How Many 2016 GPK Apple Pie Cards Were Produced? Part 1

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids Apple Pie. Part 2 can be found here.

wrapperThe 30th Anniversary Garbage Pail Kids set was highly anticipated from collectors. Topps saw the demand and produced a healthy amount of cards to go around. With the release of the 2016 GPK Apple Pie set would Topps follow suit, or change things around? We already know some of this information. Topps, while deciding to keep the large base set, completely changed the way parallels are done. They even started putting production numbers on many of the parallel sets. However, there is still a lot of information we can get by looking at sell sheet data, and pack odds.

First my disclaimer! Production numbers are never an exact science, and Topps makes it tough on us. In order to attempt to solve this riddle we need to look very closely at the clues in both the odds and the sell sheets. Some things to keep in mind for this post. 1) Topps doesn’t want the public to know exactly how much of each card was made. Why? No idea really, I think its dumb, but historically Topps only provides enough information to get close. 2) We need to make some assumptions. Those assumptions will be based on the clues we have, but still some guessing has to happen. 3) The odds never quite seem to come out completely equal. However we can round and get pretty close to how much was produced. 4) Topps changes what is printed from what the sell sheet says all the time. This will throw off all our numbers. 5) Keep in mind Topps historically holds back 5% of the print run to cover missing hits, damaged cards, and their No Purchase Necessary program. These numbers would include that 5%. With all that in mind let’s get started…(Warning lots of math coming up. If you don’t want to hear about the process, skip to the bottom for the answer sheet!)

File Jan 19, 11 33 22 PMFirst we need to figure out how many packs were made for the entire print run. In order to do that we can only use a card type where the odds are exactly the same in Hobby, Collector, and Retail packs. This year there is only one type of card where that is the case, Gold Dust borders, at 1:44. In the past Topps would also keep Printing Plate odds the same throughout production, but they threw a bone to Collector packs this set, more on that in Part 2. Here’s what we know, there are 220 cards in the set. Gold Dust cards are numbered on the back this year to /50. Therefore, 220 cards X 50 number of golds per card = 11,000 total Gold Dust cards X 44 Odds = 484,000 total packs made for the release. Here’s our first point where things could go wrong. There is only 1 type of card where the odds are the same throughout all pack types, so there isn’t another way to double check our numbers. Topps could have held more Gold borders back, or maybe the odds were printed wrong. As I mentioned above, we have to use what we have available. After completely going through the numbers I’m confident this is a good starting point and has to be close to what was produced.

Now let’s try to figure out how many of each pack type was created for this release. Collector packs are always the easiest to figure out because they always contain cards that are exclusively made for the set. There are three inserts that are exclusive to Collector boxes; Artist Relics, Patches, and Duel Artist Sketch Cards.

  • Artist Relics – 6 cards in set X 99 made per card = 594 total relics X 61 odds = 36,234 Collector packs made
  • Patch Cards – 10 cards in set X 50 made per card = 500 total patches X 73 odds = 36,500 Collector packs made
  • Duel Artist Sketches – 100 total sketches X 362 odds = 36,200 Collector packs made

As you can see really close numbers. Why don’t they match? Well, who knows really? Like I mentioned, the odds are never all exact, could be some rounding on Topps part. But the fact that all three are less than 300 packs apart, I think we have a good idea how many Collector packs were made. I’m going to go with the 36,500 number for our purpose throughout the rest of the post.

hobbychecklistNow lets move onto Hobby packs. We can figure out how many Hobby packs were made by looking at something that only Collector and Hobby packs have in common. We can use Die-cut sketches to figure out Hobby packs.

  • So 36,500 Collector packs / 144 odds = 253 Die cut sketches in Collector packs.
  • 500 total die-cut sketches – 253 = 247 die-cut sketches in Hobby packs
  • 247 X 158 odds = 39,026 total Hobby packs produced

Let’s call that an even 39,000 for Hobby packs. Now that we’ve figured out Hobby/Collector production, let’s work on retail. Previously we determined there were 484,000 total packs produced. So we could simply go 484,000 total packs – 36,500 Collector packs – 39,000 Hobby packs = 408,500 total Retail packs produces. We can check our math by using another card type that is in both Hobby/Collector and Retail, the Artist Autographs. How many autos are there? 110 cards in set X 25 autos per card = 2750 total autos. Let’s see how the individual odds break that down with our pack totals we previously figured out.

  • 36,500 Collector packs / 65 Odds = 561 autos in Collector packs
  • 39,000 Hobby packs / 200 Odds = 195 autos in Hobby packs
  • 2750 total autos – 561 Collector autos – 195 Hobby autos = 1994 autos in Retail packs
  • 1994 Retail autos X 200 odds = 398,800 Total retail packs.

398,800 and 408,500 are pretty close considering the large number of packs. This is one of the reasons why I’m confident we are on the right track with the production numbers for the set. I’m going to go with 408,500 total Retail packs as the number we use going forward.

File Jan 15, 6 06 04 PMUsually I’d be happy just getting these numbers. In the past its been impossible to figure out how many different types of retail packs; gravity, retail, blaster, jumbo, blister, etc. Topps produces. However, this time Topps did something interesting. They added a different type of sketch into Blaster boxes, and Jumbo packs. Therefore, we are able to determine for the first time how many Jumbo and Blaster packs were produced.

100 total Panoramic Sketches X 401 odds = 40,100 total Jumbo packs produced.
250 total Loaded Sketches x 68 odds = 17,000 total Blaster boxes X 4 packs per box = 68,000 total Blaster packs produced.

That’s going to leave us with…

408,500 total retail packs – 80,200 Jumbo pack equivalent (Topps considers Jumbo packs as 2 packs in the odds, so we need to double this number as the total retail pack numbers represents total 10 card packs.) = 328,300 – 68,000 Blaster packs = 260,300 Retail packs left. Unfortunately, we can’t breakdown the retail packs any further. The 260,300 represents Gravity feed, Regular Retail, and Blister packs. There is just not enough information in the odds or sell sheets to go any further.

Here’s the bottom line. I’m pretty confident that these numbers are close. Here is what I believe to be the production for each type of pack:

  • Total Production – 484,000 Packs
  • Hobby – 39,000 Hobby Packs or 1625 Hobby boxes or 203 Hobby Cases
  • Collector – 36,500 Collector Packs or 1520 Hobby Boxes or 190 Collector Cases
  • Retail – 408,500 Retail Packs
    • Jumbo Retail – 40,100 Jumbo Packs
    • Blaster Boxes – 68,000 Blaster Packs or 17,000 Blaster Boxes

(Once again my numbers could be off. We had to make some assumptions and trust the sell sheets and odds. But I’m confident these numbers are really close.)

So what does this all mean? What stands out to me as surprising or interesting after running the numbers? First off, WOW!, they print a whole lot of retail product. There is almost the same number of Blaster packs as Hobby and Collector combined! More Jumbo packs than either Hobby or Collector packs. There is going to be retail on store shelves for months.

The other thing that stood out to me right away is production is down compared to the 30th set. In fact its down quite a bit. Let’s compare the two looking back at the numbers we figured out for the 30th set:

Total Pack Production: 30th – 669,000 packs \ Apple Pie – 484,000 packs (27.7% decrease in production)
Hobby Pack Production: 30th – 51,000 packs \ Apple Pie – 39,000 packs (23.5% decrease in production)
Collector Pack Production: 30th – 41,000 packs \ Apple Pie – 36,500 packs (11.0% decrease in production)
Retail Pack Production: 30th 577,000 packs \ Apple Pie – 408,500 packs (29.2% decrease in production)

Topps prints to order their product. Which means based on distributor pre-orders Topps decides how much product to produce. Its obvious the demand isn’t the same for the new set compared to the 30th set. This gives you a good idea how much, almost a 30% decline in production. Something interesting however, Collector production only fell by 11%, its clear collectors enjoy busting collector packs. Its also clear collectors don’t want Hobby boxes. Since the debut of Collector boxes, Topps has made Hobby box odds almost similar to Retail odds, and collectors are responding. One other thing to wonder, did the large decrease in retail orders cause Topps to increase the inserts and hits in retail product this year?

All fun stuff to think about as you bust into those new packs! Let me know your thoughts on the numbers in the comments!

This is Part 1 of a two part series on the production of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids Apple Pie. In Part 2 we will look at production numbers for all parallel and insert sets. Part 2 can be found here.

 

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail

2016 Garbage Pail Kids Apple Pie Explained

wrapperAfter a successful 30th Anniversary set, Topps took a 6 month break before offering collectors a new set. With the release of 2016 Garbage Pail Kids As American As Apple Pie In Your Face, Topps kept some changes they made with the 30th set, while at the same time completely changing the way other aspects of the release is handled. Returning once again is the large 220 base card set, broken into different subsets with card numbers on the backs. Topps decided to completely revamp the parallels not only in look and name, but also numbering many parallels on the cards backs for the first time in a regular GPK set. Familiar inserts and “hits” also return to the series. Topps also decided not to print checklist card backs for this set. Topps did release a checklist which you can find here. Production is way down on this set compared to the 30th set. I’ll have a couple of articles breaking down production numbers in the coming days. For now here is what you can find in 2016 GPK Apple Pie!

(Note: I will continue to update this post as new information comes to light and any new parallels/inserts are found.)

  • Base Set – 220 total cards made up of 9 different subsets.
    • As American As Apple Pie (42a/b – 84 Total Cards)
    • 2016 Presidential Candidate (5a/b – 10 Total Cards)
    • Americana Devolved (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • US Historical Events (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • American Icons (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • American Inventors (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • America’s Pastimes (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • Americana Sweep Under the Rug (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • US Summer Olya-Picks (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
  • Parallel Sets – Same exact cards from the Base set, except with a different speckled color border.
    • Bruised Border (Dark Blue/Black) – 1:1 – Collector (220 Cards)
    • Spit Border (Light Blue) /99 – 1:4 – Hobby/Collector (220 Cards)
    • Bloody Nose Border (Red) /75 – 1:3 – Collector (220 Cards)
    • Gold Dust Border (Gold) /50 – 1:44 – Retail/Hobby/Collector (220 Cards)
    • Puke Border (Green) – 1:1 – Retail (220 Cards)
    • Pee Border (Yellow) – 1:4 – Target Retail Gravity Feed (220 Cards)
    • Printing Plates – 1:241 Collector, 1:1536 Hobby/Retail, 1:746 Retail Jumbo (440 Total Plates – 4 per card artwork)
  • Insert Sets – All the various insert subsets that can be found in packs.
    • Comic Cover – 1:24 – Hobby/Collector (4a/b – 8 Total Cards)
    • Horror Sticker – 1:24 – Hobby Collector (4a/b – 8 Total Cards)
    • Classic Patriots – 2 Per Jumbo Retail (9a/b – 18 Total Cards)
    • Gross Bears – 3 Per SE Blaster Box (1-5,1L – 6 Total Cards)
    • Bathroom Buddies – 3 Per EA Blaster Box (3a/b – 6 Total Cards)
    • Adam Bomb/Boom Americana – 2 Per Blister Pack (2a/b – 4 Total cards)
    • Patch Card /50 – 1:73 – Collector (10 Total Cards)
    • Artist Relics /99 – 1:61 – Collector (6 Total Cards)
    • Artist Autograph /25 – 1:65 Collector, 1:200 Hobby/Retail (110 Total Cards – 1 per card artwork)
    • Sketch Card – 1:266 – Retail (22 Artists/2000 Total Sketches)
    • Die-Cut Sketch – 1:158 Hobby 1:144 – Collector (22 Artists/500 Total Sketches)
    • Double Artist Panoramic Sketch – 1:362 – Collector (?? Artists/100 Total Sketches)
    • Loaded Sketch – 1:68 – Blaster Box (?? Artists/250 Total Sketches)
    • Panoramic Sketch Cards – 1:401 – Jumbo Retail (?? Artists/100 Total Sketches)
Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail

GPK 30th Production Part 2

collectoroddsThis is Part 2 of a study on how large the print run was in the Garbage Pail Kids 30th Anniversary set. If you missed part 1 you can go here to get caught up.

In the first article, based on information from the odds and sell sheets, I wrote about how many packs/boxes/cases were made for Hobby/Collector/Retail for the GPK 30th set.

We have 577,000 Retail Packs + 51,000 Hobby Packs + 41,000 Collector Packs = 669,000 Packs.

I’ll be using those numbers to attempt to figure how how many of each card/parallel were made. This can give you a good idea how tough a set will be to put together or how rare that last card you need for your rainbow is! As a reminder I had to use some educated guesswork and assumptions to come to these numbers. But I’m pretty sure we are in the ballpark.

So how many of each card was made? We aren’t able to answer this for all cards. Some of this is easy, Topps gave away this information on the sell sheet! According to the sell sheet there are 384 Italian Stamp Relics, 500 Die-Cut sketches, 19 Pen Relics, 15 total Triple Autos, 40 total Duel Autos, etc.

Other card types are impossible to figure out because not enough information is provided. For example on the retail side its not possible to determine how many Wal-Mart Blue parallels there are, or how many Poop-allels there are. While we know how many retail packs were made, we don’t know the break down between Gravity Feeds, Blasters, Jumbo, regular retail boxes, and Wal-Mart packs. We can only figure out print runs for things that have the same odds across all pack types or items in Hobby/Collector boxes.

Let’s start with Collector Boxes. The Collector Box inserts are easy to figure out:

Medallions: 41,000 Packs / 92 Odds = 445 total medallions / 6 = 75 of each medallion made. So at most only 75 collectors will have a set of these.

Barf Bags: 1708 Boxes / 1 per box (duh!) = 1708 total Barf Bags / 10 = 170 of each bag made.

Artist Relics: 41,000 Packs / 28 Odds = 1464 total relics / 4 or 5 (Its tough here because there are no odds for the “celebrity relic” so is it already part of the relic odds or is it separate? We don’t know.) = 366 or 292 of each relic depending on if Goldburg is included in the odds.

Loaded Sketch Cards: 41,000 Packs / 831 Odds = 49 Total Loaded Sketches

Let’s get Hobby boxes into the mix here as well. How many of the popular Foreign Legion cards are there?

Foreign Legion: 92,000 total packs / 24 odds = 3833 Total Foreign Legion cards / 10 = 383 of each Foreign Legion card made.

Now let’s grab all the odds and see how many parallel cards and the common inserts were made. Remember due to Topps confusing wording on packs, listed pack odds are actually 1/2 of what’s printed. I’ll be using the real odds in my numbers below. Also note when looking at these, the sell sheet says there are 85 copies of each Gold Border card.

Sepia/Pink Border Cards: 41,000 packs / 24 odds = 1708 total / 220 = 8 of each card made, and that’s with me rounding up! I know this number is hard to believe, but unless Topps is completely lying on the odds for Collector boxes there are just not that many of these to be had. Get yours when you see it!

Red/Character Back Card: 41,000 packs / 1 odds = 41,000 total / 220 = 186 of each card made.

Silver Border Card: 92,000 packs / 24 odds = 3833 total / 220 = 17 of each Silver border made.

Green Border Card: 577,000 Packs / 1 = 577,000 total / 220 = 2622 of each Green Border

Black Border: 669,000 Packs / 2 = 334,500 total / 220 = 1520 of each Black border

Famous Movie Scene: 669,000 Packs / 4 odds = 167,250 total / 15 = 11,150 of each

Horror Film: 669,000 Packs / 8 odds = 83,625 / 5 = 16,725 of each

Super Fan Tattoo: 669,000 Packs / 12 odds = 55,750 / 5 = 11,150 of each

Interesting numbers I think. I was shocked to see how some of the numbers came out. Now don’t take these numbers as gospel because like I’ve stated some guesswork and assumptions had to be used. But I think these general numbers are close to what’s really out there. I’d love to hear your comments on the numbers, and the method I used. If I’m off anywhere please let me know!

Finally, can we figure out how man base cards were made? Not exactly, but I’ll make a guess. Collector packs have 3 base cards, unless a thick card is in the pack. Hobby/Retail have 8 or 9 base cards depending on number of inserts in the pack. Because of this, even using my rounded guesswork numbers its still not really possible. Let’s see what we come up with anyway. I’m going to use 8.75 base cards per Hobby/Retail pack and 3 base cards per Collector pack for my numbers.

Base Cards: 41,000 Collector Packs x 3 cards per pack = 123,000 Base + (628,000 Hobby/Retail packs x 8.75 cards per pack) = 5,618,000 Base / 220 = Approx. 25,536 of each base card made.

Plenty of sets to go around!

Facebooktwittergoogle_plusmail