = 15,936 boxes

It appears there are right around 16,600 boxes produced of the set. How many parallels can a collector expect per box?

  • 34,030 total parallels in set / 16,600 boxes = 2.05 parallels per box

At 2.05 parallels per box, that comes out to right what is printed on the top of the box, “2 parallels inside”. So how many base cards are there?

  • Base Cards 32 cards per box – 2.05 parallels per box = 29.95 base cards per box * 16,600 total boxes = 497,170 total base cards / 166 cards in set = 2,995 per base card.

So there are right around 3,000 of each base card printed. While that seems like a lot it pales in comparison to the 45,000+ of each base card in Chrome OS3.

How Many 2020 Garbage Pail Kids OS 3 Chrome Cards Were Produced?

It took six years for Topps to produce a new GPK Chrome set. They thought it wouldn’t sell. With collectibles at a higher popularity in a long time due to Covid-19, and this year being the 35th anniversary of GPKs, it was a perfect storm of events for Topps to give Chrome another try. Apparently selling it wasn’t a problem for them. Production, as you will see, is very high for this set, higher than Chrome OS 1, and the largest produced GPK product since odds started. Let’s dive in and see what the various numbers look like. Just how much Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3 is out there…

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However, we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back up to 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to read about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

Usually I do a two part production article for retail releases. This time everything is in one article. Most of the parallels are already numbered, and there aren’t really any inserts, so there isn’t as much to take a look at. However, there is still the big picture! First, we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. A note to collectors who are used to Topps printing incorrect odds on packs. For the most part, based on early breaks, the odds appears to be accurate. Second, usually to figure out total production run we need one card type with the same odds across all pack types. Well with Chrome OS 3, that doesn’t exist. So we will have to go in reverse to figure out production.

Hobby production is easy to figure out since there are two card types that are exclusive to Hobby, and we know the print run already, Gold and Black. Let’s take a look at those.

  • Gold borders – 100 cards in set * 50 made per card = 5000 total Gold borders * 112 odds = 560,000 total Hobby packs
  • Black borders – 100 cards in set * 99 made per card = 9900 total Black borders * 57 odds = 564,399 total Hobby packs

Two observations, 1) Those two numbers are very close, and 2) Holy smokes that’s a lot of hobby packs!!! Topps printed a lot of this set! The difference in  the numbers can be attributed to rounding by Topps. I’m confident in going with 560,000 as the Hobby pack number. Now we need to figure out retail packs. There isn’t anything exclusive to retail packs that’s numbered. However, since we know the Hobby pack number we can try to figure out how many of a parallel is available just in Hobby packs. Let’s look at Superfractors.

  • Superfractors 560,000 Hobby packs / 9,200 odds = 60 Supers in Hobby. 100 total Supers in set – 60 Supers in Hobby = 40 Supers in Retail.

We know there are 40 Supers inserted in all retail pack types. So let’s use the retail odds to figure out how many retail packs were made. First a note on Retail Fat Packs and odds. In order to figure out the odds we will assume Fat packs equal three Blaster packs. Why? Fat packs have 3 times the cards as a Blaster pack, and the odds are 1/3 for almost every parallel type. I’ll be using the Blaster odds for the retail calculations the rest of the article.

  • Superfractors in Retail 40 * 22,077 = 883,080 Total Retail packs.

That’s a big number! Topps did print a lot of Hobby packs, so it stands to reason there’s a lot of Retail packs as well. How can we be sure? We can double check the numbers by using other parallels where the Fat pack odds are 1/3 of Blaster odds. In this case we can use Green, Purple, Orange, Red, and Autos. Let’s first figure out how many of each are in Hobby vs. Retail.

  • Green Refractors 560,000 Hobby packs / 29 odds = 19,310 Greens in Hobby. 29,900 total Greens – 19,310 Greens in Hobby = 10,590 Greens in Retail * 71 odds in retail = 751,890 Total Retail packs.
  • Purple Refractors 560,000 Hobby packs / 34 odds = 16,470 Purples in Hobby. 25,000 total Purples – 16,470 Purples in Hobby = 8,530 Purples in Retail * 85 odds in retail = 725,050 Total Retail packs.
  • Orange Refractors 560,000 Hobby packs / 113 odds = 4,955 Oranges in Hobby. 7,500 total Oranges – 4,955 Oranges in Hobby = 2,545 Oranges in Retail * 282 odds in retail = 717,690 Total Retail packs.
  • Red Refractors 560,000 Hobby packs / 1,693 odds = 330 Reds in Hobby. 500 total Reds – 330 Reds in Hobby = 170 Reds in Retail * 4,404 odds in retail = 748,680 Total Retail packs.
  • Artist Autographs 560,000 Hobby packs / 2,432 odds = 230 Autos in Hobby. 500 total Autos – 230 Autos in Hobby = 270 Autos in Retail * 2,453 odds in retail = 662,310 Total Retail packs.

Uh oh, we have a problem. Take a look at the bold, total retail pack numbers above. The Green, Purple, Orange, and Red numbers all all fairly close. So why are the Super numbers so high, and the Auto numbers so low? Honestly, I have no idea. That’s too big of a different to just be rounding. The odds have to be off somewhere by Topps. So what number should we use for retail packs? I’d feel comfortable using something in the 700k range since the majority of parallels came out in that range. We are going to go with 750,000 for the retail pack number. Just know there’s a chance it’s anywhere between 660k and 880k. The 750,000 number remember, is counting Fat packs as 3 retail packs. Unfortunately, we are unable to breakout the Fat pack production from the Blaster production. We would have to have a card type exclusive to the pack type in order to do that. So all we can figure out is the total retail production.

Now we know the total production numbers. Let’s take a look and compare it to previous Chrome releases. While, I didn’t do a complete deep dive into Chrome 1 & 2 numbers, I did figure out production numbers using Superfractor and Gold Refractor odds.

  • Total Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 1,096,370
    • Chrome OS 2 – 513,260
    • Chrome OS 3 – 1,310,000
  • Hobby Pack Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 407,000
    • Chrome OS 2 – 71,500
    • Chrome OS 3 – 560,000
  • Retail Pack Production
    • Chrome OS 1 – 689,370
    • Chrome OS 2 – 441,760
    • Chrome OS 3 – 750,000

As you can see Chrome OS 3 easily tops both previous Chrome sets in all categories. The production rivals OS 1, which was grossly over produced at the time, as Topps misread demand for the product. The difference now could be as simple as demand for GPK is much higher than it was in 2013. We won’t know for sure until a few months down the road, and we can see if unopened product dries up, or prices tank. Chrome OS 3 pack production also passes pack production of the recently released 2020S2 35th Anniversary set.

Usually there is a second part to this production review going over unnumbered parallel and insert print runs. Sadly, because we can not break out the pack production between Fat Packs and Blasters with Chrome OS 3, we are unable to accurately determine the number of Atomic Refractors, regular Refractors, and C Name Variations. So let’s do some wild speculation, and try to get a roundabout idea how many of each there are. In the 35th Anniversary release the Blaster to Fat Pack ratio was roughly 3:1. So I’m going to use that same logic here. Our retail pack production number is 750,000. If we say there are 100,000 Fat packs, that’s equal to 300,000 of our production number. That leaves 450,000 Blaster packs. Historically, there are always significantly more Blasters than Fat packs, so I feel pretty good about the numbers. Just keep in mind, this is the wild speculation portion of the article. I normally wouldn’t try to go this far to guess production, but a number of collectors have inquired about C cards. Just know the numbers below are just getting us a ballpark number, but it shouldn’t be that far off of an actual number.

  • C Name Variation – 560,000 Hobby pack + 450,000 Blaster packs + 100,000 Fat packs / 101 odds = 10,990 total C cards / 50 cards in set = 219 each C Name Variation.
  • Refractors – (560,000 Hobby Packs / 3 odds) + (450,000 Blaster Packs / 5 odds) + (100,000 Fat pack Refractors @ 1 per pack = 376,666 Total Refractors / 100 cards in set = 3,766 each regular Refractor
  • Atomic Refractors – 450,000 Blaster packs / 5 per box = 90,000 total Blaster boxes * 3 Atomics per box = 270,000 total Atomics / 100 cards in set = 2,700 each Atomic Refractor.

The bottom line is Topps has been running the presses overtime for GPK the last few months. No wonder both recently released sets were delayed! Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3 is the largest produced set since Topps began using odds and numbering cards for GPK. We can’t figure out production for OS, ANS, or Flashback sets. Since Flashback however, this is the largest produced set. Is this the new normal for GPK? The last two releases have seen production numbers unlike anything seen on over 10 years. However, 2020 has seen an increase for the collectibles market across the board. I saw a comment on the Blowout Card Message Boards from someone who was a seasoned card collector, but new to GPKs. He was impressed that GPK Chrome OS 3 wasn’t overproduced. So, its all a matter of perspective. GPK has for many years been a niche product for Topps, but is now starting to move up into the big boys category. The question is, can this demand continue into 2021 with the next retail release 2021S1 Food Fight?

Finally, can we figure out how many base cards were produced? Not really, but we can use what we know and give it our best guess! From breaks I’ve seen about 13-14 packs per hobby box have some sort of parallel. It seems retail is slightly less as often. So let’s use 3.5 base cards per pack as an average.

Base Cards – 1,310,000 total packs * 3.5 base cards per pack = 4,585,000 Total Base Cards produced / 100 cards per set = 45,850 Total of each base card.

That’s 10,000 more base sets than the 35th Anniversary set!!! Just how much are people trying to charge for sets?

2020 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3 Explained

After six years, and a whole lot of begging, Topps finally gave in and released Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3. While it’s been just a few weeks since the 35th anniversary set was released, excitement is high for the new release. Topps has followed a similar formula as they have with recent chrome sets. The set highlights Original Series 3, first released in early 1986. All 82 base cards are in the base set, along with 18 new cards. The 18 new cards are comprised of 9 new pieces from David Gross (2), Joe Simko (2), Joe McWilliams (2), and Brent Engstrom (3). The gags on the new cards all relate to chrome items. Card backs for some reason do not included the original Tom Bunk backs, but instead new back artwork and writing done by Colin Walton. Checklist and puzzle pieces still appear on some card backs. Numbering for the set follows OS 3 numbering 84a/b-124a/b, with the new cards numbered AN1a/b – AN9a/b. In a change from the first two GPK Chrome sets, the base cards no longer have a white border. Instead the border is silver, making it harder to distinguish between a refractor and base card.

Topps also made a number of changes from the sell sheets to the parallels. They added Green, Green Wave, Purple, Purple Wave, Orange, and Red parallels to all pack types. Black Wave was added to Hobby. Unlike the first two sets, this time every card, including the new cards, have a “C” name variation. Artist Autographs will be harder to come by this time, as Topps was unable to get John Pound to sign cards for the set. However, Tom Bunk, David Gross, Joe Simko, Joe McWilliams, and Brent Engstrom all signed cards in the set. Bunk signed 11 of the 12 cards he painted for OS 3, there is no Blake Flake autographed card.

By all early indications, Topps printed a lot of this series. Odds are very long, and some of the parallels will be very hard to pull. I will have articles in the coming days going over production numbers. To see the official Topps checklist click here. For now here is what you can find and where you can find it in 2020 Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3.

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set –  (100 Cards).
    • OS 3 84a/b – 124a/b (82 Cards)
    • New Art AN1a/b – AN9a/b (18 Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different color border or background pattern.
    • Refractor – 1:5 – Value Pack, 1:3 – Hobby, 1:1 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Green Refractor /299 – 1:71 – Value Pack, 1:29 – Hobby, 1:24 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Green Wave Refractor /299 – 1:71 – Value Pack, 1:29 – Hobby, 1:24 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Purple Refractor /250 – 1:85 – Value Pack, 1:34 – Hobby, 1:24 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Purple Wave Refractor /250 – 1:85 – Value Pack, 1:34 – Hobby, 1:24 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Prism Refractor /199 – 1:107 – Value Pack, 1:57 – Hobby, 1:48 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • X-Fractor /150 – 1:142 – Value Pack, 1:58 – Hobby, 1:32 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Black Refractor /99 – 1:57 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Black Wave Refractor /99 – 1:57 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Gold Refractor /50 – 1:112 – Hobby (100 Cards)
    • Orange Refractor /75 – 1:282 – Value Pack, 1:113 – Hobby, 1:95 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Red Refractor /5 – 1:4,404 – Value Pack, 1:1,683 – Hobby, 1:1,419 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Superfractor 1/1 – 1:22,077 – Value Pack, 1:9,200 – Hobby, 1:7,335 Fat Packs (100 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:5,315 – Value Pack, 1:3,543 – Hobby, 1:1,761 Fat Packs (400 Total Plates – 4 per card A & B)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • C Name Variations – 1:101 – Value Pack, 1:101 – Hobby, 1:101 Fat Packs (50 Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:2,453 – Value Pack, 1:2,432 – Hobby, 1:815 Fat Packs (20 Cards – 89a, 90a, 94a, 95a, 103a, 111a, 112a, 115a, 116a, 122a, 124a. AN1a-AN9a)

Hobby Pack Odds for Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3

After retail packs started hitting store shelves over the weekend, Hobby packs are now starting to surface. Thanks to eBay seller mfeather2006 for sending over pictures of the pack odds. Like with retail, Topps added some new content not advertised on the sell sheets. The same parallels found in retail also are in Hobby packs. In addition, there are exclusive Gold, Black, and Black Wave Refractors. Like with Retail, odds on Hobby packs are also long. At first look, production for this set is higher than Chrome OS 1. Collectors should start seeing shipments soon for preorders, officially release day still stands at 12/2/20.

2020 GPK Chrome OS 3 Hobby Pack Odds

  • Refractor 1:3
  • Green Refractor 1:29
  • Green Wave Refractor 1:29
  • Purple Refractor 1:34
  • Purple Wave Refractor 1:34
  • Black Refractor 1:57
  • Black Wave Refractor 1:57
  • Prism Refractor 1:57
  • X-Fractor 1:58
  • Orange Refractor 1:113
  • Gold 1:112
  • Red Refractor 1:1,693
  • Superfractor 1:9,200
  • Printing Plate 1:3,543
  • Artist Autograph 1:2,432
  • C Name Variation 1:101

Retail Pack Odds for Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3

While we are still a few days away from the official release date, and Topps has yet to release the checklist, Garbage Pail Kids Chrome OS 3 has started showing up on store shelves. Wal-Mart was first to post blaster boxes for sale late Thursday night on their website. Then this morning GPK collector Kurt Parriott found some in his local Target. Thanks to Kurt for sending over images of the pack wrappers! Perhaps the biggest surprise is the addition of numerous parallels not mentioned on the sell sheet. Green (Wave), Purple (Wave), Orange, and Red have all been added to the production. Odds seem to be long at first glance, but without more information like numbering on various parallels, it’s tough to tell. I will have articles in the coming days going over production numbers. For now here are the retail odds for GPK Chrome OS 3.

2020 GPK Chrome OS 3 Fat Pack Odds

  • Green Refractor 1:24
  • Green Wave Refractor 1:24
  • Purple Refractor 1:29
  • Purple Wave Refractor 1:29
  • Prism Refractor 1:48
  • X-Fractor 1:32
  • Orange Refractor 1:95
  • Red Refractor 1:1,419
  • Superfractor 1:7,335
  • Printing Plate 1:1,761
  • Artist Autograph 1:815
  • C Name Variation 1:101

2020 GPK Chrome OS 3 Value Pack (Blaster) Odds

  • Refractor 1:5
  • Green Refractor 1:71
  • Green Wave Refractor 1:71
  • Purple Refractor 1:85
  • Purple Wave Refractor 1:85
  • Prism Refractor 1:107
  • X-Fractor 1:142
  • Orange Refractor 1:282
  • Red Refractor 1:4,404
  • Superfractor 1:22,077
  • Printing Plate 1:5,315
  • Artist Autograph 1:2,453
  • C Name Variation 1:101